Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)最新文献

Impact of Export Activities on Firm Performance: The Case of Indonesian SMEs 出口活动对企业绩效的影响:以印尼中小企业为例

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.48

M. D. Revindo, Devianto

引用次数: 0

Price Transmission in International Crude Palm Oil Markets: The Effects of Export Tax of Indonesia 国际棕榈油市场价格传导:印尼出口税的影响

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.15

Immanuel Manurung, B. Bruemmer, T. Kopp

{"title":"Price Transmission in International Crude Palm Oil Markets: The Effects of Export Tax of Indonesia","authors":"Immanuel Manurung, B. Bruemmer, T. Kopp","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.15","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decade, there have been fluctuations in the global price of CPO. These variations in global CPO price are likely to affect the local CPO price as well. To overcome this, the Indonesian government has implemented an export tax on CPO in order to maintain stability in the business of the CPO producers. The aims of this research are to assess the market integration and the price transmission between the international CPO market and the domestic CPO market of Indonesia as well as the effects of the Indonesian export tax on the domestic and on the international prices. The analysis uses 592 weekly prices from January 2005 to May 2017 and estimation of Error Correction Model as an analysis method. The results of analysis show that the domestic CPO market of Indonesia is integrated with the international market. The domestic CPO market in Indonesia responds to price fluctuations in international market. In addition, although the imposition of the export tax of CPO in Indonesia slightly reduces instability of the domestic CPO price, the overall influence is still small. It can be inferred that the policy is effective to increase government revenue as a fiscal instrument at the expanse of oil palm farmers and producers of CPO. In practice, even though the policy maker has attempted to reduce the dependency of the Indonesian CPO producers on the world market by creating a demand market, but the Indonesian government still need to optimize the policy under the new format of the export tax of CPO. Keywords— CPO, ECM, Export Tax, Market Integration, Price Transmission","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115099214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

The Economic Consequences and Strategies of the US-China Trade War on Indonesia: A GTAP Simulation Analysis 中美贸易战对印尼的经济后果及对策——基于GTAP的模拟分析

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.22

Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, A. Firdaus

{"title":"The Economic Consequences and Strategies of the US-China Trade War on Indonesia: A GTAP Simulation Analysis","authors":"Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, A. Firdaus","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.22","url":null,"abstract":"At present, the world economy is in uncertainty. One reason is that two economically large countries, the United States (US) and China are in conflict and beat the drums of trade war. This is indicated by the policy of US applying tariffs on a number of Chinese products, and then responded very quickly by China by implementing a reply tariff. The aim of this study is to analyze the economic consequences of the USChina trade war for Indonesia and Indonesia's strategies to respond to the trade war. The analytical method used is the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results of the analysis show that the consequences of the US-China trade war on the found that trade wars between the US and China had an impact on the decline in the total output of goods produced by the US and China by 3.91% and 2.67% respectively. But the economic growth (PDB) of the US and China will be corrected by 0.08% and 0.66% respectively. Exports are still affected by -0.24% with greater implications. It means Indonesia has not been able to take advantage of the situation as a source of economic growth (GDP) projected to only increase by 0.01%. This means that Indonesia also needs to improve, so that investment in the real sector continues to flow profusely even though the China-US trade war has not been completed. The recommendation suggested that in the short-term strategies that need to be done are increasing export competitiveness, encouraging export-oriented industrial productivity, expanding and strengthening domestic and world markets, and controlling the amount of imports. In the longterm strategies include the need to improve the quality of human resources in the trade and industry sectors, utilization of the results of research and development, and infrastructure development is right on target for increased productivity. Keywords—economic impacts, strategies, US-China trade war, GTAP analysis","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124568136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Changing Global Trade Landscape: Developing Country Perspective 变化中的全球贸易格局:发展中国家视角

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.45

M. Pangestu

引用次数: 1

Effective Business Strategy: Key to Winning Business Competition in Industrial Estate 有效的商业战略:工业园区商业竞争的关键

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.12

Sri Sarjana, N. Khayati

{"title":"Effective Business Strategy: Key to Winning Business Competition in Industrial Estate","authors":"Sri Sarjana, N. Khayati","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.12","url":null,"abstract":"Global competition requires high speed, accuracy, creativity and consistency to win business through strengthening optimal competitiveness. Choosing the right business strategy create effective business achievements to be able to compete in the face of uncertain and turbulence economic conditions. This study empirically investigates important role of human capital, infrastructure, supply chain, and technology on company's business strategy in industrial estate and its impact on strengthening competitiveness of manufacturing industry. Authors conducted survey of companies in industrial estate to test hypotheses and apply survey analysis techniques using structural equation modeling. Results of this study concluded that human capital, infrastructure, supply chain, and technology have positive influence on business strategies and have positive impact on competitiveness of manufacturing industries, especially those located in industrial estates. In addition, importance of choosing right business strategy greatly determines how much this business has superior competitiveness compared to its business competitors. This research is expected to be used as suggestion and reference for business units and manufacturing industries to be used as one of considerations in the development of companies in industrial estates that are being developed widely, especially outside Java by government to get best competitiveness. Keywords—business strategy, competitiveness, supply chain, human capital, industrial estate","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"4 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114022154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Trade Policy Evaluation on Rubber and Palm Oil 橡胶和棕榈油贸易政策评价

