Determinants of Success

This chapter analyzes the factors that determine the success of peace initiatives in Somalia. First, the intensity of conflict before the peace agreement is signed negatively affects the duration of peace. The higher the rate of fatalities during a conflict, the higher the likelihood that the peace agreement that followed it will fail. Second, military capabilities of the disputing clans determine if the peace agreement will succeed in sustaining. Imbalance of military capability reduces the likely duration of peace because the stronger clan may have incentives to renege on the peace accord. Third, third-party enforcement of peace accords by a credible and capable actor is a crucial element of sustainable peace. The enforcer monitors the implementation of the peace agreement and can credibly threaten to punish non-compliance.