{"title":"Al-Shabaab as a Transnational Security Threat","authors":"Sahan Africa","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0036","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter considers the threat posed by Al-Shabaab both in Somalia and to the Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab is a composite insurgency, which has exploited local grievances by aligning itself with disaffected clans or minority groups. In 2016, it stepped up efforts to co-opt clan leaders through coercion and incentives, even establishing a new Council of Clan Leaders. Since 2010, Al-Shabaab has sought to establish itself in the Horn of Africa, initiating insurgent activities in six countries of the region and conducting attacks in five of them. In 2013, Al-Shabaab established two transnational military wings: one focusing on Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda; the other on Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab's regional unit, Jaysh Ayman, has carried out a campaign of attacks in northern Kenya, while its affiliate Al-Hijra is said to have established a range of networks and operational cells, including in Kenya's prisons.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130709013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Negotiations with Al-Shabaab","authors":"Harmonie Toros, S. Harley","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0039","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines the potential for talks with Al-Shabaab, identifies potential facilitators and spoilers, and highlights lessons to be learned from past dialogues with Al-Shabaab. Three main conclusions are reached. First, many Somali and international parties agree that there exists some degree of common ground between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Al-Shabaab. Second, while Somali elders, business leaders, and Muslim-majority countries have been identified as potential facilitators or initiators of a dialogue with Al-Shabaab, such talks require at least non-opposition from key factions in the FGS and Al-Shabaab and more broadly from powerful regional powers who have rejected past agreements. Third, FGS and international actors need to decide whether they want to maintain their focus on facilitating and promoting defections from Al-Shabaab or explore the possibility of comprehensive talks with Al-Shabaab aimed at bringing in the entire armed group.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115509140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Challenges and Opportunities","authors":"Abdur Rashid Siddiqui","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0019","url":null,"abstract":"Somalia and Somaliland had parallel colonial experiences under Italian and British rule, respectively. In 1960, both gained independence and entered into a union. However, in 1969, the civilian government of the Somali Republic in Mogadishu was overthrown in a coup organized by the military, precipitating a brutal civil war. With the collapse of the military government in Mogadishu in 1991, Somaliland declared its independence from the Somali Republic. Since then, the two sides followed quite different trajectories. This chapter takes a detailed look at the recent history of dialogue between the two parties and offers recommendations on how best to establish an effective process. It suggests that the political stalemate will be resolved by the agreement of some form of mutually acceptable political association or official recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123969467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploitation of Natural Resources as a Driver of Conflict","authors":"Mohamed A. Omer, M. Hersi","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0010","url":null,"abstract":"Local conflicts in Somalia have many sources, and the extraction of natural resources carries a risk of igniting new conflict or exacerbating old feuds. This chapter considers the case of a mining concession granted by authorities to a Chinese company for the extraction of beryllium at a site in the Awdal region of Somaliland. This has generated strong objections from communities that believe they will be deprived of the economic and employment benefits of the mine; pastoralists who have concerns about the mine's ecological impact; artisan miners who fear they may be put out of work; and local government, which feels it has been cut out of the arrangement. The concession has also catalysed inter-clan conflict about the potential beneficiaries. The case underscores the need for clear thinking about laws and policies relating to resource exploitation, in order to maximize the potential benefits for communities and minimize the likelihood of conflict.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129311327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Neither Inevitable nor Accidental","authors":"The United Nations Accountability Project—Somalia","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"The lack of inclusion in Somali society has a profound effect on the vulnerability of certain groups. According to the UN Somalia Accountability Project, certain groups, especially the Rahanweyn clan and Bantu Somalis, were severely, and disproportionately, affected by the droughts of 1991–1992 and 2011–2012. It is highly likely that they have also borne the brunt of the 2016–2017 drought. This chapter argues for the importance of understanding the political economy of protection and its failures. It calls for humanitarian, recovery, and stabilization activities to take proper account of forces that marginalize certain groups and action to avoid exacerbating such vulnerabilities. The complexities of grievances in Somalia mean that exclusion must be addressed if genuine peace and reconciliation are to be achieved.