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.39

K. Jati, Wibowo Kurniawan, A. Mardiansyah, M. Fawaiq, R. A. Nugroho, Deky Paryadi

{"title":"Trade Policy Evaluation on Rubber and Palm Oil","authors":"K. Jati, Wibowo Kurniawan, A. Mardiansyah, M. Fawaiq, R. A. Nugroho, Deky Paryadi","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.39","url":null,"abstract":"—Rubber and palm oil are the two main export commodities that contribute to economic development in Indonesia. Specific trade policy has to be implemented when export commodity prices fluctuating or increasing or decreasing rapidly in the short period of time. The research purpose is to write a trade policy evaluation on rubber and palm oil using ARMA-ARCH/GARCH and structural time-series model. This study shows that price movement aspect is very important to evaluate the trade policy. The results of the analysis using Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) indicate that past price factors can be used to predict future prices. The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the price of rubber and palm oil in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be relatively stable. The relevant trade authorities need to maximize the public services related to the price predictions and upcoming policy in order to maintain export stability in the short and long terms so that it can be utilized to the greatest extent possible for development of Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115923882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Analysis of Inter-Island Trade Data Collection 岛屿间贸易数据收集分析

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.32

D. Prabowo, Aditya Priantomo

{"title":"The Analysis of Inter-Island Trade Data Collection","authors":"D. Prabowo, Aditya Priantomo","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.32","url":null,"abstract":"Inter-island trade data becomes one of the bases to formulate policy recommendations to maintain price stability and reduce price disparity across regions in Indonesia. However, inter-island trade data still not well recorded and managed. The purpose of this study is to measure the performance of the inter-island trade data collection process by Ministry of Trade and to identify problems of data collection. Important Performance Analysis (IPA) is utilized to measure the performance of inter-island trade data collection and Likert Scale is used for problems identification. The study found that in inter-island trade data collection terms of importance is at the level of 3,25. While in terms of performance is at the level of 4,35. It can be interpreted that the level of performance is better than the level of importance, so in other words the process of inter-islands data collection is relatively effective. Meanwhile, the main problem in interisland trade data collection are the lack of coordination between Ministries/Agencies, the policy that has not been well socialized, and there is no comprehensive method of interisland trade data collection. For this reason, coordination and synchronization and further agreement is needed to develop a comprehensive inter-island trade database, and creating method of data collection. Keywords—Inter-island Trade, Database, Trade","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130734986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Possibility of Indonesia and United Kingdom to Form Free Trade Agreement After Brexit 英国脱欧后印尼与英国达成自由贸易协定的可能性

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.3

Endah Ayu Ningsih, F. Hastiadi, Risna Triandhari, L. M. Christoffel, F. Budiarti

引用次数: 0

Accounting for Regulatory Distance and Looking for the Most Potential Indonesia's FTA/CEPA Partners 考虑监管距离，寻找最有潜力的印尼自由贸易协定/CEPA合作伙伴

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.18

Ernawati Munadi, A. Saputri

{"title":"Accounting for Regulatory Distance and Looking for the Most Potential Indonesia's FTA/CEPA Partners","authors":"Ernawati Munadi, A. Saputri","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.18","url":null,"abstract":"As tariff is declining, Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) become significantly important to supercede tariff role in protecting domestic industry. To overcome the negative impact of NTMs, some countries, including Indonesia, have been actively developing economic cooperations, so does . This study seeks to identify the most potential FTA/CEPA partners for Indonesia, from regulatory distance (RD) perspective. The study utilizes regulatory distance analysis on 11 Indonesian CEPA/FTA partners which are selected from certain criteria. Analysis shows that the regulatory distance between Indonesia and its main FTA/CEPA partners is small, it is between 0.003 – 0.132. The most potential Indonesia’s FTA/CEPA partners are from ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. While the most potential partners from outside ASEAN countries are Pakistan and the USA. This is indicated by the similarity of NTM patterns at the product level as resulted from the regulatory distance analysis. It reveals a sort of common pattern of NTM regimes. Moreover, the results reveal that Indonesian regulatory structure is relatively different from the Philippines and Australia and these countries tend to be outlier. The regulatory structure of Japan, EU and Korea is relatively closer to Indonesia. Therefore, it is important for Indonesia to address NTMs issues when negoatiating its economic cooperation, in particular with Australia and the Philippines, through Mutual Recognition Agreement and Harmonisation of Standard. Keywords— Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs); Regulatory Distance Analysis; Free Trade Agreement","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124710825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on ASEAN Trade Flow 信息通信技术(ICT)对东盟贸易流动的影响

Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019) Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.2991/icot-19.2019.38

Iwan Hermawan, Eka Budiyanti, Edmira Rivani

{"title":"The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on ASEAN Trade Flow","authors":"Iwan Hermawan, Eka Budiyanti, Edmira Rivani","doi":"10.2991/icot-19.2019.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.38","url":null,"abstract":"Information and communications technology (ICT) would drive the acceleration of digitalization era, including dynamics of trade flow among ASEAN countries, both in low or high-tech also. Basically each country has different resources, and so why many factors must be known to be a winner. This aim of study was to analyze the impact of ICT existence on ASEAN trade flows. Panel data for 10 ASEAN countries for a period from 2012 to 2016 was employed to construct Gravity Model. To estimate that model, we applied Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). All data came from World Bank, WITS, CEPII, IMF, and ITU. The result showed that ICT has significantly positive impacts on both trade flow ASEAN market. If we elaborated in detail, according to (a) the sector, ICT in trade of hi-tech commodities was more attractive effort than low-tech commodities and (b) the existence, the adult literacy rate as ICT skills was more dominant factor influenced in trade flow among ASEAN countries compare ICT access and usage. Some policy recommendations were how to develop workers' skills, mitigation issue on digital economy, and develop domestic ICT industry. Keywords— ICT, ASEAN, trade, gravity model","PeriodicalId":229902,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128597470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1