ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)最新文献_第5页

Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Appraisal (1986-2018) 金融深化对尼日利亚经济增长的影响:时间序列评价(1986-2018)

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.9734/ajarr/2019/v7i330181

Paschal Chikwado Nwakobi, D. Oleka, A. Ananwude

{"title":"Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Appraisal (1986-2018)","authors":"Paschal Chikwado Nwakobi, D. Oleka, A. Ananwude","doi":"10.9734/ajarr/2019/v7i330181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.9734/ajarr/2019/v7i330181","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of financial deepening on the economic growth of any nation cannot be underestimated. To this end, the study evaluated the effect of financial deepening on economic growth in Nigeria over a period of thirty three (33) years: 1986 to 2018. Data were collected from statistical bulletins of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and factbooks of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). The model estimation followed the Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach with the effect estimated in line with the Granger Causality analysis. We found that economic growth in Nigeria is not affected by financial deepening. The study also stated that the level of growth in the economy is what influences the level of development in the banking sector. The implication is that the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) should formulate and implement policies geared toward the deepening of the banking sector and the capital markets to help in the efficient and effective mobilization of resources to accelerate the growth of the Nigerian economy. The insurance sector should not be left out in this regard even though citizens seem not to embrace the need for insurance policies. Impediments to the competition in the banking, insurance and capital market activities should be removed by strict legislation in line with international best practices and participants in the markets be protected as well.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127769842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

A Critical Analysis on Macroeconomic Performances in India with Reference to Skill India, Start up India and International Trends. 参考“技能印度”、“创业印度”和国际趋势对印度宏观经济表现的批判性分析。

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3667707

Gaurang Asopa, Varun Vijayaragvan

引用次数: 0

Do Local and Global Factors Impact the Emerging Markets’s Sovereign Yield Curves? Evidence from a Data-Rich Environment 本地和全球因素影响新兴市场主权债券收益率曲线吗?来自数据丰富环境的证据

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3491730

Oğuzhan Çepni, I. Guney, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. H. Yılmaz

{"title":"Do Local and Global Factors Impact the Emerging Markets’s Sovereign Yield Curves? Evidence from a Data-Rich Environment","authors":"Oğuzhan Çepni, I. Guney, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. H. Yılmaz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3491730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3491730","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relation between yield curve and macroeconomic factors for ten emerging sovereign bond markets using the sample from January 2006 to April 2019. To this end, the diffusion indices obtained under four categories (global variables, inflation, domestic financial variables, and economic activity) are incorporated by estimating dynamic panel data regressions together with the yield curve factors. Besides, in order to capture dynamic interaction between yield curve and macroeconomic/financial factors, a panel VAR analysis based on the system GMM approach is utilized. Empirical results suggest that the level factor responds to shocks originated from inflation, domestic financial variables and global variables. Furthermore, the slope factor is affected by shocks in global variables, and the curvature factor appears to be influenced by domestic financial variables. We also show that macroeconomic/financial factors captures significant predictive information over yield curve factors by running individual country factor-augmented predictive regressions and variable selection algorithms such ridge regression, LASSO and Elastic Net. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and fund managers by explaining the underlying forces of movements in the yield curve and forecasting accurately dynamics of yield curve factors.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"799 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125754819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

What Determines the Exchange Rate of the Korean Won? 决定韩元汇率的因素是什么?

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3887356

D. Yoon

{"title":"What Determines the Exchange Rate of the Korean Won?","authors":"D. Yoon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3887356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3887356","url":null,"abstract":"The determination of exchange rates in international financial markets is, of course, based on the supply and demand between foreign exchange and the local currency. The supply of foreign exchange is determined by the current and capital account balances. In the world before the 1990s, when the capital market was not liberalized, the current account determined the supply of foreign exchange. As the share of income transfer between countries remained relatively low, the current account balance was actually determined by the trade balance. The Korean foreign exchange market is traded on a dollar basis, so the supply and demand of the dollar determines the Korean won’s exchange rate. In South Korea’s foreign exchange market, it is U.S. monetary policy that most directly affects the supply and demand of the dollar. U.S. monetary policy is more influential than Korea’s in determining the won’s exchange rate. This phenomenon is hardly limited to the Korean currency market. The index that works most closely with the Korean won’s exchange rate is the U.S. dollar index. The dollar index is an indicator of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The most important factor that determines the dollar index is U.S. monetary policy. Therefore, in order to predict any changes in the Korean won’s exchange rate, one must first look at the variables affecting the dollar index. Those looking to understand changes in Korea’s exchange rate should pay particular attention to changes in U.S. monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"933 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128848207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Productivity and Tax Evasion 生产力与逃税

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513518619.001

Era Dabla‐Norris, M. Gradstein, Fedor Miryugin, F. Misch

引用次数: 4

The Sources of International Investment Income in Emerging Market Economies 新兴市场经济体的国际投资收入来源

