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Inequality Affects Long-Run Growth: Cross-Industry, Cross-Country Evidence 不平等影响长期增长:跨行业、跨国家的证据
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3592024
R. Gutiérrez-Romero
{"title":"Inequality Affects Long-Run Growth: Cross-Industry, Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"R. Gutiérrez-Romero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3592024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3592024","url":null,"abstract":"The theoretical literature has predicted that inequality affects long-run growth by reducing human and physical capital, particularly in the presence of imperfect credit markets and other contractual frictions. We test these four mechanisms using measures of inequality at the country-level, dating as far back as the 1700s, and the 1800s, and data for 27 manufacturing industries across 88 countries during 1981–2015. Our findings show industries that are more dependent on financial markets experience lower long-run growth in real output, number of firms and real salaries in more unequal countries compared to more egalitarian. Similarly, industries intensive in physical capital experience lower growth in salaries in highly unequal countries. However, there is no evidence that industries intensive in human capital experience any differential growth in output, the number of firms, average number of employees or salaries in unequal countries compared to more egalitarian, suggesting that the progress made in public schooling provision could have lessened the effect of inequality. Moreover, industries with complex contractual arrangements experience lower growth in the number of firms and paradoxically higher growth in the number of employees hired in more unequal countries, in line with the predictions of the theoretical literature. These findings are robust to using contemporaneous indicators of inequality and instrumental variable specifications.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129391705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bridge Proxy-SVAR: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks Identified at High-Frequency 桥代理- svar:估计高频震荡的宏观经济影响
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612961
A. Gazzani, Alejandro Vicondoa
{"title":"Bridge Proxy-SVAR: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks Identified at High-Frequency","authors":"A. Gazzani, Alejandro Vicondoa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612961","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a novel methodology, the Bridge Proxy-SVAR, which exploits high-frequency information for the identification of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models employed in macroeconomic analysis. The methodology is comprised of three steps: (I) identifying the structural shocks of interest in high-frequency systems; (II) aggregating the series of high-frequency shocks at a lower frequency; and (III) using the aggregated series of shocks as a proxy for the corresponding structural shock in lower frequency VARs. We show that the methodology correctly recovers the impact effect of the shocks, both formally and in Monte Carlo experiments. Thus the Bridge Proxy-SVAR can improve causal inference in macroeconomics that typically relies on VARs identified at low-frequency. In an empirical application, we identify uncertainty shocks in the U.S. by imposing weaker restrictions relative to the existing literature and find that they induce mildly recessionary effects.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124375229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
The Carbon Footprint of Italian Loans 意大利贷款的碳足迹
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612761
Ivan Faiella, Luciano Lavecchia
{"title":"The Carbon Footprint of Italian Loans","authors":"Ivan Faiella, Luciano Lavecchia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612761","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a first insight on the carbon content of business loans in Italy, using three different methods to identify the sectors more exposed to transition risks. According to our estimates, the loans’ carbon footprint of Italian banks is small compared to other European peers and the outstanding loans exposed to transition risk can be estimated in a range between 37 and 53 percent of total loans as of 2018 data, according to the methodology used. This information can be used as a starting point to evaluate, within a climate-scenario framework, how different climate policies influence the stability of the banking sector","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123587535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Financial Markets and Institutions: A European Perspective (Chapter 1) 金融市场与机构:欧洲视角(第一章)
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3593322
Jakob de Haan, D. Schoenmaker, Peter Wierts
{"title":"Financial Markets and Institutions: A European Perspective (Chapter 1)","authors":"Jakob de Haan, D. Schoenmaker, Peter Wierts","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3593322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3593322","url":null,"abstract":"Written for undergraduate and graduate students of finance, economics and business, the fourth edition of Financial Markets and Institutions provides a fresh analysis of the European financial system. Combining theory, data and policy, this successful textbook examines and explains financial markets, financial infrastructures, financial institutions and the challenges of monetary policy, financial supervision and competition policy.The fourth edition features not only greater discussion of the financial and euro crises and post-crisis reforms, but also new market developments like FinTech, block-chain, cryptocurrencies and shadow banking. On the policy side, new material covers unconventional monetary policies, the Banking Union, the Capital Markets Union, Brexit, the Basel 3 capital adequacy framework for banking supervision and macro-prudential policies. The new edition also features wider international coverage, with greater emphasis on comparisons with countries outside the European Union, including the United States, China and Japan.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126884398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Status of the Population at National Level in the Context of Current Challenges 当前挑战背景下国家一级人口的财政状况
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3576158
Otilia Manta, Iuliana Militaru, Ovidiu Folcut
{"title":"Financial Status of the Population at National Level in the Context of Current Challenges","authors":"Otilia Manta, Iuliana Militaru, Ovidiu Folcut","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3576158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3576158","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of the current challenges, the measures and solutions proposed at national, European and / or global level, we consider that they must be based on data series on a factual situation. In our case, the purpose pursued in this paper is given by the realization of an image graphically represented, with multiannual coverage (2007-2018), of the evolution of the financial indicators of the population. Moreover, the essential objective of perspective consists in establishing the basic pillars of the concentrated picture of the financial indicators of the population in terms of the achieved values of the absolute primary indicators, on the basis of which the values of the relevant relative indicators characterizing the financial status of the population have been calculated, with influence on the potential and performance of the national economy. From the developments presented in this paper, we consider that the decisions regarding the programs addressed to the population can be based on these indicators related to the financial status of the population.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"149 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127155460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Credit Debt Moratorium by COVID-19 as a Minimum Measure (La Moratoria De Deuda Crediticia Por COVID-19, Una Medida De Mínimos) 作为最低措施的2019冠状病毒病信用债务暂停(COVID-19)
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3578555
F. Zunzunegui
{"title":"The Credit Debt Moratorium by COVID-19 as a Minimum Measure (La Moratoria De Deuda Crediticia Por COVID-19, Una Medida De Mínimos)","authors":"F. Zunzunegui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3578555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3578555","url":null,"abstract":"Among the measures adopted by the Spanish government to face the economic crisis caused by the state of alarm of COVID-19, the moratorium on credit debt stands out. With this measure, it is about taking a leap in time to overcome the break and restart economic life. It is not a social rescue as in the financial crisis of 2008, it is a measure of re-engagement in activity. It is about giving a break to the most affected debtors to overcome the impasse. This article analyses the measure, its scope and limitations, making some critical considerations. We are facing an urgent regulation carried out in a hasty manner that has had to be modified within a few days to fill gaps and complete its scope. It is a minimum measure, which banks must take advantage of to overcome this temporary standstill in economic life and which particularly affects credit debt.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126290241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bond vs Bank Finance and the Great Recession 债券vs银行融资和大衰退
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3643293
M. M. Martins, Fabio Verona
{"title":"Bond vs Bank Finance and the Great Recession","authors":"M. M. Martins, Fabio Verona","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3643293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3643293","url":null,"abstract":"The typical increase of the corporate bond-to-bank ratio during downturns is known to mitigate business cycle recessions. In the three longest and deepest post-war U.S. recessions this ratio didn't increase from their outsets. In this paper we focus on the timing of the corporate bank-to-bond substitution in the Great Recession, simulating counterfactual paths for output growth under plausible notional behaviors of the bond-to-bank ratio. We find that the Great Recession would have been milder and the recovery much stronger if the bank-to-bond substitution had started since the outset of the recession and evolved thereafter as in most U.S. recessions.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127805191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are the Liquidity and Collateral Roles of Asset Bubbles Different? 资产泡沫的流动性和抵押品角色不同吗?
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3572024
Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Xavier Raurich, Thomas Seegmuller
{"title":"Are the Liquidity and Collateral Roles of Asset Bubbles Different?","authors":"Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Xavier Raurich, Thomas Seegmuller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3572024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3572024","url":null,"abstract":"Several recent papers introduce different mechanisms to explain why asset bubbles are observed in periods of larger growth. These papers share common assumptions, heterogeneity among traders and credit market imperfection , but differ in the role of the bubble, used to provide liquidities or as collateral in a borrowing constraint. In this paper, we introduce heterogeneous traders by considering an overlapping generations model with households living three periods. Young households cannot invest in capital, while adults have access to investment and face a borrowing constraint. Introducing bubbles in a quite general way, encompassing the different roles they have in the existing literature, we show that the bubble may enhance growth when the borrowing constraint is binding. More significantly, our results do not depend on the-liquidity or collateral-role attributed to the bubble. We finally extend our analysis to a stochas-tic bubble, which may burst with a positive probability. Because credit and bubble are no more perfectly substitutable assets, the liquidity and collateral roles of the bubble are not equivalent. Growth is larger when bubbles play the liquidity role, because the burst of a bubble used for liquidity is less damaging to agents who invest in capital.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134303624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Impact of Credit for House Price Overvaluations in the Euro Area: Evidence from Threshold Models 信贷对欧元区房价高估的影响:来自阈值模型的证据
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560049
Christian Dreger, Dieter Gerdesmeier, Barbara Roffia
{"title":"The Impact of Credit for House Price Overvaluations in the Euro Area: Evidence from Threshold Models","authors":"Christian Dreger, Dieter Gerdesmeier, Barbara Roffia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3560049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3560049","url":null,"abstract":"The critical role of house prices for macroeconomic and financial stability is widely acknowl-edged since the global financial crisis. While house prices showed spectacular increases and even a bubble-like behaviour in the pre-crisis years, their fall thereafter was accompanied by deep recessions in many countries. Loose monetary conditions, such as the easy availability of credit, are often blamed to be fuelling such booms. In this paper, the link between credit and house prices is investigated for the euro area in a nonlinear model framework. This choice is motivated by the idea that the linkages between these two variables can be governed by a regime-switching behaviour. Threshold VAR (TVAR) models are estimated, which comprise real house price and credit developments, business and monetary conditions. Optimal breakpoints are determined via a grid search. The relationship between the variables is not stable. If output growth and interest rate changes serve as thresholds, two regimes can be distinguished. Conversely, if house prices and credit control the regime change, three regimes are more appropriate. Nonlinear impulse responses suggest that credit developments respond to house prices, while the reverse causality is less significant. Thus, the modest recovery of credit at the current edge can only be partially attributed to the recent acceleration of house prices in the euro area.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125611011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
FinTech Credit: A Critical Review of Empirical Research Literature 金融科技信贷:实证研究文献的批判性回顾
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612726
Nicola Branzoli, I. Supino
{"title":"FinTech Credit: A Critical Review of Empirical Research Literature","authors":"Nicola Branzoli, I. Supino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612726","url":null,"abstract":"FinTech credit has attracted significant attention from academics and policymakers in recent years. Given its growing importance, in this paper we provide an overview of the empirical research on FinTech credit to households and non-financial corporations (NFCs). We focus on three broad topics: i) the factors supporting the development of innovative business models for credit intermediation, such as marketplace lending; ii) the benefits of new credit risk assessment data and methods; iii) the implications of these innovations for access to credit. Three main messages emerge from the literature. First, the growth of lenders with innovative business models is mainly driven by the degree of local economic development and of competition in the banking sector. Second, new data and methods can improve traditional credit risk models because they are particularly helpful in screening opaque borrowers, such as those with scant credit history. Third, FinTech borrowers generally lack (or have limited) access to finance and tend to be riskier than traditional bank borrowers.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"33 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120821756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
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