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A perceptible stacking ensemble model for air temperature prediction in a tropical climate zone 用于热带气候带气温预报的可感知叠加系综模式

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00014-0

Tajrian Mollick, Galib Hashmi, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

{"title":"A perceptible stacking ensemble model for air temperature prediction in a tropical climate zone","authors":"Tajrian Mollick, Galib Hashmi, Saifur Rahman Sabuj","doi":"10.1007/s44274-023-00014-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-023-00014-0","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Bangladesh is one of the world’s most susceptible countries to climate change. Global warming has significantly increased surface temperatures worldwide, including in Bangladesh. According to meteorological observations, the average temperature of the world has risen approximately 1.2 °C to 1.3 °C over the last century. Researchers and decision-makers have recently paid attention into the climate change studies. Climate models are used extensively throughout the nation in studies on global climate change to determine future estimates and uncertainties. This paper outlines a perceptible stacking ensemble learning model to estimate the temperature of a tropical region—Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. The next day’s temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature are estimated based on the daily weather database collected from the weather station of Cox’s Bazar for a period of 20 years between 2001 and 2021. Five machine learning (ML) models, namely linear regression (LR), ridge, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) are selected out of twelve ML models and combined to integrate the outputs of each model to attain the desired predictive performance. Different statistical schemes based on time-lag values play a significant role in the feature engineering stage. Evaluation metrics like mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) are determined to compare the predictive performance of the models. The findings imply that the stacking approach presented in this paper prevails over the standalone models. Specifically, the study reached the highest attainable R 2 values (0.925, 0.736, and 0.965) for forecasting temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature. The statistical test and trend analysis provide additional evidence of the excellent performance of the suggested model.","PeriodicalId":228529,"journal":{"name":"Discover Environment","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135386690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comprehensive review of the human body burden of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and associated health effects in an e-waste recycling area in China 中国电子垃圾回收区持久性有机污染物(POPs)的人体负担及其相关健康影响的综合审查

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00015-z

Wenlong Huang, Yanhong Huang, Yuequn Chen, Wei Tan, Kusheng Wu

引用次数: 0

Prediction of uniaxial compressive strength of the Kızılkaya ignimbrite with variable properties using MRA and ANN, Cappadocia (Turkey) 基于MRA和ANN的变性质Kızılkaya褐煤单轴抗压强度预测，卡帕多西亚(土耳其)

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00013-1

Burcu Ertas Deniz, Tamer Topal

{"title":"Prediction of uniaxial compressive strength of the Kızılkaya ignimbrite with variable properties using MRA and ANN, Cappadocia (Turkey)","authors":"Burcu Ertas Deniz, Tamer Topal","doi":"10.1007/s44274-023-00013-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-023-00013-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Cappadocia in Turkey is an important region with emphasis on ethnic and historic structures and geological features. Because of volcanic eruptions, ash flow materials deposited at different levels. These different colored ignimbrite levels have a wide range of geomechanical properties. In the region, the Kızılkaya ignimbrite covers a very large area and is frequently used as building dimension stone in for the restoration of old historical buildings such as churches, caravansaries and mosques as well as new buildings. It contains tuffaceous matrix with some minerals and rock fragments. The rock has variable character. In this study, the relationship between petrographic and physico-mechanical properties of the Kızılkaya ignimbrite was investigated. Rate of change between uniaxial compressive strength and the other index properties of the rock was statistically examined utilizing multiple regression analysis (MRA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The study has shown that uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of the ignimbrite can be successfully estimated by the use of dry unit weight, effective porosity, sonic velocity, and grain matrix ratio (GMR) parameters. A new UCS prediction equation is proposed in this paper for the ignimbrite with variable character. Since properties of the ignimbrite at different distances from the eruption area changes significantly, the approach presented in this study can be considered for the ignimbrites especially covering a large area with different welding degrees and grains.","PeriodicalId":228529,"journal":{"name":"Discover Environment","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134912889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations over IGAD region of Eastern Africa 东非IGAD地区CMIP6历史模拟的评价

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00012-2

Paulino Omoj Omay, N. J. Muthama, C. Oludhe, J. Kinama, G. Artan, Z. Atheru

引用次数: 1

Measurements of traffic-related air pollution at a U.S.–Mexico port of entry and its impacts on nearby community 测量美国-墨西哥入境口岸与交通有关的空气污染及其对附近社区的影响

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00010-4

Wen-Whai Li, Mayra Chavez, Evan Williams, Leonardo Vazquez

引用次数: 0

Evaluating information with emergy: how did Howard T. Odum incorporate human information into emergy accounting? 用能量评估信息:Howard T. Odum如何将人类信息纳入能量会计?

Discover Environment Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s44274-023-00007-z

Thomas Abel