Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-31DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3816170
H. Rad, Rand Kwong Yew Low, J. Miffre, R. Faff
{"title":"The Commodity Risk Premium and Neural Networks","authors":"H. Rad, Rand Kwong Yew Low, J. Miffre, R. Faff","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3816170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3816170","url":null,"abstract":"The paper uses linear and nonlinear predictive models to study the linkage between a set of 128 macroeconomic and financial predictors and subsequent commodity futures returns. The linear models use shrinkage methods based on naive averaging and principal components. The nonlinear models use feedforward deep neural networks either as stand-alone (DNN) or in conjunction with LSTM, a recurrent long short-term memory network. Out of the four specifications considered, the LSTM-DNN architecture is the most successful at transforming the 128 predictive variables into profitable investment strategies. The risk premium then modelled is unrelated to, and exceeds, those earned on previously-published characteristic-sorted portfolios. Our analysis is robust to the presence of transaction costs and illiquidity.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89826542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-31DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3869703
H. Ren, Sarah Siwinski, C. Yu, Andrew Ang
{"title":"Public Pension Portfolios in a World of Low Rates and Low Risk Premiums","authors":"H. Ren, Sarah Siwinski, C. Yu, Andrew Ang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3869703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3869703","url":null,"abstract":"Over the 2010s, the assets of public pension plans generated significantly higher returns than their assumed, or actuarial, rates of return. In a sample of 69 US public plans with a total of $2.1 trillion of assets, the return outperformance of assets over the assumed returns was over 200 basis points for the 10 years ending June 30, 2009. The outperformance is driven by their asset allocations being mostly exposed to economic growth, which constitutes nearly 75% of the total portfolio variance. Based on capital markets assumptions with lower returns to growth-sensitive assets, pension plans are less likely to outperform their assumed returns and may also experience significant downturns in scenarios when growth slows. In addition, the forecasted returns for fixed income over the next 10 years are expected to be significantly lower than the historical experience over the last few decades due to much lower starting yields. Optimal pension allocations more likely to meet current return targets generally involve increasing allocations to alternatives and using leverage—explicitly or through portable alpha strategies.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83064004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-28DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3829960
M. C. Faria
{"title":"An Examination of Target Date Fund Glidepath Construction","authors":"M. C. Faria","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3829960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3829960","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines Target Date Fund glidepath construction as well as asset allocation strategies. We consider characteristics, features, and assumptions in solving the multi-period portfolio selection problem. This paper discusses the theoretical underpinnings of deterministic, adaptive, and stochastic models as well as some interesting alternative strategies. Furthermore, we also propose research topics for future consideration that the author believes may improve upon the existent model frameworks.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89248506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-23DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3825823
A. Damodaran
{"title":"Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation, and Implications – The 2021 Edition","authors":"A. Damodaran","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3825823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3825823","url":null,"abstract":"The equity risk premium is the price of risk in equity markets, and it is not just a key input in estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation, but it is also a key metric in assessing the overall market. Given its importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating the equity risk premium, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds, over a long period, comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums – the survey approach, where investors and managers are asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. In the next section, we look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generate expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right” number to use in analysis.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76822806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-22DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3810495
Daniel Homocianu, A. Plopeanu
{"title":"Finding the Patterns of IRA Investment Decision Among Europeans Aged 50+ with Formal Education and Primary Residence Before the Fall of Communism. Evidence from SHARE-ERIC (Wave 7)","authors":"Daniel Homocianu, A. Plopeanu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3810495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3810495","url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with the analysis of determinants of the decision of investing in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA) among Europeans aged 50 and over, starting from the SHARE-ERIC data set (Wave 7), filtered on dominant residences and full-time education before the fall of the Iron Curtain in Europe. Using more than 33.000 records, it validates the assumption that schooling and living place in former communist countries count for such financial behavior. Further, it brings two particular models with good accuracy of classification starting from the latter criterion. We applied many methods and techniques based on data mining and variable selection tools, probit and binary logistic regression analysis with average marginal effects, automatic cross-validations, mixed-effects modeling with random effects on countries, and prediction nomograms. We found that some influences from the same financial category as the dependent variable, such as having life insurance or ever investing in mutual funds or stocks count the most when dealing with investing in IRA. More, the younger respondents, those with computer skills required by their jobs, and those who have gone through at least a period of high stress were more likely to invest using such an instrument, no matter their residence and education. Besides, more educated people, those who suffered in their past by some form of discrimination, the relaxed, happier, more independent, and more interpersonal confident individuals were more prone to choose to invest this way. Moreover, this paper also confirms some country-level influences related to stock market capitalization to GDP ratio and Worldwide Governance Indicators.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89168914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-17DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3806507
