{"title":"Exports and Wages: Rent Sharing, Workforce Composition or Returns to Skills?","authors":"Mario Macis, F. Schivardi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2144757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2144757","url":null,"abstract":"We use linked employer-employee data from Italy to explore the relationship between exports and wages. Our empirical strategy exploits the 1992 devaluation of the Italian Lira, which represented a large and unforeseen shock to Italian firms' incentives to export. The results indicate that the export wage premium is due to exporting firms both (1) paying a wage premium above what their workers would earn in the outside labor market – the \"rent-sharing\" effect, and (2) employing workers whose skills command a higher price after the devaluation – the \"skill composition\" effect. The latter effect only emerges once we allow for the value of individual skills to differ in the pre- and post-devaluation periods. In fact, using a fixed measure of skills, as typically done in the literature, we would attribute the wage increase only to rent sharing. We also document that the export wage premium is larger for workers with more export-related experience. This indicates that the devaluation increased the demand for skills more useful for exporting, driving their relative price up.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81913750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Views on the Commission’s Draft EU Budget: Excessively Ambitious or Overly Timid?","authors":"A. Mijs, A. Schout","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2001362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2001362","url":null,"abstract":"The Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the post-2013 period is one of the most sensitive topics presently under discussion in the European Union. Budget negotiations are always complex and divisive for the parties concerned, but an additional factor in the current round is the impact of the euro crisis, which is evident throughout the process. The reactions to the European Commission’s proposal are mixed, with some finding it excessively ambitious and others finding it lacking in reform. This paper analyses the Commission proposal on the MFF and its reception by the member states. It argues that the Commission has put forward a well balanced proposal, which leaves enough room for reform. In the end, however, the outcome of the negotiations will strongly depend on the member states.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83144358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Darwinian Perspective on 'Exchange Rate Undervaluation'","authors":"Qingyuan Du, S. Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2708821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2708821","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how status competition for marriage partners can generate surprising effects on the real exchange rate (RER). In theory, a rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus of men) can generate a decline in the RER. The effect can be quantitatively large if the biological desire for a marriage partner is strong. We also provide within-China and cross-country empirical evidence to support the theory. As an application, our cross-country estimation suggests that sex ratio as well as other factors in the existing literature can account for the recent evolution in Chinese RER almost completely.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77465059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Currency Composition of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves: Stylized Facts from Multivariate Structural Time Series Modeling","authors":"Cem Payaslioğlu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2293325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2293325","url":null,"abstract":"The study is an empirical investigation dealing with the stylized fact about the currency composition of foreign exchange rezerves. IMF’s COFER database statistics featuring aggregated data for two groupings of countries, namely advanced economies (33 countries), and Emerging and developing economies (107 countries) are used in the computations.The methodology is based on multivariate structural time series (MSTS) applied to quarterly foreign exchange reserve series involving four main currencies namely, U.S. dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Japanese Yen for the 1999:1-2009:4 period. Rather than using the level of these series, their shares in total allocated reserves are calculated and hence used here. Empirical findings for advanced economies group indicate that a strong but negative correlation can be detected between the trend disturbances of UsD and Euro-Pound rezerve shares while a high positive correlation exists between the latter two. Consequently, this imposes a dependence structure in the form of a common trend between rezerve shares in these currencies. The common factor dependence structure changes noticeably for emerging economies group.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91503713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Varieties of Capitalism, Varieties of Vulnerabilities: Financial Crisis and its Impact on Welfare States in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States","authors":"J. Drahokoupil, M. Myant","doi":"10.12759/HSR.35.2010.2.266-295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12759/HSR.35.2010.2.266-295","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the implications of the 2008 financial crisis on welfare states and the capitalist diversity in the post-communist world, including Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It analyzes three political-economic varieties in the region: those of capitalism, welfare, and vulnerabilities to the crisis. The three varieties are linked, but there is also a considerable variation given the importance of political and policy factors. Economic growth models created different political and economic constraints on policies of adjustment to the crisis. In particular, currency substitution was associated with strong political preferences for defending exchange rates, with adjustment through reductions in public spending and wages. A variety of welfare models was associated with different political constituencies for welfare provision. The interplay of these constraints and political factors together with intervention of international institutions shapes the nature of welfare state adjustments. Early developments indicate also some unexpected outcomes.