{"title":"Effect of Climate and Socio-Economic Changes on the State of the Baltic Sea Ecosystems","authors":"T. Eremina, O. Khaimina, O. M. Vladimirova","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-3","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, calculations are performed to reproduce the main components of the Baltic Sea ecosystems based on the stationary, boxed SANBALTS model under various scenarios of climate change in combination with two scenarios of the development of socio-economic conditions. Under various warming scenarios, a decrease in the nutrient load will lead to a reduction in the area of hypoxic zones in the Baltic Sea, while the most significant decrease in the area is due to the scenario of a reduction in the agricultural sector and population. The phosphorus in the benthic layer will decrease, the concentration of inorganic nitrogen will increase, and nitrogen fixation will decrease. The most noticeable decrease in primary production and an increase in water transparency is associated with a moderate climate change scenario and with a significant decrease in the nutrient load. The results showed that under certain combinations of scenarios, an improvement in the ecological state of the sea can be expected even under the most unfavorable climatic scenario.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"52 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macrozoobenthos of The Eastern Gulf of Finland: Current State and Influence on Biogeochemical Processes","authors":"A. Maximov, N. Berezina, O. B. Maximova","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-7","url":null,"abstract":"Macrozoobenthos plays an important role in biogeochemical processes. In the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, macrozoobenthos has been changing rapidly in recent decades due to the massive development of alien species of annelids. The current state of benthic communities in the Gulf of Finland is considered based on data at 24 stations in 2019–2021. In open areas of the bay, the biomass of the bivalves Macoma balthica increased as compared to the beginning of the 2010s. The populations of glacial relict crustaceans, which had greatly decreased in the early 2000s due to benthic hypoxia, have practically recovered. The abundance of oligochaetes has also increased due to the spread of the alien species Tubificoides pseudogaster. This led to a decrease in the proportion of alien polychaetes Marenzelleria spp. in the abundance and biomass of macrozoobenthos. Due to differences between species in living and bioturbation activity, the changes that have occurred in the benthos should affect the processes at the water–bottom interface. There is likely to be an increase in the supply of phosphorus from bottom sediments under modern conditions compared to the period of total dominance of polychaetes in benthic communities in the early 2010s.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"88 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. N. Filatov, O. P. Savchuk, V. N. Baklagin, N. E. Galakhina, M. B. Zobkov, A. V. Isaev, S. Kondratyev, N. Kalinkina, I. S. Novikova, A. Rasulova, M. Shmakova
{"title":"Diagnosis of The State and Changes in The Ecosystem of Lake Onego and Watershed Based on The Information-Analytical System","authors":"N. N. Filatov, O. P. Savchuk, V. N. Baklagin, N. E. Galakhina, M. B. Zobkov, A. V. Isaev, S. Kondratyev, N. Kalinkina, I. S. Novikova, A. Rasulova, M. Shmakova","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-2","url":null,"abstract":"The results of the diagnosis of the state and changes in the ecosystem of Onegskoe Lake (Lake Onego) and the watershed are presented using the developed information and analytical system “Lake Onego-watershed” (IAS), consisting of a comprehensive database (DB), a combined database of Roshydromet and Northern water problems institute/Karelian Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the nutrient load for the modern period 1995–2022, the ILLM mathematical model for assessing the removal of nutrients from the watershed and the formation of the nutrient load on the lake and the 3D-mathematical model SPLEM, developed for Lake Onego. Information was collected on the main sources of nutrient load in the Lake Onego catchment area, as well as available field observation data on the flow of nitrogen and phosphorus into the lake. The contribution of different nutrient sources coming from river runoff, diffuse sources, urban discharges and from trout farms was calculated for the lake and the main limnic areas. Based on data from field observations over the past 30 years and the results of numerical experiments using the SPLEM model with a grid resolution of 1 km it is shown that the ecosystem of the lake not only did not restored after the reduction in anthropogenic load after 1991, but eutrophication of waters in the lips and bays continues due to the influence of industrial and agricultural enterprises, trout farms and noticeable climate warming. Functional for the IAS “Lake Onego-catchment” to visualize the main modeling results on a 1 km grid was developed, and a web application interface has been created.