O. Oldenburg, Oliver Oldenberg, Syed Monjur Murshed, E. Kremers, K. Mainzer, Adam Koch
{"title":"Model-Based Analysis of Urban Energy Systems (on the Basis of a City's Energy Master Plan)","authors":"O. Oldenburg, Oliver Oldenberg, Syed Monjur Murshed, E. Kremers, K. Mainzer, Adam Koch","doi":"10.17357/03A4747A4B28258C105148D3775522A1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17357/03A4747A4B28258C105148D3775522A1","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractAs half of the world's population live in cities today, the topic of urbanization and urban energy systems shift continuously into society's focus. It has become a common challenge for local governments to provide a so called \"Master Plan\", outlining a long term vision for the city's energy infrastructure, to which all planners and investors have to adhere. Being a top-down approach, these Master plans are first of all politically motivated documents, which focus on achieving given targets, such as CO2-emission reductions or higher shares of electric mobility. Originating from these targets, a set of milestones and measures is derived, e.g., the implementation of certain green technologies or refurbishments of buildings. The goal of this paper is to elaborate a model, which allows to analyze a Master Plan from a bottom-up perspective and thereby to be able to quantitatively assess the plan with regards to its feasibility, while identifying possible bottlenecks in their implementation. The results can then serve the city planners to adapt their planning in order to avoid unforeseen problems, when putting the plan's measures into practice. The approach pursued in this research is a combination of system dynamics and an agent-based simulation model of the city's energy system, having both a high spatial and temporal granularity. The model is developed with the multi-method modelling tool Anylogic and Geographic Information System (GIS). The city itself is implemented with its existing building and power infrastructure, which is then subject to the planned measures and developments. The core of the model implements on the one hand different energy generation technologies, both fossil fuels and renewables, reaching from big power plants to small local PV-installations on a private household's roof. On the other hand, the heat and electricity consumers are represented through the buildings. The aim of the model is, at first, to provide a support system to analyze the short and long term effects of the Master Plan. Since its measures are usually not planned in detail concerning exact location or timing of the realization, the simulation results can provide references on these specific details. Secondly, the findings are used to identify the impact of single planned measures and their combinations which answers the questions of how, when and where local electricity and heat producers and the energy efficiency measures influence one another and if they have synergetic or competitive effects. Finally, a set of recommendations is derived from the analyses, which can help the city planners to transfer the strategic measures of the Master Plan into operative business.IntroductionThe topic of urbanization and therewith also urban energy systems shift continuously into society's focus because half of the world's population lives in cities today1. Three quarters of the world energy consumption takes place in cities, being the case for 80% of greenhouse g","PeriodicalId":240163,"journal":{"name":"Emergence: Complexity and Organization","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114980246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Agent-Based Model of Population Dynamics for the European Regions","authors":"Federico Pablo-Martí, J. Santos, J. Kaszowska","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2445958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2445958","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThe aims of this paper are to present and to discuss an agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions at NUTS 3 level. It includes individuals that perform several activities with bounded rationality. The paper briefly discusses the latest novelties on this topic and then describes the processes to prepare a data base with the necessary information to feed and calibrate the model. Then it is presented the initialization module. It generates individual heterogeneity according to average and marginal aggregate distributions of the included variables that characterize the agents. In order to simulate the mechanisms of migration our model creates an artificial labor demand at regional level using simple but effective rules based on mainstream economic theory. The rest of the model is also presented: education, pairing, aging and deceases. A set of scenarios is defined and the regional aggregates are computed. Hence, the results are prepared to be visualized with tables, graphics and maps.IntroductionIn the hereby presented article, an agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions at NUTS 3 level is discussed. Before proceeding to the presentation of the model details and description of the preparation of the data bases needed to feed and calibrate this model, let the latest advances on this topic be presented. Thus, we will introduce how agent-based models have been used to model the population dynamics, paying also attention to the importance of labour market.Nowadays, population dynamics is the field of study of the highest interest. It joins the results extracted from the economics, demography studies and sociology. All of them have their own methodologies of studies and all of them present new techniques of population dynamics and related phenomena modelling1-2.In \"Semi-Artificial Models of Populations: Connecting Demography with Agent-Based-Modelling\"3 the authors present a seminal paper of an agent-based model of