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Quarterly Economic Commentary最新文献

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Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios 爱尔兰和英国脱欧:达成协议和不达成协议情景的影响建模
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2019-03-26 DOI: 10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_BERGIN
A. Bergin
{"title":"Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios","authors":"A. Bergin","doi":"10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_BERGIN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_BERGIN","url":null,"abstract":"This Article attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the Irish economy. Given both the political and economic uncertainty, we consider a range of alternative scenarios. We focus on the most well understood channels through which Brexit will affect Ireland, namely though lower trade, incorporating the impact of tariff and non-tariff measures, and the potentially positive impact of FDI diversion to Ireland. Our approach, and the main contribution of this paper, is to build up estimates of each of these channels from a range of recent micro-economic studies, so our estimates are anchored in the empirical literature. We then use these micro-estimates to calibrate macro scenarios; specifically we generate alternative paths for the UK and international economy using the NiGEM global model and assess the impact on Ireland using the COSMO model. Overall, in each scenario, the level of Irish output is permanently below where it otherwise would have been were the UK to decide to remain in the EU.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126667083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Exploring the implications of monetary policy normalisation for Irish mortgage arrears 探讨货币政策正常化对爱尔兰抵押贷款拖欠的影响
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2019-03-12 DOI: 10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_FAHY
Michael Fahy, K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Rachel R. Slaymaker
{"title":"Exploring the implications of monetary policy normalisation for Irish mortgage arrears","authors":"Michael Fahy, K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole, Rachel R. Slaymaker","doi":"10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_FAHY","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2019SPR_SA_FAHY","url":null,"abstract":"The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131147241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Budget 2019: tax and welfare changes 2019年预算:税收和福利改革
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2018-12-11 DOI: 10.26504/qec2018win_sa_roantree
B. Roantree, Maxime Bercholz, Karina Doorley, C. Keane, M. Regan
{"title":"Budget 2019: tax and welfare changes","authors":"B. Roantree, Maxime Bercholz, Karina Doorley, C. Keane, M. Regan","doi":"10.26504/qec2018win_sa_roantree","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018win_sa_roantree","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116145025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Exploring SME investment patterns in Ireland: New survey evidence 探索爱尔兰中小企业投资模式:新的调查证据
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2018-09-26 DOI: 10.26504/QEC2018AUT_SA_OTOOLE
Eric Gargan, M. Lawless, M. Martinez-Cillero, C. O’Toole
{"title":"Exploring SME investment patterns in Ireland: New survey evidence","authors":"Eric Gargan, M. Lawless, M. Martinez-Cillero, C. O’Toole","doi":"10.26504/QEC2018AUT_SA_OTOOLE","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2018AUT_SA_OTOOLE","url":null,"abstract":"An empirical profile of SME investment in Ireland is critical to understanding the growth possibilities and productive capacity of Irish indigenous enterprises. However little is known about SME investment activity outside the more aggregate information. This paper uses new survey evidence compiled as part of the Department of Finance SME Credit Demand Survey to profile the types of assets SMEs are investing in, how firms are financing these investments and what barriers firms face to investment. We provide a detailed exploration of the trends across firms looking at different size classes, age groups, exporting status and sectors. A number of findings emerge. We find that two in every three SMEs invested in their staff; one-in-two invested in fixed assets; and less than one-inten invested in intangible assets in 2016. SMEs were in general satisfied with their investment levels or their current capacity with only one-in-five facing a capital gap. For those with perceived insufficient investment, a lack of internal funds, rather than access to external finance, was identified as the main reason. Finally, SMEs reported having significant liquidity levels in 2016. These findings suggest that any perceived sluggishness in borrowing or investment appetite could potentially be demand-side in orientation.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121993526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
National accounts for a global economy: the case of Ireland 全球经济的国民核算:以爱尔兰为例