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"17 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"About mathematical modeling in limnology, oceanology, ecology and economics in the works of V.V. Menchutkin","authors":"T. R. Minina, V. V. Menshutkin, N. N. Filatov","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-10","url":null,"abstract":"The article gives a brief review of the works of Doctor of Biological Sciences, Prof. V.V. Menshutkin for the 65-year period of scientific activity, which began in the 60s of the XX century with experimental works on the hydrophisics of Lake Baikal and the first mathematical models of the perch population of the small lake Kherya-Yarvi (Karelian Isthmus) and fish community in Lake Dalneye (Kamchatka). The latter was of great practical importance when concluding an agreement with Japan on catch quotas for sockeye salmon.V.V. Menshutkin’s range of interests was very wide and included mathematical modeling in biology, physiology, limnology, oceanology, demography, economics, ecology and rational nature management. The works on research of water objects and processes in them include modeling of dynamics of fish and aquatic invertebrate populations, Antarctic krill. He created mathematical models of ecosystems of Ladoga and Onega lakes, and during oceanic expeditions of the Academy of Sciences — of the Sea of Japan and the Peruvian upwelling area.His research in the field of physiology of blood circulation and water-salt metabolism, works related to space subjects, modeling of diagnostics and treatment of mental diseases are interesting. V.V. Menshutkin paid special attention to the issues of biological evolution. V.V. Menshutkin paid special attention to the issues of biological evolution and modeling of evolutionary process. The mathematical apparatus used by V.V. Menshutkin is very broad. The mathematical apparatus used by V.V. Menshutkin is very wide: from systems of differential equations to finite automata, neural networks, fuzzy logic and cognitive modeling (a new direction in artificial intelligence), with which the studies of ecological-socio-economic systems of water bodies catchments were connected.O.P. Savchuk and V.V. Menshutkin united research methods — mathematical modeling and objects under study: oceans, seas and lakes. However, their only joint work was the collective monograph on the results of “Nevskaya Guba” project, which conclusions became the basis for the important decision to complete the construction of the dam in St. Petersburg.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"84 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Tikhonova, E. Zakharchuk, A. Gusev, V. S. Travkin, A. A. Pavlovsky
{"title":"The Influence of Modern Alluvial Areas on Sea Level Changes in The Neva Bay During Storm Surges in The Conditions of Operation of The Saint Petersburg Flood Prevention Faculty Complex","authors":"N. Tikhonova, E. Zakharchuk, A. Gusev, V. S. Travkin, A. A. Pavlovsky","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-9","url":null,"abstract":"Using numerical experiments with a three-dimensional baroclinic hydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea, which covers the refined grid area around the Neva Delta and Neva Bay, and takes into account the operations of the Saint Petersburg Flood Prevention Facility Complex (FPFC), we investigate the influence of modern alluvial areas on sea level changes in the Neva Bay and Neva Delta during storm surges, under different volumes of Neva River discharge. The hydrological conditions that developed in early December 2015, when Storm Desmond approached St. Petersburg, which caused three dangerous level rises in the east of the Gulf of Finland, one after the other. The alluvial deposits of territories do not have noticeable changes in the sea level of the Neva Bay with the gates of the FPFC closed during storm surges. It is shown that, depending on the runoff of the Neva, with the gates of the FPFC closed, additional sea level rises in the Neva Bay due to alluviation do not exceed 1–5 cm, while in the Neva Delta they reach 20.5 cm. The rise of the sea level to 161 cm at the Mining University, at which floods are recorded in St. Petersburg, occurs due to alluviation 1–2 hours earlier. At the maximum volume of Neva runoff for the autumn-winter period, 27 hours after the closure of the gates of the FPFC, a dangerous flood is recorded in the Neva Bay near the Mining University point, and 48 hours later — a particularly dangerous one.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"43 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Paka, V. Zhurbas, M. Golenko, A. Korzh, A. Kondrashov
{"title":"Variability of saltwater flow in the Hoburg Channel, Baltic Sea: in situ measurements vs NEMO modelling","authors":"V. Paka, V. Zhurbas, M. Golenko, A. Korzh, A. Kondrashov","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-8","url":null,"abstract":"A half-year long time series of the bottom layer velocity measured in situ in the Hoburg Channel displayed seven-day oscillations of the saltwater flow. The flow was characterized by alterations of surges with the increase of northward velocity to approximately 0.2–0.3 m/s and blockages when the northward velocity vanishes or becomes small negative. The measured time series of the northward velocity component was surprisingly highly correlated with the simulation by NEMO reanalysis at the correlation coefficient of 0.82 and the 95 % confidence limits of 0.76–0.86. The seven-day oscillations were accompanied by almost synchronous oscillations of the southeast component of the wind vector. It can be considered convincing evidence that the seven-day oscillations in the saltwater flow were caused by wind forcing.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Scenario Analysis of Socio-Economic and Climate Related Changes in Nutrient Load and Retention for the Pregolya River Catchment (South-Eastern Baltic): The View at the Beginning of 21st Century","authors":"B. Chubarenko, J. Gorbunova, D. Domnin","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-4","url":null,"abstract":"The study analysed the transboundary Pregolya River Catchment, covering both the Polish and Russian parts, using the HYPE hydrological module and FyrisNP emission-retention model. The results revealed significant spatial variations in nutrient retention. The data assessment indicates that, at the start of the 21st century, the nutrient load from the Polish part of the catchment is significantly greater than that from the Russian part. Model simulations based on climatic projections for the years 2041–2060, but with current nutrient loads, showed a significant level of uncertainty in the changes of nutrient export to the Baltic Sea. The range for total nitrogen was –10 % to +27 %, and for total phosphorus it was –29 % to –10 %. Model simulations based on different socio-economic scenarios, but