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75920846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Familiarity, Convenience, and Commodity Money: Spanish and Mexican Silver Dollars in Qing and Republican China","authors":"W. Bailey, Bin Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1424070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1424070","url":null,"abstract":"Using the available monthly and annual data from 1866 to 1928, we study the premiums at which foreign silver coins and silver-backed currency circulating in China sold relative to melt value, at both Shanghai and San Francisco. Silver-backed Chinese currency typically sold at a slight premium to its melt value, while Mexican and particularly Spanish silver dollars often sold at substantial premiums above melt value, averaging 2.25% and 16.09% respectively. Silver money premiums appear related to several measures of Chinese and global trade, competitiveness, and prosperity, including the extent of opium imports. We also offer potential psychological and cultural explanations for the observed premiums.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74886073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evidence for Sign Asymmetry of Exchange Rate Exposure","authors":"P. Jayasinghe","doi":"10.4038/cbj.v1i2.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4038/cbj.v1i2.115","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to find evidence for sign asymmetry of exchange rate exposure. An extended classification of the sources of asymmetry has been introduced in place of somewhat incomplete classification suggested by previous studies. In addition, a new measure is suggested in order to estimate the overall impact of incorporating sign asymmetry. The study results in several important findings: (a) there is evidence for the presence of sign asymmetry; (b) as it can work in either direction, it is not appropriate to make generalizations like incorporating sign asymmetry always leading to more/less exchange rate exposure; and (c) the exposure coefficients estimated by the models that do not capture sign asymmetry are likely to under/overestimate the exposure to exchange rate risk","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78743100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OECD 국가에서 재정지출이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향 (Government Spending Shocks, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate in OECD Countries)","authors":"Soyoung Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3077845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3077845","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Korean Abstract:</b> 본 연구는 패널 VAR 모형을 이용하여 20개 OECD 국가에서 재정지출 충격이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향에 관한 일반적인 실증분석 결과를 얻고자 하였다. 또한 그룹별 추정을 통해 국가 규모와 개방도에 따라 재정지출 충격이 미치는 영향이 어떻게 변하는가를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 20개국을 이용한 분석에서는 재정지출 충격이 경상수지를 뚜렷하게 악화시키나 실질환율 절하 효과는 확실하지 않다. (2) 개방도가 큰 경우 더 뚜렷한 실질환율 절하 효과를 볼 수 있으나 경상수지 악화는 더 일시적이다. (3) 국가규모가 큰 경우 경상수지 악화 효과가 더 뚜렷하게 나타난다. 재정확장 정책 후 실질환율 절하 현상은 전통적인 이론들에 부합하지 않지만, 국가 특성에 따른 차이는 기존 이론에 어느 정도 부합한다고 볼 수 있고 향후 이론적인 분석에서 국가별 특성의 차이를 고려하는 것이 중요함을 시사하고 있다. <b>English Abstract:</b> This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model, in order to provide empirical stylized facts. The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and the influence of openness and size on the effects of government spending shocks. The main findings are as follows. First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant. Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness. Third, the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than in the group of small countries. Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories, the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87266671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Upsides of Currency Manipulation: How China Survived the East Asian Crisis of 1997-8","authors":"Shira Kaplan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2253820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2253820","url":null,"abstract":"For more than a decade, the United States has spearheaded the efforts to pressure China to appreciate the yuan versus the dollar. China’s exchange rate regime has been accused of as manipulative and dishonest, as Beijing has sought to keep the yuan at a rate of between 10 and 40 percent under its supposed value. China’s devaluation of the yuan has not only undermined its Asian neighbors’ export growth; it has also widened significantly the current account gap between the United States and China over the past decade, burdening the US economy with an ever-increasing trade deficit. I argue that despite the inconvenience caused to the East Asian economies and to the United States’ economy in the past decade, China’s currency manipulation has been favorable and advantageous to its own growth. Specifically, I analyze how useful China’s exchange rate policy was before and throughout the East Asian crisis of 1997. My conclusion is that without China’s currency manipulation, it is possible that China would have been hit much harder by the financial crisis, such that it would have taken it much longer to emerge into the world’s globalized economy as a leading player. I discuss China’s motivation for currency manipulation in the context of its desire to avoid social and political unrest.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90639128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}