Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang最新文献

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT TOURISM SECTOR AND OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BALI PROVINCE 旅游业和开放失业对巴厘岛经济增长的影响分析

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.34-44

Layla Fickri Amalia, Putu Gita Suari Miranti

{"title":"ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT TOURISM SECTOR AND OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BALI PROVINCE","authors":"Layla Fickri Amalia, Putu Gita Suari Miranti","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.34-44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.34-44","url":null,"abstract":"Bali is one of the most popular tourist destinations by domestic and foreign tourists in Indonesia. Because many tourists visit, many Balinese people are looking for a livelihood in the tourism sector such as being a tour guide, working in the hospitality sector, culinary, tourist trips etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many workers in the tourism sector lost their jobs, increasing the open unemployment rate in Bali Province. With a high unemployment rate, people's welfare decreases so that it can affect economic growth in Bali Province. This study aims to see the Effect of the Tourism Sector and Open Unemployment on Economic Growth in Bali Province. The variables of the independent of this study are the number of tourists visiting, the number of hotel, the number of travel agencies and the open unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the dependent variable used is the economic growth of Bali province. The analysis tool used is Panel Data Regression, from the test obtained the value of the coefficient of determination R2 of 65.80%, this shows the magnitude of the influence of independent variables on dependent variables. The results of the study concluded that simultaneously the number of tourists, the number of restaurants, the number of tourist travel agencies, and the unemployment rate influenced economic growth. This is seen from the prob value of F-statistics of 0.0000. Meanwhile, the results of the t test show that the results are influential and significant for each independent variable against the dependent variable.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123845926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

FOURIER SERIES APPLICATION FOR MODELING “CHOCOLATE” KEYWORD SEARCH TRENDS IN GOOGLE TRENDS DATA 应用傅立叶级数对“巧克力”关键字在Google趋势数据中的搜索趋势进行建模

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.1-9

A. Dani, Fachrian Bimantoro Putra, Muhammad Aldani Zen, V. Ratnasari, Qonita Qurrota A’yun

引用次数: 0

MODELING COUNT DATA WITH OVER-DISPERSION USING GENERALIZED POISSON REGRESSION: A CASE STUDY OF LOW BIRTH WEIGHT IN INDONESIA 用广义泊松回归对过度分散的计数数据建模:以印度尼西亚低出生体重为例

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.45-60

M. Fathurahman

{"title":"MODELING COUNT DATA WITH OVER-DISPERSION USING GENERALIZED POISSON REGRESSION: A CASE STUDY OF LOW BIRTH WEIGHT IN INDONESIA","authors":"M. Fathurahman","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.45-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.45-60","url":null,"abstract":"Poisson regression is commonly used in modeling count data in various research fields. An essential assumption must be met when using Poisson regression, which is that the count data of the response has the mean and variance must be equal, namely equi-dispersion. This assumption is often unmet because many data for the response that the variance is greater than the mean, called over-dispersion. If the Poisson regression model contains the over-dispersion, then will be produced an invalid model can under-estimate standard errors and misleading inference for regression parameters. Therefore, an approach is needed to overcome the over-dispersion problem in Poisson regression. The generalized Poisson regression can handle the over-dispersion in Poisson regression. This study aims to obtain the generalized Poisson regression model and the factors affecting the low birth weight in Indonesia in 2021. The result shows that the factors affecting the low birth weight in Indonesia based on the generalized Poisson regression model were: poverty rate, percentage of households with access to appropriate sanitation, percentage of pregnant women at risk of chronic energy deficiency receiving additional food, percentage of pregnant women who received blood-boosting tablets, and percentage of antenatal care.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114411900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF PASSENGER AT JENDERAL AHMAD YANI SEMARANG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT USING HYBRID SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS-NEURAL NETWORK (SSA-NN) METHOD 利用奇异频谱分析-神经网络(ssa-nn)混合方法预测三宝垄国际机场客运量

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.22-33

Tresiani Yunitasari, M. A. Haris, Prizka Rismawati Arum

{"title":"FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF PASSENGER AT JENDERAL AHMAD YANI SEMARANG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT USING HYBRID SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS-NEURAL NETWORK (SSA-NN) METHOD","authors":"Tresiani Yunitasari, M. A. Haris, Prizka Rismawati Arum","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.22-33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.22-33","url":null,"abstract":"Transportation was an important sector of supporting the economic growth of a country. The impact of the Covid-19 2020 pandemic at Achmad Yani International Airport in Semarang resulted in the movement of the number of passengers decreasing quite drastically, but in mid-2020 the movement of the number of passengers had slowly increased. Forecasting was done to determine the flow of movement of the number of passengers in the future using the Hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-Neural Network (NN) method. The SSA method was expected to be able to decompose various patterns in the data into trend, seasonality and noise. Furthermore, the NN method was used to analyze nonlinear patterns in the data. The results showed that the best method was a combination of the SSA method with a window length of 40 and the NN method with a 6-8-1 network architecture (6 input neurons, 8 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron) for the trend component, 11-15-1 (11 neurons input, 15 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron) for the seasonal component, and 10-15-1 (10 input neurons, 15 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron) for the noise component. The model produces a prediction error based on a MAPE value of 0.54% or an accuracy rate of 99.46%.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125452391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