the dynamics of mortality, fertility, and partnership formation. They \"propose that directly linking demographic methods with ABM frameworks will allow us to produce models which increase our understanding of population change, while simultaneously helping us to avoid the pitfalls of an over-dependence on empirical data. ABMs allow us to produce models which have a greater explanatory capacity, while the demographic components allow to use the inherent flexibility of the ABM approach to generate plausible scenarios within a given parameter space\". In this article they present an agent-based model that emphasize on the partner formation and they combine it with survivorship and birth rates empirical and projected.Our agent-based model, developed at the same time, follows the same path and develops an agentbased model with the same features as the cited one, but ours is focus on the importance of the labor market and migration patterns. These two relevant parts are not taken into account by","PeriodicalId":240163,"journal":{"name":"Emergence: Complexity and Organization","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128602659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reinventing the Sacred: A New View of Science, Reason, and Religion","authors":"J. Goldstein","doi":"10.5860/choice.46-0844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.46-0844","url":null,"abstract":"A Review of Reinventing the Sacred: A New View of Science, Reason, and Religion written by Stuart Kauffman reviewed by Jeffrey A. Goldstein published by Basic Books ISBN 9780465003006 (2008) [YHVH says to all of you]: 'Look, I am doing something new It is emerging right now, Can't y ou see it? I am creating a path in the wilderness, And rivers out of the desert ' Isaiah 43: 19: I quote from the book of Isaiah to open this review because I see it as a counterpoint to Kauffman's opening of his book with a poetic excerpt from the English metaphysical poet John Donne, a selection that strikes me as an exceedingly odd choice given that Donne's poem not only involved a Trinitarian conception of God (a view of the sacred that Kauffman himself later repudiates, as we'll see) but also an intense and paradoxical depiction of a clash between faith and reason. Yet, this latter theme just doesn't mesh with Kauffman's book since, rather than delving into any sort of spiritual crisis, it comes down squarely on the side of secular humanism with the little he actually does devote to faith and the sacred never rising above the banal, something that could certainly never be said of Donne's poetry. The above quote from Isaiah, in contrast, points to the possibility of there being a sacred source of emergent novelty, indeed this was the basis of an entire theological interpretation of emergence that was one of the most important trends in twentieth century theology, namely, the movement known as Process Theology based on the metaphysics of emergence expounded by the mathematician and philosopher Alfred North Whitehead in his magnum opus, Process and Reality (1979); a theology of emergence about which Kauffman has nary a word to say. Because of my own high regard for Kauffman's Origins of Order (1993), which had a deep influence on my own thinking about emergence and other complexity constructs, I wanted to give the current book an honest read, but that initial intention quickly devolved into a painful chore. Certainly, the sentiments seemed right and laudable: an ecologically-friendly \"Green\" Theology and one coming from complexity science and one of its gurus! This enticing prospect, though, quickly evaporated since what little this book actually has to say about the sacred/spirituality/morality turns out to be surprisingly sparse and mostly platitudinous. Instead, the greater part of the book is given over to musings on a variety of subjects, most of which will be easily recognizable as concerns Kauffman has dealt with in the past, but a few of which are new such as his theory of the quantum brain which I'll be getting into in some detail below. To be sure Chapters Six and Ten present familiar Kauffman-style anti-reductionism arguments which are well-written, interesting, with important things to say about what I think we could call a failure of the imagination on the part of many scientists. However, in general, it's hard to know what to make of this book for most","PeriodicalId":240163,"journal":{"name":"Emergence: Complexity and Organization","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134237673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emergent Strategy Development for Organizations","authors":"Alexis Downs, Rita A. Durant, A. Carr","doi":"10.1207/S15327000EM050204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327000EM050204","url":null,"abstract":"The professional field of strategic management distinguishes several different schools, among them the prescriptive and emergent approaches (Lynch, 2000). Although theorists distinguish different approaches (e.g., Idenburg, 1993; Mintzberg, 1987), in order to look more closely at emergence in strategic processes we highlight the distinctions between the rational planning and emergent schools, particularly in regard to issues of language and time.","PeriodicalId":240163,"journal":{"name":"Emergence: Complexity and Organization","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132331286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Variety, Constraint, And The Law Of Requisite Variety","authors":"W. R. Ashby, W. Weaver","doi":"10.4324/9781315130569-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315130569-19","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":240163,"journal":{"name":"Emergence: Complexity and Organization","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115954805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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