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132389698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local Reconciliation in Somalia","authors":"Abukar Sanei, M. A. Omar","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"The last Somali central government was overthrown in 1991 due to grievances among those who felt they were marginalized from the decision-making process. The same grievances have driven the civil war that started in 1991 and continues to this day. To bring stability to Somalia, genuine reconciliation at the local level is vital. This chapter addresses the mechanisms and prospects for local reconciliation. To identify mechanisms for reconciliation it carried out a survey of 114 people, and conducted three in-depth interviews with current and former officials. To resolve grievances, 59 per cent of survey respondents stated that viable options are: creating a format for power sharing, integrating the security forces, using the media to promote peace, and including women and youth in the reconciliation process; 44 per cent of respondents also supported the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and ending impunity by establishing an effective system of local justice.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122447941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Community Perspectives Towards Al-Shabaab","authors":"J. Crouch, Abdisaid M. Ali","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780190947910.003.0040","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter discusses the results of key interviews with Somalis regarding their perceptions about Al-Shabaab. Respondents expressed concerns about Al-Shabaab's indiscriminate and excessive use of violence, which are considered inconsistent with Islam, and its restrictions on freedom of speech and movement. However, they spoke positively about Al-Shabaab's strict enforcement of rules and their impartial resolution of disputes. They also compared Al-Shabaab favourably to the government in terms of reducing clan influence over politics or the allocation of resources, and in terms of minimizing corruption in ‘tax’ collection, but noted the group's failure to provide social services. Three-quarters of respondents expressed support for a negotiated solution to the conflict, but doubted Al-Shabaab would be willing to engage.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121237587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Fighter Influence in Al-Shabaab","authors":"Tricia Bacon, Daisy Muibu","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0037","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines foreign fighter influence in Al-Shabaab. The role and influence of foreign fighters in Al-Shabaab have varied over time. In the early years, there were numerous reports highlighting the importance of foreign fighters; however, in recent years, their influence has been limited. Regional recruits mostly come from Kenya, followed by Tanzania and Uganda. These fighters generally occupy rank and file military roles, and increase the group's ability to operate and recruit in the region. The number of foreign fighters joining Al-Shabaab from outside the region has diminished since the group purged such fighters between 2011 and 2013, and the emergence of the Islamic State and other extremist groups in Iraq and Syria. Looking ahead, foreign fighter influence within the group is likely to remain limited given that many of its activities are acutely local and its strength often depends on managing and exploiting clan conflict.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"201 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116626451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Sharia Courts of Mogadishu","authors":"A. Ibrahim","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0012","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter considers whether there are lessons to be learned from the experience of the Sharia courts of Mogadishu that are relevant to peace and reconciliation in Somalia. These courts emerged in 1992 in response to the collapse of the state. It argues the Sharia courts succeeded where others failed because they simultaneously built on known cultural and religious norms, authorities, and practices, while at the same time pragmatically responding to the demands of the moment. Two of the most important lessons from the experience of the courts are: (a) justice in Somalia is inseparable from practices and discourses associated with the Sharia; and (b) it is hard to establish legitimate political authority if the political space and political leaders are viewed by local people to contradict and counteract the norms of the Sharia.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122703086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of Success","authors":"Galymzhan Kirbassov","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190947910.003.0013","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter analyzes the factors that determine the success of peace initiatives in Somalia. First, the intensity of conflict before the peace agreement is signed negatively affects the duration of peace. The higher the rate of fatalities during a conflict, the higher the likelihood that the peace agreement that followed it will fail. Second, military capabilities of the disputing clans determine if the peace agreement will succeed in sustaining. Imbalance of military capability reduces the likely duration of peace because the stronger clan may have incentives to renege on the peace accord. Third, third-party enforcement of peace accords by a credible and capable actor is a crucial element of sustainable peace. The enforcer monitors the implementation of the peace agreement and can credibly threaten to punish non-compliance.","PeriodicalId":182433,"journal":{"name":"War and Peace in Somalia","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127793401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：