Theoretical and Applied Climatology最新文献

{"title":"A hybrid prediction framework combining deep neural network and modified optimization algorithm for water vapor prediction","authors":"Wenyu Zhang, Bingyan Li, Xinyu Zhang, Menggang Kou, Linyue Zhang, Shuai Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05060-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05060-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As a global issue, water shortage has attracted much attention from the society. Artificial rain enhancement (ARE) is an effective way to exploit cloud water resources and solve water shortage, but the timing of operation is always a key problem that ARE is facing. The fluctuating properties of water vapor content (WVC) are intricately tied to the choice of operational timing, so accurately predicting the evolution of WVC holds paramount importance when determining the optimal operational timing. However, most of the proposed forecasting methods are limited to simple time series forecasting, and do not pay attention to the complex characteristics of the original data and the shortcomings of a single model prediction. Therefore, the prediction accuracy is difficult to meet the requirements of increasingly refined meteorological services. To tackle this challenge, a new hybrid prediction model, including data reconstruction strategy, benchmark model and improved multi-objective optimization algorithm, is proposed in our research by combining advanced theoretical research of artificial intelligence and data preprocessing ideas. The microwave radiometer WVC observation data at high altitude of Qilian Mountains in China is taken as a case study. By comparing 12 mainstream models, it can be concluded that: The model developed in this study achieves the highest prediction accuracy, and the mean MAPE of the three data sets at 2, 4, 6 and 8 prediction steps is 1.23%, 1.33%, 1.37% and 1.52%, respectively. This result verifies the superiority and practical value of the proposed model in predicting WVC under complex terrain conditions, and provides an excellent solution for accurate prediction of WVC.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141570336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology and trends of atmospheric water vapour transport in New Zealand","authors":"Nithin Krishna, Daniel G. Kingston, Sarah M. Mager","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05072-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05072-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric moisture transport is crucial for understanding New Zealand’s climate dynamics, particularly with respect to extreme precipitation events. While the majority of previous studies have focussed on Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), this study examines the entire spectrum of water vapour transport and its link to extreme precipitation using 40 years (1981–2020) of Integrated Water Vapour Transport (IVT) data over the region. Although ARs are important drivers of extreme precipitation, they are infrequent as they account for less than 10% of total moisture transport at most coastal locations. Extreme water vapour transport (defined by the 90th percentile IVT threshold) corresponds more closely with precipitation extremes than ARs alone, even using an expanded AR detection range. Here, IVT is classified into strength categories from weak to strong. Over the study period, all but the weakest category of IVT has increased in frequency of occurrence over most of the South Island, while decreasing in northern North Island. Similarly, monthly IVT anomaly trends show a positive trend in the South Island and negative trend in the northern North Island during warmer months. Separate analysis of moisture weighted wind speeds (UV) and total column water vapour (TCWV) revealed that even though the dynamic component of IVT has decreased in many locations, the increase in TCWV across New Zealand is the driving factor underpinning the IVT trends. Correspondingly, these findings indicate the importance of analysis both dynamic and thermodynamic factors in seeking to understand hydrometeorological variation and when investigating the responses to climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141570340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment and prediction of land surface temperature effects on human thermal comfort in the city of Oran, Algeria","authors":"Abdelhalim Bendib, Mohamed Lamine Boutrid","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05097-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05097-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban expansion has made thermal conditions a significant concern in the city of Oran. The daily dynamics of transportation and industrial activities can result in high temperatures, which can cause stress for residents, particularly during the summer. In this study, Landsat 8 data were used to extract Land Surface Temperature (LST) for July 18, 2015, and July 15, 2020. Anthropogenic, microclimatic, and atmospheric pollutant variables and a Random Forest (RF) model were employed to predict temperatures for 2025. The results revealed that 26% of the study area is characterized by low temperatures that do not exceed 33 °C; this area consists mainly of forests and water surfaces. 25% exhibit extreme temperatures exceeding 42 °C, with the industrial zone and port of Oran being the main heat sources. Additionally, with 48% of the study area, built-up areas and bare land are characterized by mean temperatures ranging between 33.87 °C and 42.28 °C. With a mean temperature of 37.27 °C, the simulation for 2025 shows that temperatures are expected to decrease by 0.53 °C, with forests and water surfaces being the main classes. Our findings provide valuable information on the future thermal balance of cities and can assist planners in designing more effective medium and long-term policies from both environmental and tourism perspectives.