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Firm Dynamics and SOE Transformation During China's Economic Reform 中国经济改革中的企业动力与国有企业转型
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3945914
Shijun Gu, Chengcheng Jia
{"title":"Firm Dynamics and SOE Transformation During China's Economic Reform","authors":"Shijun Gu, Chengcheng Jia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3945914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3945914","url":null,"abstract":"We study China’s state-owned enterprises (SOE) reform with a focus on the corporatization of SOEs. We first empirically document that small SOEs are more likely to exit or become privatized, whereas big SOEs are more likely to be corporatized while remaining under state ownership. We then build a heterogeneous-firm model featuring financial frictions, endogenous entry and exit, and optimal firm-type choices. Our calibrated model suggests that in the long run, the SOE reform increases the aggregate output by facilitating resource reallocation to the private sector. Along the transition, the corporatization option leads to higher aggregate output than the privatization-only policy by giving a higher financing capacity to more productive incumbent SOEs.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130492483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Macroeconomic Effects of Universal Basic Income Programs 全民基本收入计划的宏观经济效应
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3932568
André Victor Doherty Luduvice
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Universal Basic Income Programs","authors":"André Victor Doherty Luduvice","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3932568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3932568","url":null,"abstract":"What are the consequences of a nationwide reform of a transfer system based on means-testing toward one of unconditional transfers? I answer this question with a quantitative model to assess the general equilibrium, inequality, and welfare effects of substituting the current US income security system with a universal basic income (UBI) policy. To do so, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income risk that incorporates intensive and extensive margins of the labor supply, on-the-job learning, and child-bearing costs. The tax-transfer system closely mimics the US design. I calibrate the model to the US economy and conduct counterfactual analyses that implement reforms toward a UBI. I find that an expenditure-neutral reform has moderate impacts on agents’ labor supply response but induces aggregate capital and output to grow due to larger precautionary savings. A UBI of $1,000 monthly requires a substantial increase in the tax rate of consumption used to clear the government budget and leads to an overall decrease in the macroeconomic aggregates, stemming from a drop in the labor supply. In both cases, the economy has more equally distributed disposable income and consumption. The UBI economy constitutes a welfare loss at the transition if it is expenditure-neutral and results in a gain in the second scenario.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115768952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity 平均通胀目标制:时间不一致性和故意模糊性
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202119
Chengcheng Jia, Jing Cynthia Wu
{"title":"Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity","authors":"Chengcheng Jia, Jing Cynthia Wu","doi":"10.26509/frbc-wp-202119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202119","url":null,"abstract":"We study the implications of the Fed's new policy framework of average inflation targeting (AIT) and its ambiguous communication. We show that AIT improves the trade-off between inflation and real activity by tilting the Phillips curve in a favorable way. To fully utilize this feature and maximize social welfare, the central bank has the incentive to deviate from AIT and implement inflation targeting ex post. Next, we rationalize the central bank's ambiguous communication about the horizon over which it averages inflation. Ambiguous communication, together with uncertainty about economic fundamentals, helps the central bank to gain credibility and improve welfare in the long run, in spite of the time-inconsistent nature of AIT.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134402449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
IT and Urban Polarization 信息技术与城市极化
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202118
J. Eeckhout, C. Hedtrich, Roberto B. Pinheiro
{"title":"IT and Urban Polarization","authors":"J. Eeckhout, C. Hedtrich, Roberto B. Pinheiro","doi":"10.26509/frbc-wp-202118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202118","url":null,"abstract":"We show that differential IT investment across cities has been a key driver of job and wage polarization since the 1980s. Using a novel data set, we establish two stylized facts: IT investment is highest in firms in large and expensive cities, and the decline in routine cognitive occupations is most prevalent in large and expensive cities. To explain these facts, we propose a model mechanism where the substitution of routine workers by IT leads to higher IT adoption in large cities due to a higher cost of living and higher wages. We estimate the spatial equilibrium model to trace out the effects of IT on the labor market between 1990 and 2015. We find that the fall in IT prices explains 50 percent of the rising wage gap between routine and non-routine cognitive jobs. The decline in IT prices also accounts for 28 percent of the shift in employment away from routine cognitive towards non-routine cognitive jobs. Moreover, our estimates show that the impact of IT is uneven across space. Expensive locations have seen a stronger displacement of routine cognitive jobs and a larger widening of the wage gap between routine and non-routine cognitive jobs.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132430470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation 审查密度预测:生产和评估
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3854952
James Mitchell, M. Weale
{"title":"Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation","authors":"James Mitchell, M. Weale","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3854952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854952","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops methods for the production and evaluation of censored density forecasts. Censored density forecasts quantify forecast risks in a middle region of the density covering a specified probability, and ignore the magnitude but not the frequency of outlying observations. We propose a new estimator that fits a potentially skewed and fat-tailed density to the inner observations, acknowledging that the outlying observations may be drawn from a different but unknown distribution. We also introduce a new test for calibration of censored density forecasts. An application using historical forecast errors from the Federal Reserve Board and the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England illustrates the utility of censored density forecasts when quantifying forecast risks after shocks such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128295720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era 出口导向的衰退:金本位时代的贸易渠道
