{"title":"Less Equal and Less Mobile: Evidence of a Decline in Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States","authors":"Moshe Justman, A. Krush","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2370189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2370189","url":null,"abstract":"We identify a declining trend in the intergenerational mobility of men’s family income in the United States for sons aged 36-45 between 1997 and 2011, corresponding to fifteen successive rolling ten-year cohort-groups born between 1952 and 1975. Using PSID data to 2008, we first predict fathers’ and sons’ income at age forty within each cohort-group, as a proxy for lifetime income, and then regress sons’ lifetime income on their fathers’ income, in logarithmic form, within each group. This yields fifteen successive estimates of the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) of income, ranging from a low of 0.421 for sons aged 36-45 in 1997 through a high of 0.516 for 2007 to a final value of .483 for 2011, with a statistically significant annual slope of .0037. Intergenerational correlations and rank correlations similarly exhibit a significant rising trend in this period, as does the IGE of men’s earnings, all of which indicate declining intergenerational mobility. The Gini coefficient of sons’ lifetime income within these fifteen successive cohort-groups also increases, exhibiting a correlation of 0.71 with our IGE estimates and leading us to conclude that as the United States economy has become less equal in recent years it has also become less mobile.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127451575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Endogenous Wage Indexation and Aggregate Shocks","authors":"J. Carrillo, G. Peersman, J. Wauters","doi":"10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2013.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2013.19","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical and institutional evidence finds considerable time variation in the degree of wage indexation to past inflation, a finding that is at odds with the assumption of constant indexation parameters in most New-Keynesian DSGE models. We build a DSGE model with endogenous wage indexation in which utility maximizing workers select a wage indexation rule in response to aggregate shocks and monetary policy. We show that workers index wages to past inflation when output fluctuations are primarily explained by technology and permanent inflation-target shocks, whereas they index to trend inflation when aggregate demand shocks dominate output fluctuations. The model’s equilibrium wage setting can explain the time variation in wage indexation found in post-WWII U.S. data.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125914053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Langevin, David Masclet, Fabien Moizeau, Emmanuel Peterlé
{"title":"Educational Attainment, Wages and Employment of Second-Generation Immigrants in France","authors":"G. Langevin, David Masclet, Fabien Moizeau, Emmanuel Peterlé","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2342288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2342288","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from the Trajectoires et Origines survey to analyze the labor-market outcomes of both second-generation immigrants and their French native counterparts. Second-generation immigrants have on average a lower probability of employment and lower wages than French natives. We find however considerable differences between second-generation immigrants depending on their origin: while those originating from Northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Turkey are less likely to be employed and receive lower wages than French natives, second-generation immigrants with Asian or Southern- and Eastern-European origins do not differ significantly from their French native counterparts. The employment gap between French natives and second generation immigrants is mainly explained by differences in their education; education is also an important determinant of the ethnic wage gap. Finally we show that these differences in educational attainment are mainly explained by family background. Although the role of discrimination cannot be denied, our findings do point out the importance of family background in explaining lifelong ethnic inequalities.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115835448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Revisiting Italian Emigration Before the Great War: A Test of the Standard Economic Model","authors":"P. Ardeni, Andrea Gentili","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2336910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2336910","url":null,"abstract":"Among the many studies on migration before the Great War, Italy has received little attention, with a few notable exceptions and without providing a convincing explanation of its economic and demographic determinants. Standard neoclassical approaches explain emigration as driven by relative wages, relative employment rates and the stock of previous emigrants. We aim at improving on earlier contributions by covering all migration outflows from Italy to the most significant destination countries and by adopting the most consistent and up-to-date econometric approaches. As it turns out, the standard model is not fully confirmed and a more nuanced analysis is needed.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128335296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Skewness and Kurtosis Properties of Income Distribution Models","authors":"James B. McDonald, J. Sorensen, P. Turley","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2011.00478.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2011.00478.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the ability of some popular income distributions to model observed skewness and kurtosis. We present the generalized beta type 1 (GB1) and type 2 (GB2) distributions' skewness–kurtosis spaces and clarify and expand on previously known results on other distributions' skewness–kurtosis spaces. Data from the Luxembourg Income Study are used to estimate sample moments and explore the ability of the generalized gamma, Dagum, Singh–Maddala, beta of the first kind, beta of the second kind, GB1, and GB2 distributions to accommodate the skewness and kurtosis values. The GB2 has the flexibility to accurately describe the observed skewness and kurtosis.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116454616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Learning about Wage and Price Mark-Ups in Euro Area Countries","authors":"E. Angelini, A. Dieppe, Beatrice Pierluigi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2213333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2213333","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB JEL Classification: E24, E27, E30, E37, J30","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123567680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Immigration, Particularly Increases in Latinos, Affect African American Wages, Unemployment and Incarceration Rates?","authors":"Jack Strauss","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2186978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2186978","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the impact of immigration on African American wages, unemployment, employment and incarceration rates using a relatively large cross-sectional data-set of 900 cities. An endemic problem potentially plaguing the cross-sectional metro approach to immigration has been endogeneity. Does increased immigration to a city lead to improved economic outcomes, or does a city's improving labor market attract immigrant inflows? The paper focuses on resolving the endogeneity concerns through a variety of controls, statistical methods and tests. Overall, results strongly support one-way causation from increased immigration including Latinos to higher African American wages and lower poverty. Rising immigration including from Latin America is not responsible for higher Black incarceration rates.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123417652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Legal Abortion on the Wage Distribution: Evidence from the 1970 New York Abortion Reform","authors":"Dana Rotz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2181061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2181061","url":null,"abstract":"Three years before the ruling on Roe v. Wade, New York became the first state to allow all women legal access to abortion on demand. In this study, I determine the extent to which this change in reproductive rights impacted the characteristics of mothers giving birth in New York, their newborns, and these children’s future wages. I first use birth certificate data and a regression discontinuity design to examine the socioeconomic status of infants conceived in the weeks before and after New York’s reform. This analysis suggests that after abortion’s legalization, children were born into families with greater resources. Next, using reported age and quarter of birth in the 2005 to 2010 American Community Surveys, I estimate the probability that a worker’s mother completed her first trimester of pregnancy after the New York reform and thus had access to legal abortion. I then compare the wages of native-born New Yorkers reporting the same age (in whole years) but with different estimates of mother’s abortion access. By allowing women to better-time their births, the legalization of abortion increased the eventual wages of black, Hispanic, and lower-wage workers.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122803867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context?","authors":"M. Cropper","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2165532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2165532","url":null,"abstract":"Should governments, in discounting the future benefits and costs of public projects, use a discount rate that declines over time? The argument for a declining discount rate is a simple one: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are persistent, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, this will result in a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. A growing empirical literature estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the declining discount rate schedule. I briefly review this literature, focusing on models for the United States. This literature has, however, been criticized for a lack of connection to the theory of project evaluation. In cost-benefit analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are to be discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula. The Ramsey formula results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. Using the extended Ramsey formula to estimate a numerical schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates is, however, challenging.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115083979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Merits of Meritocracy","authors":"J. Morgan, D. Sisak, Felix Várdy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2045954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2045954","url":null,"abstract":"We study career choice when competition for promotion is a contest. A more meritocratic profession always succeeds in attracting the highest ability types, whereas a profession with superior promotion benefits attracts high types only if the hazard rate of the noise in performance evaluation is strictly increasing. Raising promotion opportunities produces no systematic effect on the talent distribution, while a higher base wage attracts talent only if total promotion opportunities are sufficiently plentiful.","PeriodicalId":196465,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (Topic)","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116318865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}