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141570339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of evaporation methods for modelling rainfall interception in a dry tropical forest","authors":"Antonio José Steidle Neto, Daniela C. Lopes, Thieres G. F. Silva, Luciana S. B. Souza","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05096-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05096-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The simulation of rainfall interception by vegetation is essential to water resource management, considering both changing land use and climate change effects. In the rainfall interception models, the evaporation rate is frequently estimated by means of the Penman-Monteith method, but the Priestley-Taylor equation appears as a promising approach with fewer input requirements. In this study these both formulations were evaluated with the sparse Gash model with variable parametrization for estimating rainfall interception by four tree species in a Brazilian dry tropical forest. The Penman-Monteith equation was used with the canopy resistance set to zero, and the momentum method was applied for estimating the aerodynamic resistance. The Priestley-Taylor formulation was tested with the proportional coefficients (α) of 1.26 and 1.34. The results of rainfall predictions were compared with the measurements by statistical indicators, which pointed slightly favorable to Penman-Monteith method. The Priestley-Taylor with α = 1.26 resulted in predictions better than with α = 1.34. Most of the simulations were classified as good (CMRE varying from 5.5 − 9.3%). The Priestley-Taylor method can be used for estimating the evaporation rate in simulations based on the sparse Gash model with variable parametrization in the studied dry tropical forest, under situations with restrictions of micrometeorological measurements or minimal processing time requirement.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141570342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan","authors":"Suheir Alsalal, Mou Leong Tan, Narimah Samat, Jawad T. Al-Bakri, Fei Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05087-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05087-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A comprehensive analysis of regional climate changes is essential in arid and semi-arid regions to optimize water resources management. This research aims to evaluate the changes in temperature and precipitation across the Mujib Basin in Jordan, using the most recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. Firstly, the performance of six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation from 1985 to 2014 was evaluated using observed climate data. The most suitable GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling approach. The findings demonstrate that the EC-Earth3–Veg model could reasonably simulate the historical climate pattern of the Mujib Basin, with coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.90, 0.83, and 0.65 for monthly Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation, respectively. Under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, Tmax is projected to increase by 1.4 to 3.9 °C and 1.6 to 6.8 °C, respectively, whereas Tmin increases from 1.4 to 3.4 °C and 1.6 to 6.4 °C. Furthermore, precipitation is projected to decrease by 4.61–23.2% at the end of the 21st century. These findings could help policymakers in formulating better adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change in Jordan This is a crucial step toward becoming a climate-resilient nation.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A snowfall climatology of the Ohio River Valley, USA","authors":"Zachary J. Suriano, Harmony L. Guercio","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05092-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05092-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Snowfall in the Ohio River Valley, USA, presents a relatively unique challenge due to the large gradient of event frequency and magnitude, and subsequent levels of preparation within local communities. Even relatively small magnitude events can cause widespread impacts due to available infrastructure. Here we present a climatology of snowfall conditions and events over a 74-year period using a network of daily observational stations across the region. Snowfall totals and event frequencies both exhibit a southwest to northeast gradient of increasing snowfall, where the majority of snowfall (&gt; 80%) occurs during the core winter months of December through February. There is a clear influence of Lake Erie on snowfall conditions in the northeast corner of the domain, where snowfall frequency, totals, and trends are substantially higher within the lake belt relative to areas further inland. Over time, snowfall significantly increased downwind of Lake Erie by as much as 42%, while significant decreases of over 55% occurred in central Tennessee and eastern Ohio. Intra-seasonally, snowfall totals trended significantly less during November and March for much of the domain, suggesting a compression of the snowfall season to more core winter months. Trends in snowfall frequency were apparent for many sub-regions, however evidence here suggests the trends in snowfall totals were primarily driven by trends in snowfall magnitude per event.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations of summer precipitation in Tarim Basin and their linkages with the westerly, Asian monsoons and extratropical circulation","authors":"Libin Yan, Qingtao Meng, Yan Zhou, Xiaoning Xie, Xinzhou Li, Zhengguo Shi, Xiaodong Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05098-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05098-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Precipitation plays an important role in the water resources system in Tarim Basin (TB), the most arid region in China. However, the source of water vapor for precipitation and its linkages with climate circulations still keep mysterious. Based on the observed precipitation of 21 stations from 1961 to 2020 in TB and the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the temporal and spatial variations of summer precipitation in TB and their linkages with the westerly, Asian summer monsoons and extratropical circulation are investigated. The results show that: (a) the summer precipitation in TB changes consistently at all 21 stations, and exhibits an increasing trend (4.1 mm/decade) from 1961 to 2020 with large interannual fluctuations; (b) although the water vapor in TB mainly comes from the westerly circulation, the water vapor from the edges of Asians summer monsoons also plays an important role. It is unexpectedly found that the summer precipitation in TB is negatively correlated with the Westerly Index (WI). When the upstream westerly wind weakens, the northeast wind from the eastern boundary and the southwest wind from the southern boundary strengthen, which bring more water vapor from the edges of East Asian and South Asian summer monsoons respectively, leading to abundant precipitation in TB; (c) when the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russian pattern (EA/WR) is in extreme negative phase, there is an anticyclone anomaly near 55°N, 55°E, which weakens the upstream westerly wind and reduces the water vapor input of western boundary