Exploring the implications of monetary policy normalisation for Irish mortgage arrears

Abstract

The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate.