Advances in Business and Management Forecasting最新文献

Service Contracts for Delays in Delivery 延迟交货服务合同

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013008

Amit Mitra

{"title":"Service Contracts for Delays in Delivery","authors":"Amit Mitra","doi":"10.1108/S1477-407020190000013008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020190000013008","url":null,"abstract":"The service industry is a major component of the economy. Raw material, components, assemblies, and finished products are shipped between suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. Accordingly, timely receipt of shipped goods is crucial in maintaining the efficiency and effectiveness of such service processes. A service provider offers an incentive to the customer by specifying a competitive target time for delivery of goods. Further, if the delivery time is deviant from the target value, the provider offers to reimburse the customer for an amount that is proportional to the value of the goods and the degree of deviation from the target value. The service provider may set the price to be charged as a function of product value. This price is in addition to the operational costs of logistics that are not considered in the formulated model. For protection against deviation from target due dates, the service provider agrees to reimburse the customer. The reimbursement could be based on an asymmetric loss function influenced by the degree of deviation from the target due date as well as product value. The penalties could be different for early and late deliveries since the customer may experience different impact and consequences accordingly. The chapter develops a model to determine the amount (price) that the provider should add to the cost estimate of the delivery contract for protection against delivery deviations. Such a cost estimate will include the operational costs (fixed and variable) of the shipment, to which an amount is added to cover the expected payout to customers when the delivery time deviates from the target value. The optimal price should be such that the expected revenue will at least exceed the expected payout.","PeriodicalId":190722,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130656183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Growth, Business Cycles, and the Great Recession: Comparing State and County Unemployment Costs Per Capita for North Carolina 增长、商业周期和大衰退:比较北卡罗来纳州州和县的人均失业成本

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013009

Christopher M. Keller, James W. Kleckley

引用次数: 0

Regression Modeling Based on a Peer Group for the Executive Compensation of AT&T CEO 基于同行群的AT&T高管薪酬回归模型

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013013

R. Klimberg, K. Lawrence, Sheila M. Lawrence

引用次数: 0

Exploring the Suitability of Support Vector Regression and Radial Basis Function Approximation to Forecast Sales of Fortune 500 Companies 探讨支持向量回归和径向基函数逼近在世界500强企业销售预测中的适用性

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013006

Vivian M. Evangelista, R. Regis

{"title":"Exploring the Suitability of Support Vector Regression and Radial Basis Function Approximation to Forecast Sales of Fortune 500 Companies","authors":"Vivian M. Evangelista, R. Regis","doi":"10.1108/S1477-407020190000013006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020190000013006","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning methods have recently gained attention in business applications. We will explore the suitability of machine learning methods, particularly support vector regression (SVR) and radial basis function (RBF) approximation, in forecasting company sales. We compare the one-step-ahead forecast accuracy of these machine learning methods with traditional statistical forecasting techniques such as moving average (MA), exponential smoothing, and linear and quadratic trend regression on quarterly sales data of 43 Fortune 500 companies. Moreover, we implement an additive seasonal adjustment procedure on the quarterly sales data of 28 of the Fortune 500 companies whose time series exhibited seasonality, referred to as the seasonal group. Furthermore, we prove a mathematical property of this seasonal adjustment procedure that is useful in interpreting the resulting time series model. Our results show that the Gaussian form of a moving RBF model, with or without seasonal adjustment, is a promising method for forecasting company sales. In particular, the moving RBF-Gaussian model with seasonal adjustment yields generally better mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values than the other methods on the sales data of 28 companies in the seasonal group. In addition, it is competitive with single exponential smoothing and better than the other methods on the sales data of the other 15 companies in the non-seasonal group.","PeriodicalId":190722,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130062733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dimension Reduction in Bankruptcy Prediction: A Case Study of North American Companies 破产预测的降维方法:以北美公司为例

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013010

Son Nguyen, Edward Golas, W. Zywiak, K. Kennedy

引用次数: 1

Index 指数

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/s1477-407020190000013001

引用次数: 0

Buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store Strategy and Showroom Strategy in the Omnichannel Retailing 全渠道零售中的网上购买到店提货策略与陈列室策略

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013007

Feng Yang, Xue Li, Zhimin Huang

{"title":"Buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store Strategy and Showroom Strategy in the Omnichannel Retailing","authors":"Feng Yang, Xue Li, Zhimin Huang","doi":"10.1108/S1477-407020190000013007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020190000013007","url":null,"abstract":"In an omnichannel environment, customers switch channels from product discovery to eventual purchase decision strategically. Hence, the biggest challenge for retailers nowadays is how to operate an effective omnichannel strategy. To improve inventory operational efficiency, this chapter investigates the influences of price setting and customers’ return probability on inventory forecasting. Subsequently, we explore how retailers participate in providing appropriate information delivery and product fulfillment. Specifically, a stylized newsvendor model, which incorporates customers’ showrooming behavior, is developed to address retailers’ inventory problem. Furthermore, we compare the benefits of buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store (BOPS) and showroom strategy which originates offline but is completed online. Three main findings are obtained as follows: (1)online and offline inventory order quantities augment with the ascending of pricing offline and online, respectively. Meanwhile, the inventory decisions increase when customers’ return probability declines; (2) the implementation of showroom helps retailers expand their pure online market coverage than BOPS, while it reduces the total inventory quantity if the proposition of unit online inventory cost accounting for product price exceeds physical store; and (3) showroom strategy is more profitable than BOPS option as long as unit online inventory cost is small enough. In addition, we find this boundary where showroom increases total profit expands with the attenuating of return probability.","PeriodicalId":190722,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128428186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Regression Modeling of the Peer Group of Verizon Corporation for the CEO of Verizon Verizon公司CEO的同行群体回归模型

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013012

D. R. Pai, K. Lawrence, Sheila M. Lawrence

引用次数: 0

Agent-based Queuing Model for Call Center Forecasting and Management Optimization 基于agent的呼叫中心预测与管理优化排队模型

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013014

G. Niu, Jeyaraj Vadiveloo, Mengyue Xu

引用次数: 0

Detecting Non-injured Passengers and Drivers in Car Accidents: A New Under-resampling Method for Imbalanced Classification 交通事故中未受伤乘客和驾驶员的检测:一种新的欠重采样不平衡分类方法

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.1108/S1477-407020190000013011

Son Nguyen, G. Niu, John T. Quinn, A. Olinsky, J. Ormsbee, Richard M. Smith, James Bishop

引用次数: 1