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Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates 货币政策与长期利率
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.4324/9780429270949-76
Y. P. Mehra
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates","authors":"Y. P. Mehra","doi":"10.4324/9780429270949-76","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429270949-76","url":null,"abstract":"Empirically, monetary policy affects bond rate components differently in the short run and the long. In the long run, it influences the bond rate mainly by altering the trend rate of inflation. In the short run, however, policy has significant effects on the real component of the bond rate. This effect has been especially pronounced since 1979. The bond rate rises anywhere from 26 to 50 basis points whenever the funds rate spread widens by one percentage point.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132345997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 26
Wealth Effects with Endogenous Retirement 内生退休的财富效应
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.21144/eq1050302
Borys Grochulski, Yuzhe Zhang
{"title":"Wealth Effects with Endogenous Retirement","authors":"Borys Grochulski, Yuzhe Zhang","doi":"10.21144/eq1050302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1050302","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we study wealth effects, i.e., the response of consumption to exogenous changes in wealth. We use a consumption-saving model with endogenous retirement to show that the endogenous response of the value of a worker's human capital to changes in her wealth helps to account for the weak wealth effects observed in the data.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114795522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Likely is the Zero Lower Bound? 下限为零的可能性有多大?
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2019-03-06 DOI: 10.21144/EQ1050102
T. Lubik, C. Matthes
{"title":"How Likely is the Zero Lower Bound?","authors":"T. Lubik, C. Matthes","doi":"10.21144/EQ1050102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/EQ1050102","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for historic episodes suggest that the TVP-VAR captures the underlying dynamics well and that it would have put substantial likelihood on the interest rate being at the zero lower bound during 2009-14.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114225870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Idiosyncratic Sectoral Growth, Balanced Growth, and Sectoral Linkages 特殊部门增长、平衡增长和部门联系
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2018-10-17 DOI: 10.21144/EQ1040202
Andrew T. Foerster, E. LaRose, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
{"title":"Idiosyncratic Sectoral Growth, Balanced Growth, and Sectoral Linkages","authors":"Andrew T. Foerster, E. LaRose, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte","doi":"10.21144/EQ1040202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/EQ1040202","url":null,"abstract":"We study the growth properties of an economy where different sectors are linked by way of intermediates and potentially grow at different rates. We characterize the economy's equilibrium balanced growth path, and derive an analytical expression that summarizes how TFP growth in a given sector affects value added growth in every other sector and, therefore, aggregate GDP growth. We show in a special case that a version of Hulten's (1978) theorem, whereby the effects of changes in sector-specific productivity on GDP are entirely captured by that sector's share in GDP, also holds in growth rates along a balanced growth path. In that case, changes in TFP growth specific to that sector do not directly affect value added in other sectors regardless of its linkages in the economy. In the more general case, changes in sectors that are more capital intensive, and central as intermediate goods suppliers, have larger effects on value added growth in other sectors and aggregate GDP. In a calibrated version of our benchmark case, we find substantive quantitative differences in the effects of sectoral TFP growth changes on GDP relative to the case where these effects are given by sectoral value added shares only.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"252 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115996227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Self-Insurance and the Risk-Sharing Role of Money 自我保险与货币的风险分担作用
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2018-08-16 DOI: 10.21144/eq1040102
Russell Wong
{"title":"Self-Insurance and the Risk-Sharing Role of Money","authors":"Russell Wong","doi":"10.21144/eq1040102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1040102","url":null,"abstract":"Overcoming the lack of coincidence of wants is a well-acknowledged role of money. In this review, I illustrate that the use of money also promotes risk-sharing in the society: when individuals hold money, it helps other individuals mitigate their own liquidity risks.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123016368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cyclical Properties of Bank Margins: Small Versus Large Banks 银行利润率的周期性特征:小型银行与大型银行的对比
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2018-08-16 DOI: 10.21144/eq1040101
Borys Grochulski, D. Schwam, Yuzhe Zhang
{"title":"Cyclical Properties of Bank Margins: Small Versus Large Banks","authors":"Borys Grochulski, D. Schwam, Yuzhe Zhang","doi":"10.21144/eq1040101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1040101","url":null,"abstract":"We study cyclical properties of the net interest margin (NIM) in the US banking sector in the aggregate as well as separately for small and large banks. In the aggregate and among large banks, NIM is countercyclical. Among small banks, however, NIM is procyclical. Further, we find that this result is driven by differences in the cyclical dynamics of small and large banks' funding costs rather than asset yields.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126476585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Rise and Fall of the Quantity Theory in Nineteenth Century Britain: Implications for Early Fed Thinking 19世纪英国数量理论的兴衰:对早期美联储思想的启示