AUXILIARY INFORMATION BASED GENERALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE FOR PROCESS MEAN 基于辅助信息的一般加权移动平均的过程均值

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.10-21

Istin Fitriana Aziza, Wirajaya Kusuma, Siti Soraya

{"title":"AUXILIARY INFORMATION BASED GENERALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE FOR PROCESS MEAN","authors":"Istin Fitriana Aziza, Wirajaya Kusuma, Siti Soraya","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.10-21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.11.1.2023.10-21","url":null,"abstract":"The univariate mean process monitoring is only used the information from the study variable. One of the univariate control chart that used to monitor the mean process is GWMA control chart. But, in this research, we need to monitor process mean using the information from the study variable and information on the adding or auxiliary variable. The enhanced control chart in this research named AIB-GWMA control chart. In this research, we also made a comparison between the GWMA and AIB-GWMA to know the sensitivity and effectiveness of these control chart. The comparison is used to know the effect of the auxiliary variable in process monitoring. The performance of these control chart is evaluated using Average Run Length with help of Monte Carlo simulation. The result of this study is AIB-GWMA has a smaller ARL than the GWMA control chart. It showed that AIB-GWMA is faster to detect a shift in mean process. In further study, we recommended to enhance the performance of the AIB-GWMA by extending the current work to the AIB-MaxGWMA, so it is possible to monitor process mean and variance simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122486890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON INVESTMENT VALUE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX USING AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH 基于投资价值和人类发展指数的印尼经济增长计量分析

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.43-53

E. Setyowati

引用次数: 0

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ON INDONESIA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE 2005-2021 2005-2021年进出口对印尼外汇储备影响的多元线性回归分析

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.1-12

R. Permatasari, K. Anam, Nuari Anisa Sivi, I. Iskandar

{"title":"MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ON INDONESIA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE 2005-2021","authors":"R. Permatasari, K. Anam, Nuari Anisa Sivi, I. Iskandar","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.1-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.1-12","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign exchange reserves can be an important indicator to see how far a country can carry out international trade and to show the strength of a country's economic fundamentals. The size of the foreign exchange reserves is influenced by several factors, one of which is export and import activities. This study aims to identify the effect of exports and imports on the position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The data used are secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia. The object used in this study is Indonesia with Time Series, which is 17 years from 2005 to 2021. This study uses a quantitative approach with the Multiple Linear Regression Analysis method using software the IBM-SPSS Version 25.0. Based on the results of the regression, it is known that the value of exports has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, this is indicated by the value of sig 0.000 < 0.050. Meanwhile, imports have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, this is indicated by the value of Sig 0.567. sig value 0.567 > 0.050. Export and Import variables together on Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves. This can be seen from the results of the analysis of the significance value (Sig.) 0.00 < 0.050.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115056954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

PREDICTION OF RAINFALL IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE BASED ON THE FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR 基于傅里叶级数估计量的雅加达省降水预测

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.34-42

Zidni Ilmatun Nurrohmah, Diana Ulya, Qumadha Zainal Abidin, Syifaun Nadhiro, N. Chamidah

引用次数: 0

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF TOBIT QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH ADAPTIVE LASSO PENALTY IN HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE FOR CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION 家庭卷烟消费支出的自适应套索惩罚tobit分位数回归的贝叶斯分析

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.25-33

F. Rahmawati, S. Subanar

引用次数: 0

FORECASTING OF INDONESIA'S POST-COVID-19 EXPORT VALUE USING SARIMA 基于sarima的印尼疫情后出口价值预测

Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.13-24

Uqwatul Alma Wizsa, Wikasanti Dwi Rahayu, Septria Susanti

{"title":"FORECASTING OF INDONESIA'S POST-COVID-19 EXPORT VALUE USING SARIMA","authors":"Uqwatul Alma Wizsa, Wikasanti Dwi Rahayu, Septria Susanti","doi":"10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.13-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.13-24","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic that entered Indonesia in early 2020 has more or less had an impact on Indonesia's economic growth. One of the important factors that are indicators of the ups and downs of the economy, especially in Indonesia, is export activities. The Covid-19 pandemic has had quite an impact on the total value of Indonesia's exports, especially from 2020 to 2021. The fluctuation in the export value has made researchers interested in forecasting the total export value, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic. Forecasting of the total value of exports can certainly be used as a reference for the government to determine the direction of policies toward export activities to increase Indonesia's economic growth. Export values usually have seasonal patterns. One of the time series analyses that can be applied to data on total export values is the SARIMA model. Especially after Covid-19, no related studies have been found that use the SARIMA model in predicting the total value of exports in Indonesia. Using reference data on the total export value of Indonesia from January 2019 to March 2022, the best model was obtained and met the assumptions of residual normality and residual freedom, namely the ARIMA model (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 without an intercept with an AICc value of 675.5562. Forecasting the total export value from April 2022 to March 2023 using this model indicates that the export value will increase slowly but decrease in September 2022 and January 2023.","PeriodicalId":183562,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang","volume":"2195 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130116323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0