G. Lechner
{"title":"Does the Shiller CAPE Predict a Crash of the S&P 500?","authors":"G. Lechner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3806507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3806507","url":null,"abstract":"Stock markets have rebounded to record highs after the March 2020 crash. First, the Nasdaq hit a high, followed by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. This paper deals with the question of the valuation of the S&P 500. For this purpose the CAPE Shiller and thus, a forecast for the next 1 to 2 years is to be derived from the current assessment. The current level of the CAPE of the S&P 500 indicates a worrying overvaluation of the index. However, if you look at the US Fed's expansionary monetary policy over the past 20 years, the overvaluation should not be overstated. The author expects the historical peak (December 1999) of CAPE S&P 500 to be surpassed in 2022. After that, the risk of a crash increases significantly.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80068439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-14DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3455400
Nathan Lassance, F. Vrins
{"title":"Portfolio selection with parsimonious higher comoments estimation","authors":"Nathan Lassance, F. Vrins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3455400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3455400","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Large investment universes are usually fatal to portfolio strategies optimizing higher moments because of computational and estimation issues resulting from the number of parameters involved. In this paper, we introduce a parsimonious method to estimate higher moments that consists of projecting asset returns onto a small set of maximally independent factors found via independent component analysis (ICA). In contrast to principal component analysis (PCA), we show that ICA resolves the curse of dimensionality affecting the comoment tensors of asset returns. The method is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and makes portfolio strategies optimizing higher moments appealing in large investment universes. Considering the value-at-risk as a risk measure, an investment universe of up to 500 stocks and adjusting for transaction costs, we show that our ICA approach leads to superior out-of-sample risk-adjusted performance compared with PCA, equally weighted, and minimum-variance portfolios.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77345195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-13DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3803917
Tanja Artiga González, T. Dyakov, Justus Inhoffen, Evert Wipplinger
{"title":"Crowding of International Mutual Funds","authors":"Tanja Artiga González, T. Dyakov, Justus Inhoffen, Evert Wipplinger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3803917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3803917","url":null,"abstract":"We study the relationship between crowding and performance in the active mutual fund industry. We construct a fund-specific measure of crowding using the equity holdings overlap of 17,364 global funds. Funds in the top decile of crowding underperform passive benchmark funds by 1.4% per year. The impact of crowding on performance cannot be attributed to diseconomies of scale. We explore several mechanisms: a preference for liquid stocks, externalities of peer fund flows, and a coordination problem. We find strongest support for a preference for liquid stocks. Our findings reveal that the tendency of managers to follow correlated strategies is a major concern for fund investors.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84305495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-09DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3801092
Shahebaz S. Khan, Meer Mazhar Ali, Mohammed Abdul Imran Khan
{"title":"Investors Preference for Mutual Fund Investment in Oman","authors":"Shahebaz S. Khan, Meer Mazhar Ali, Mohammed Abdul Imran Khan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3801092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3801092","url":null,"abstract":"The research study was based on primary as well as secondary data, however primary data collected was given more importance since it is an overhearing factor in attitude studies. One of the most important users of research methodology is that it helps in identifying the problem, collecting, analyzing the required information data and providing an alternative solution to the problem. It also helps in collecting the vital information that is required by the top management to assist them for better decision making both days to day decision and critical ones. This study has attempted to understand the financial behavior of Mutual Fund investors in connection with the preferences of Brand (AMC), Products, and Channels etc. Many people do not have invested in mutual fund due to a lack of awareness although they have money to invest. As the awareness and income are growing the number of mutual funds investors are also growing. “Brand” plays an important role in investment. People invest in those companies where they have faith or they are well known for them. There are many AMCs in Salalah, Oman but only some are performing well due to Brand awareness. Distribution channels are also important for investment in a mutual fund. Banks are the most preferred channel for investment in a mutual fund. They can change investors’ mind from one investment option to others. Many investors directly invest their money through AMC.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81733873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mutual FundsPub Date : 2021-03-09DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3800872
D. Baur, T. Dimpfl, Konstantin Kuck
{"title":"Safe Haven Assets - The Bigger Picture","authors":"D. Baur, T. Dimpfl, Konstantin Kuck","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3800872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3800872","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new approach to identify safe haven assets and to characterize their relationship with the market. We use quantile regression to analyze the returns of potential safe haven assets conditional on all market conditions including periods of financial turmoil. We find a trade-off, i.e., stronger in-crisis performance of safe haven assets is associated with weaker out-crisis performance and vice versa for risky assets. Our analysis confirms the safe haven properties of gold and U.S. government bonds and presents clear differences between safe haven assets and safe assets, and between safe haven assets and risky assets such as Bitcoin.","PeriodicalId":18891,"journal":{"name":"Mutual Funds","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74652796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}