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2018-06-14 DOI: 10.26504/QEC2018SUMSAFITZGERALD
J. Fitzgerald
{"title":"National accounts for a global economy: the case of Ireland","authors":"J. Fitzgerald","doi":"10.26504/QEC2018SUMSAFITZGERALD","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/QEC2018SUMSAFITZGERALD","url":null,"abstract":"Globalisation is affecting the way economic activity is reflected in the national accounts. Intellectual property, which is now part of the capital stock, interacts with the choice of global firms as to their legal structure, producing different national accounting outcomes for individual countries. This is but one manifestation of the challenges that a global economy presents for national accounting. Using the example of Ireland, consideration is given to the data needed to meet the needs of users of national accounts. In particular, more information is required to separately identify all the activity of multinational enterprises and domestically owned firms. This paper suggests a set of satellite accounts for Ireland that would show how changes in the economy affect the economic welfare of Irish residents.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116226347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
The tax treatment of pension contributions in Ireland 爱尔兰养老金缴款的税收待遇
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2018-05-24 DOI: 10.26504/qec2018sum_sa_doorley
Karina Doorley, T. Callan, M. Regan, J. Walsh
{"title":"The tax treatment of pension contributions in Ireland","authors":"Karina Doorley, T. Callan, M. Regan, J. Walsh","doi":"10.26504/qec2018sum_sa_doorley","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2018sum_sa_doorley","url":null,"abstract":"Tax treatments of pensions vary widely across countries. This paper examines the current tax treatment of pension contributions in Ireland and some widely discussed alternatives, including equalising the tax relief available to low and high earners. The analysis takes into account both explicit contributions in the private sector, and the implicit value of publicly funded pensions.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126202803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Distributional impact of tax and welfare policies: Budget 2023 税收和福利政策对分配的影响:2023年预算
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2017-12-08 DOI: 10.26504/qec2022win_sa_doolan
T. Callan, Maxime Bercholz, Karina Doorley, C. Keane, M. Regan, M. Savage, J. Walsh
{"title":"Distributional impact of tax and welfare policies: Budget 2023","authors":"T. Callan, Maxime Bercholz, Karina Doorley, C. Keane, M. Regan, M. Savage, J. Walsh","doi":"10.26504/qec2022win_sa_doolan","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26504/qec2022win_sa_doolan","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117120118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A restatement of the case for Scottish fiscal autonomy : or: the Barnett Formula - a formula for a Rake’s Progress 重申苏格兰财政自治的理由:或者:巴内特公式(Barnett Formula)——雷克进步(Rake’s Progress)的公式
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.4337/9781848449183.00011
P. Hallwood, R. MacDonald
{"title":"A restatement of the case for Scottish fiscal autonomy : or: the Barnett Formula - a formula for a Rake’s Progress","authors":"P. Hallwood, R. MacDonald","doi":"10.4337/9781848449183.00011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848449183.00011","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we rebut the case that Ashcroft, Christie and Swales [ACS] (2006) make in favour of the status quo fiscal settlement in Scotland that stems from the Scotland Act 1998. This Act in creating the Scottish Parliament and Executive effectively separated public spending by the Scottish government from the need to raise taxes to finance it; rather, financing comes from Westminster through the Barnett formula. We do not think that these arrangements provide a stable political solution in the UK, as is evidenced by the so-called West Lothian question - a matter that may be becoming of greater concern in England than hitherto. Scotland, therefore, should be forewarned that even if it does not move from the status quo, movement might anyway be forced on it.","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133668319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Wages and earnings 工资及收入
Quarterly Economic Commentary Pub Date : 1978-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/c2013-0-03155-6
D. Bell, S. Hart, F. Kirwan, J. McGilvray, A. Morton, D. Simpson, Alison A. Wingfield
{"title":"Wages and earnings","authors":"D. Bell, S. Hart, F. Kirwan, J. McGilvray, A. Morton, D. Simpson, Alison A. Wingfield","doi":"10.1016/c2013-0-03155-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/c2013-0-03155-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":239794,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Economic Commentary","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134055193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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