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3466373

J. Joyce

引用次数: 3

Global Financial Inclusion Environment: The Nexus to India 全球普惠金融环境:与印度的联系

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3464374

V. C

{"title":"Global Financial Inclusion Environment: The Nexus to India","authors":"V. C","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3464374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3464374","url":null,"abstract":"Financial inclusion can really pick up the financial conditions and standards of living of the disadvantaged groups. Various countries are promoting financial inclusion across the world. The list includes Peru, Colombia, Philippines, Pakistan, Chile, Tanzania, Bolivia, Mexico, Bangladesh, South Africa, Kenya and Brazil. Particularly, Brazil has succeeded in financial inclusion using Business Correspondent Model. India also has a similar demographic profile can emulate the policies as successfully as implemented by Brazil. Financial inclusion has been accorded high importance by the Reserve Bank to aid the inclusive growth process of the economy. There have been formidable challenges in this area such as bringing sections of society that are financially excluded within the ambit of the formal financial system, providing financial literacy and strengthening credit delivery mechanisms. The present paper explains the Financial Inclusion: Global Scenario, Financial Inclusion Environment Ranking Methodology, Region-wise trend analysis of Average Financial Inclusion Index, Current Scenario of Financial Inclusion in India, Key Parameters of Financial Inclusion in India, Trends in India’s overall Financial Inclusion Index Score, Challenges of Financial Inclusion in India and the measures to overcome such challenges.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127087757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies 宏观经济挑战与新兴市场经济体的韧性

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26361

J. Aizenman

{"title":"Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies","authors":"J. Aizenman","doi":"10.3386/w26361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26361","url":null,"abstract":"A Growing share of Emerging Markets (EMs) use hybrid versions of inflation targeting (IT) that differ from the IT regimes of OECD countries. Policy interest rates among commodity countries are impacted by real exchange rate and international reserves (IR) changes, aiming at stabilizing their real exchange rate in the presence of volatile terms of trade and heightened exposure to capital inflow/outflow shocks. IT works well with independent central banks; yet, fiscal dominance concerns may hinder the efficacy and independency of central banks. This suggests experimenting with the integration of monetary rules with fiscal rules, possibly linking these rules with the operations of buffers like IR and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). The Global Financial Crisis validated the benefits of counter-cyclical management of international reserves and SWFs in reducing the volatility of real exchange rates. Macro-prudential policies may complement or even substitute buffer policies by reducing a country’s balance sheet exposure to foreign currency debt, mitigating the risk of costly sudden-stops and capital flight. A growing share of EMs is exposed to new financial technologies (fintech), providing cheaper and faster financial services, deepening financial coverage to previously under-served populations. Deeper fintech diffusion may redirect financial intermediation from regulated banks to emerging fintech shadow banks, some of which may have global reach. These developments, and the diffusion of cryptocurrencies promising anonymized payment systems may hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy, and eventually induce greater financial instability. States may encourage the diffusion of efficient financial intermediation in ways that benefit users, while restricting the use of anonymized exchange and global monies to reduce the threat of a shrinking tax base, and to maintain financial stability.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131184797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Does Asset Quality Matter in Relationship between Bank Capital on Lending Growth? 银行资本对贷款增长的影响是否与资产质量有关?

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-09-28 DOI: 10.34218/ijm.10.5.2019.004

Ahmad Aziz Putra Pratama

{"title":"Does Asset Quality Matter in Relationship between Bank Capital on Lending Growth?","authors":"Ahmad Aziz Putra Pratama","doi":"10.34218/ijm.10.5.2019.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34218/ijm.10.5.2019.004","url":null,"abstract":"Mostly, loans are important source of income for banks and capital is used to absorb shocks during a bank’s worst periods. Credit risk is a major concern for the banking industry as the ratio of bad loans increases. The purpose of this research examines the effect of bank capital on lending growth with moderation of asset quality of banking sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This study used Fixed Effect Model. Data obtained from the company's financial report published in 2009- 2018 period. Dependent variable in this research is lending growth proxied with Net Loan Growth. Independent variable used bank capital proxied with Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Moderating Variable in this research used asset quality proxied with Non Performing Loan (NPL). In addition, controlling variable in this study are liquidity level, firm size and bank performance. The results showed that bank capital has a significant positive effect on lending growth, while the bad asset quality mitigates the positive effect of bank capital on lending growth. This results are in line with policies that have been made by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) about maintaning capital adequacy ratio and non performing loan.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"291 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122796400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Systemic Risk of the Consumer Credit Network across Financial Institutions 跨金融机构消费信贷网络的系统性风险

ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3454936

Hosung Jung, Hyun Hak Kim

{"title":"Systemic Risk of the Consumer Credit Network across Financial Institutions","authors":"Hosung Jung, Hyun Hak Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3454936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3454936","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate a network of financial institutions in Korea using the Korea Consumer Credit Panel (KCCP). The main contribution of this paper is that we construct the network of financial institution from the consumer credit level. We assume each consumer make a loan from multiple institutions so that those institutions share same risk from same consumer no matter of quality or type of loan. Then we construct the financial network between institutions and compute contagion index based on those multiple connection with a weight of default probability of individual borrowers. We found strong connection with banking institutions and credit card firms due to convenience in making small-amount loans with credit cards. However, when we give an weight with default probability to the linkage among institutions, connections of banking institution with savings bank, non-credit card finance corporation and merchant banking are stronger than others, while banking institution holds center position and has biggest amount of loans individually. Contagion index hit a peak in 2013Q1 and then fell rapidly, finally has been fluctuated in relatively low level from 2016 to 2017Q2. The result in our paper enables the authority to watch the systemic risk from consumer credit level with specific consumer type with their default probability.","PeriodicalId":197745,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Emerging Markets Economics: Macroeconomic Issues & Challenges (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116418159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2