Risk Decision and Policy最新文献_第2页

Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis 使用决策分析降低风险的优先级

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490505585

T. Bedford, J. Quigley

{"title":"Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis","authors":"T. Bedford, J. Quigley","doi":"10.1080/14664530490505585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14664530490505585","url":null,"abstract":"The ALARP principle is applied in many areas to regulate the tolerable level of risk. Usually the principle is operationalized by assigning a value per fatality. A cost-benefit analysis is used to trade the expected value of lives saved with the costs of technical measures required to reduce risks. In sectors in which risks have been reduced over a period of years, it is difficult to pinpoint those areas in which further risk reduction might be sought. In this article we show that many different risk reduction mechanisms can be considered simultaneously in a decision analysis framework. Using influence diagrams it is straightforward to build mini-decision analysis models in which competing alternatives addressing the same risk can be compared. The mini-model decision alternatives are assembled into decision strategies representing the best possible combination of alternatives at different cost/benefit ratios. Disynergies between the different alternatives are highlighted through the model. The overall aim is to build a high-level model to explore the sensitivity of risk reduction measures to the value per fatality parameter. This enables decision makers to gain a better understanding of the cost of measures required to obtain a global reduction in risk.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122956715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Causal modeling using Bayesian belief nets for integrated safety at airports 基于贝叶斯信念网的机场综合安全因果建模

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490505576

A. Roelen, R. Wever, A. Hale, L. Goossens, R. Cooke, R. Lopuhaä, M. Simons, P. Valk

引用次数: 10

On the economic value of safety 论安全的经济价值

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490505602

F. Asche, T. Aven

引用次数: 24

Soft Markov chain relations for modeling organizational behavior 组织行为建模的软马尔可夫链关系

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490464914

J. Cooper

引用次数: 5

Risk and uncertainty in environmental and resource economics: insights from an international conference at Wageningen, June 2002 环境和资源经济学的风险和不确定性:来自瓦赫宁根国际会议的见解，2002年6月

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490464761

J. Wesseler, Jock R. Anderson

{"title":"Risk and uncertainty in environmental and resource economics: insights from an international conference at Wageningen, June 2002","authors":"J. Wesseler, Jock R. Anderson","doi":"10.1080/14664530490464761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14664530490464761","url":null,"abstract":"Risk in agriculture and natural resource management, as in life, is everywhere. But dealing with it systematically, whether for farmers, other natural resource managers, researchers, or anyone, can be challenging. A conference on Risk and Uncertainty in Environmental and Resource Economics was held in June 2002 in Wageningen. The problems covered included perceptions of, and attitudes to risk; approaches to risk management; precautionary approaches; and approaches taken to address irreversibilities under uncertainty and learning. The predominant empirical concern was with risks surrounding climate change, while there was considerable emphasis on natural resource management topics including agriculture. The overwhelming geographic perspectives taken were European or global. There is clearly yet no grand harmonization of approaches to dealing with the lack of certainty in environmental and resource management matters of contemporary and future concern. But some structure of approaches emerged out of the conference presentations, and the key elements of this structure, related to recognizing irreversibility when it prevails and dealing with risk aversion when it is relevant, are highlighted.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126385901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Risk investment, asset returns, and information 风险投资、资产回报和信息

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490464879

J. Zajac

引用次数: 0

A framework for future study of expert and lay differences in the judgment of risk 为今后研究专家与非专业人员在风险判断上的差异提供了框架

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490464752

George Wright, G. Rowe, A. McColl

引用次数: 2

Socio-technical knowledge for robust decision making in radioactive waste governance 在放射性废物治理稳健决策的社会技术知识

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/14664530490464806

Thomas Flüeler, R. Scholz