into TB. However, the water vapor input from the edges of the Eastern and Southern Asian summer monsoon strengthens, facilitating abundant precipitation in TB. This study provides a new insight into the joint influence of westerly, monsoons and extratropical circulation on summer precipitation in TB, which is meaningful for understanding the mechanism of change in summer precipitation and the trend projection of future water resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected wind and waves around the Cuban archipelago using a multimodel ensemble","authors":"Axel Hidalgo-Mayo, Ida Mitrani-Arenal, Alejandro Vichot-Llano","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05093-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05093-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A statistical downscaling of wind and wave regimes is presented. The study is around the Cuban archipelago for the mid-term (2031–2060) and the long-term (2061–2090) with respect to the historical period 1976–2005. A multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios is used. Projections of the wind and wave regimes are projected through the BIAS correction (delta and empirical quantile mapping), and multiple regression with a determination coefficient of 88.3%, a residual standard deviation of 0.11, and a square mean error of 0.29. According to the statistical downscaling, the mean annual wind speed and the wave height showed significant changes in the western part of the Cuban archipelago. The extreme indicators of climate change referred to significant wave height show similarity in the representation of the future Cuban marine climate, which would have the most accentuated changes on the north coast of the central and eastern regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of submesoscale motions on similarity relationships based on nocturnal observations in the Taklimakan Desert","authors":"Hailiang Zhang, Minzhong Wang, Qing He, Ali Mamtimin, Junjian Liu, Huoqing Li","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05070-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05070-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Submesoscale motions may substantially influence similarity relationships within the Stable Boundary Layer (SBL), leading to considerable uncertainty in these relationships. Therefore, we conducted a comparison of similarity relationships within the SBL in the Taklimakan Desert before and after the removal of submesoscale motions, aiming to gain deeper insights into the impacts of submesoscale motions on the similarity relationships. We introduced a method utilizing Discrete Wavelet Transform with orthogonal wavelets to identify and filter out submesoscale motions. By investigating nocturnal observations from June 29 to July 31, 2021, daily from 22:00 to 07:00 local time, we tested and confirmed that submesoscale motions indeed exert a substantial influence on similarity relationships in different ways. After removing submesoscale motions, dimensionless wind velocity standard deviations become more consistent across different averaging periods, with notably higher Correlation Coefficients and lower Root Mean Square Errors. This highlights the effectiveness of the method in eliminating submesoscale motions. Submesoscale motions themselves do not exert a direct and significant influence on the flux–profile relationship for wind speed. It seems the enhanced turbulence intermittency induced by episodic submesoscale motions results in notable deviations from the Businger-Dyer relationship within the strong stable regime. The influence of submesoscale motions on intermittency appears more pronounced as stability increases. Submesoscale motions significantly influence the relationship between turbulence intensity and wind speed. The episodic submesoscale motions appear to be the direct cause for the presence of moderate turbulence intensity at low wind speeds. Horizontal wind velocity variances are mainly influenced by submesoscale motions, while vertical wind variance is predominantly associated with small-scale turbulence. These findings may contribute to a more accurate understanding of the impacts of submesoscale motions on similarity relationships in the SBL and provide genuine and stable similarity relationships of small-scale turbulence for SBL modeling.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon and water vapor exchanges coupling for different irrigated and rainfed conditions on Andean potato agroecosystems","authors":"Fabio Ernesto Martínez-Maldonado, Angela María Castaño-Marín, Gerardo Antonio Góez-Vinasco, Fabio Ricardo Marin","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05034-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05034-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The fundamental exchange of water for carbon lays the groundwork for understanding the interplay between carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, providing valuable insights into global water and carbon balances and vegetation growth. Inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) was used as a study framework of the diurnal patterns and degree of coupling of carbon and water exchange to investigate the net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) responses of three water regime potato cropping systems [full-irrigation (FI), deficit-irrigation (DI), and rainfed (RF)] in Cundinamarca, Colombia. The eddy covariance method was used to determine CO₂ and water fluxes, surface resistances, and the omega decoupling factor (Ω). Additionally, leaf area index (LAI), and specific leaf area (SLA) were assessed to determine the canopy influence on carbon and water exchange. The highest carbon sink activity (NEE = -311.96 ± 12.82 g C m⁻²) at FI, is primarily attributed to a larger canopy with high autotrophic activity and low internal resistance. This supported a highly coupled and synchronized exchange between evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP), as reflected in the highest IWUE (4.7 mg C kPa s⁻¹ kg⁻¹ H₂O). In contrast, the lower sink capacity at DI (NEE = − 17.3 ± 4.6 g C m⁻²) and the net carbon source activity from RF (NEE = 187.21 ± 3.84 g C m⁻²) were related to a smaller leaf area available for water and carbon exchange, resulting in lower IWUE (2.3 and 1.01 mg C kPa s⁻¹ kg⁻¹ H₂O, respectively) and a decoupled and desynchronized gas exchange caused by unbalanced restrictions on ET and GPP fluxes. These results provide new information on carbon–water interactions in potatoes and improve the understanding of carbon sequestration and drought effects on potato sink activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}