current climate conditions, showed that if present 5-year trends are maintained, nutrient export will only increase slightly (3 % for total nitrogen and total phosphorus). If the plans for socio-economic growth of Polish and Russian local governments are implemented, including the expansion of agriculture in Kaliningrad Oblast, there will be a significant increase in nutrient export (78 % for total nitrogen and 55 % for total phosphorus).","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bioaccumulation of Cadmium and Copper in Different Areas of The Eastern Part of The Gulf of Finland","authors":"N. Berezina, N. N. Kamardin, A. Sharov","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Gulf of Finland (with the estuary of the Neva River) is located in the northeastern part of the Baltic Sea and plays a key role in the formation of biological resources and the quality of the natural environment of the entire Baltic Sea. Along with eutrophication, its ecosystem is subject to anthropogenic pollution with toxic elements, including heavy metals. In this work, we analyzed the content of cadmium and copper in bottom sediments of the Gulf of Finland and in the tissues of the dominant species of benthic macrofauna — the deposit-feeder polychaete Marenzelleria arctia and the predatory isopod Saduria entomon. Significant variability was found in the spatial distribution of these elements in both environments. The average concentrations of cadmium (0.67±0.1 mg/kg of dry matter) in bottom sediments were correspondingly two times higher, and copper (34.4±4.0 mg/ kg) 1.5 times lower than the threshold levels established for the Baltic Sea. A significantly higher content of these metals was found in the tissues of isopods than polychaetes; in some locations it is an order of magnitude higher in isopods than in polychaetes. The factor of trophic transfer of metals in the Gulf food web showed biomagnification, i. e. accumulation of metals during the transition from low-level consumers (M. arctia) to predatory consumers (S. entomon), cadmium by 3.7 times and copper by 8.7 times. Thus, both species of benthic animals have high accumulative activity in relation to cadmium and copper, which contributes to the active transport of both metals from bottom sediments to marine biota, and, ultimately, transfer to the higher levels of the food web (fish, birds and mammals).","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"54 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141817968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reproduction of the Current Climatic State of the Lake Ladoga Ecosystem","authors":"A. V. Isaev, V. Ryabchenko, A. Konik","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(2)-5","url":null,"abstract":"A three-dimensional ecohydrodynamic model of Lake Ladoga based on the St. Petersburg Baltic Eutrophication Model (SPBEM) is proposed. Unlike existing models of the Lake Ladoga ecosystem, the proposed model is implemented on a high-resolution spherical grid (horizontal grid size ≈1 km), contains a benthic layer module and describes the cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water column and bottom sediments. A run of the seasonal and interannual variability of the state of Lake Ladoga in the period 1979–2018 was carried out when setting as forcing the atmospheric influence and runoff of rivers flowing into Lake Ladoga for the hydrothermodynamic module and the supply of nutrients from the atmosphere and from land for the biogeochemical module. A comparison of the results of calculating the current climatic state of Lake Ladoga with the available satellite andexpeditionary observation data showed that the model correctly reproduces the climatic seasonal variation of the surface temperature field, its vertical distribution, average values and range of changes in the main characteristics of the lake’s ecosystem. The proposed model can be used to study the influence of external natural and anthropogenic factors on biogeochemical processes and the functioning of the Lake Ladoga ecosystem.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"25 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141818291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wave resistance of slender body in unsteady motion under an ice sheet","authors":"A. Pogorelova, V. Zemlyak, V. Kozin","doi":"10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(1)-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59887/2073-6673.2024.17(1)-6","url":null,"abstract":" The paper is devoted to the theoretical study of the rectilinear unsteady movement of a slender body in a liquid near the free surface and an ice sheet. Water is an ideal incompressible liquid, and the motion of the liquid is potential. The ice cover is modeled by a floating viscoelastic plate. The viscoelastic properties of ice are described using the Kelvin–Voigt model. A slender body of a given shape in the liquid flow is modeled by the flow of the source-sink system. Various modes of body movement are considered: acceleration, deceleration, movement at a given speed. The effect of the ice sheet, acceleration and deceleration of the body on its wave resistance is analyzed. It is obtained that unsteady modes of motion (acceleration and deceleration) significantly affect the wave resistance of a slender body. Motion with low initial acceleration makes it possible to reduce amplitude of the first-time hump of wave resistance. During body deceleration to a full stop, the curve of wave resistance has an oscillations. Reduction of deceleration coefficient results in decrease of oscillation amplitude of wave resistance curve. The presence of the ice cover smoothes the hump of wave resistance during acceleration and reduces the number of oscillations and their amplitude during deceleration.","PeriodicalId":218146,"journal":{"name":"Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics","volume":"103 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140678850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}