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2018-02-08 DOI: 10.21144/eq1020402
R. Hetzel
{"title":"The Rise and Fall of the Quantity Theory in Nineteenth Century Britain: Implications for Early Fed Thinking","authors":"R. Hetzel","doi":"10.21144/eq1020402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1020402","url":null,"abstract":"British monetary experience in the nineteenth century was extremely rich both in terms of the development of the quantity theory and in terms of the evolution of views of the role of the Bank of England in the international gold standard. One can ask, should or could the early Federal Reserve have learned from this experience? Especially during the Depression, why didn't the Federal Reserve understand its responsibility for the monetary contraction, deflation, and economic collapse it produced? Why didn't knowledge of the quantity theory, which developed in early nineteenth century Britain, prevent such a catastrophic mistake? A short answer is that the quantity theory, which flourished in the first part of the nineteenth century, disappeared as the gold standard became orthodoxy and the counterfactual of a paper money standard became heresy. There was then very little to guide the early Fed when it created a monetary standard that in reality was a paper money standard.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122837759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Private Efforts for Affordable Mortgage Lending Before Fannie and Freddie 在房利美和房地美之前，私人为负担得起的抵押贷款所做的努力
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2018-02-08 DOI: 10.21144/EQ1020403
D. Price, J. R. Walter
{"title":"Private Efforts for Affordable Mortgage Lending Before Fannie and Freddie","authors":"D. Price, J. R. Walter","doi":"10.21144/EQ1020403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/EQ1020403","url":null,"abstract":"Prior to government interventions in the U.S. mortgage market during the 1930s, private institutions arose to improve the efficiency of the market and produce more affordable mortgage products. These institutions included mortgage companies that made significant use of mortgage securitization, building and loan associations, and life insurance company mortgage operations. These developments allowed for the creation of geographically more diversified mortgage portfolios while working to address the difficulties of maintaining effective oversight of local lending agents. They may be suggestive of types of private arrangements that could develop if government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were to become a less significant part of the modern mortgage landscape.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127319299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort 基于变量搜索的匹配效率估计
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.24148/WP2016-24
Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak
{"title":"Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort","authors":"Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak","doi":"10.24148/WP2016-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/WP2016-24","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a simple representation of endogenous search effort into the standard matching function with job-seeker heterogeneity. Using the estimated augmented matching function, we study the sources of changes in the average employment transition rate. In the standard matching function, the contribution of market tightness (matching efficiency) is increasing (decreasing) in the matching function elasticity. For our augmented matching function, search effort is procyclical for small matching elasticity and accounts for most of the transition rate volatility, with small contributions from market tightness and matching efficiency. For a large matching elasticity search effort is strongly countercyclical and large movements in matching efficiency compensate for that. Regardless of the matching elasticity, we find a substantial decline of the matching efficiency after 2007","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133593036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and its Aftermath 我们对2007-09年经济衰退及其后果期间工资调整的了解
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications Pub Date : 2016-04-18 DOI: 10.21144/eq1010302
Marianna Kudlyak
{"title":"What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and its Aftermath","authors":"Marianna Kudlyak","doi":"10.21144/eq1010302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1010302","url":null,"abstract":"Aggregate wage growth has remained flat during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath while unemployment has exhibited substantial swings. Does the low real aggregate wage growth during the recovery indicate a weak labor market beyond what is measured by the official unemployment rate? Aggregate wage growth reflects actual changes of workers' wages, changes in the composition of workers, and changes in the composition of jobs. Some of these changes are related to underlying structural trends in the economy while others constitute the economy's response to the business cycle shocks and are more indicative of cyclical resource utilization in the labor market. Consequently, it is important to look beyond the aggregate statistics to understand the behavior of real wages and its relation to the health of the labor market. In this article, we review recent literature that studies the changes in the components of the aggregate wage over time and, specifically, after the 2007-09 recession.","PeriodicalId":186638,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Publications","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131770501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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