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3854039
Bernardo Candia, Mathieu O. Pedemonte
{"title":"Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era","authors":"Bernardo Candia, Mathieu O. Pedemonte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3854039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854039","url":null,"abstract":"Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using prices at the goods level, we estimate exchange rate pass-through and find gains in competitiveness after a depreciation. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, combined with employment composition and sectoral export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. They were negatively impacted when the UK abandoned the gold standard in 1931 and benefited when the US left the gold standard in April 1933. We show that the gold standard deepened the Great Depression, and abandoning it was a key driver of the economic recovery.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116285384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods 区位、区位、结构类型:街区内租金差异
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-02-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3782829
Brian E. Adams, Randal J. Verbrugge
{"title":"Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods","authors":"Brian E. Adams, Randal J. Verbrugge","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3782829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3782829","url":null,"abstract":"Housing rents are a large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Rent inflation rates for different types of housing units sometimes diverge, even in the same neighborhoods. We estimate during 2013 to 2016 apartment rents outpaced rents for detached housing in the United States by 0.76 percentage points annually after controlling for location effects. These rent dynamics imply a segmented housing market. They also suggest rent indexes need to be based on data structurally representative of their measurement objective. In particular, indexes based on professionally managed apartment complexes mismeasure the rents for housing generally. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the Consumer Price Index’s Owners’ Equivalent Rent component, may be biased by using an unrepresentative mix of apartments and houses.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132379182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators 用多种指标预测经济活动的临近尾部风险
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-05-11 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202013
Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino
{"title":"Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators","authors":"Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino","doi":"10.26509/frbc-wp-202013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202013","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on tail risk nowcasts of economic activity, measured by GDP growth, with a potentially wide array of monthly and weekly information. We consider different models (Bayesian mixed frequency regressions with stochastic volatility, classical and Bayesian quantile regressions, quantile MIDAS regressions) and also different methods for data reduction (either the combination of forecasts from smaller models or forecasts from models that incorporate data reduction). The results show that classical and MIDAS quantile regressions perform very well in-sample but not out-of-sample, where the Bayesian mixed frequency and quantile regressions are generally clearly superior. Such a ranking of methods appears to be driven by substantial variability over time in the recursively estimated parameters in classical quantile regressions, while the use of priors in the Bayesian approaches reduces sampling variability and its effects on forecast accuracy. From an economic point of view, we find that the weekly information flow is quite useful in improving tail nowcasts of economic activity, with initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, a term spread, a credit spread, and the Chicago Fed’s index of financial conditions emerging as particularly relevant indicators. Additional weekly indicators of economic activity do not improve historical forecast accuracy but do not harm it much, either.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130806270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
Advance Layoff Notices and Labor Market Forecasting 提前裁员通知和劳动力市场预测
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3531229
Pawel M. Krolikowski, Kurt G. Lunsford
{"title":"Advance Layoff Notices and Labor Market Forecasting","authors":"Pawel M. Krolikowski, Kurt G. Lunsford","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3531229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3531229","url":null,"abstract":"We collect rich establishment-level data about advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act since January 1990. We present in-sample evidence that the number of workers affected by WARN notices leads state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The effects are strongest at the one and two-month horizons. After aggregating state-level information to a national-level “WARN factor” using a dynamic factor model, we find that the factor substantially improves out-of-sample forecasts of changes of manufacturing employment in real time.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129928246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions 用贝叶斯向量自回归捕捉宏观经济尾部风险
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3520777
Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino
{"title":"Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions","authors":"Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520777","url":null,"abstract":"A rapidly growing body of research has examined tail risks in macroeconomic outcomes. Most of this work has focused on the risks of significant declines in GDP, and has relied on quantile regression methods to estimate tail risks. In this paper we examine the ability of Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to capture tail risks in macroeconomic forecast distributions and outcomes. We consider both a conventional stochastic volatility specification and a specification featuring a common volatility factor that is a function of past financial conditions. Even though the conditional predictive distributions from the VAR models are symmetric, our estimated models featuring time-varying volatility yield more time variation in downside risk as compared to upside risk—a feature highlighted in other work that has advocated for quantile regression methods or focused on asymmetric conditional distributions. Overall, the BVAR models perform comparably to quantile regression for estimating tail risks, with, in addition, some gains in standard point and density forecasts.","PeriodicalId":233460,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129312215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 37
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