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Macroeconomic Dynamics最新文献

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The plague, the skill-premium, and the road to modern economic growth 瘟疫、技能溢价和现代经济增长之路
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000573
Martin Kaae Jensen, Rui Luo
{"title":"The plague, the skill-premium, and the road to modern economic growth","authors":"Martin Kaae Jensen, Rui Luo","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000573","url":null,"abstract":"When bubonic plague arrived in Britain in the mid-14th century, it caused dramatic economic and structural change. Within 50 years, the skill-premium was reduced by half, and another 50 years on, agriculture’s share of the labor force had declined by more than 20 percentage points. This paper develops a two-sector pre-industrial growth model and draws on recent data sources covering Late Medieval and Early Modern Britain to explain these and the ensuing developments. Our main findings are that the skill-premium’s decline was related to the guild and apprenticeship system and that it and the other post-Plague adjustments were crucial determinants of the British trajectory toward industrialization. In particular, prior sectoral transformation and the skill-premium’s determination were important when the Early Modern population boom (1525–1654) threatened to reverse the adjustments caused by the Plague.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model 新凯恩斯主义模式中的非常规政策工具
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000561
Zineddine Alla, Raphael A. Espinoza, Atish R. Ghosh
{"title":"Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model","authors":"Zineddine Alla, Raphael A. Espinoza, Atish R. Ghosh","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the “divine coincidence” breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument that, in addition to the effect of conventional interest rate policy, may enter the Phillips curve, the investment–saving (IS) curve, and the welfare function, thus influencing inflation and output. The paper presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker’s preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument reduces the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and may reduce the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing to not use the second instrument may be welfare-improving (a result akin to Rogoff (<span>Journal of International Economics</span> 18(3-4), 199–217, 1985) example of counterproductive coordination). We also show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument, and we analyze the optimal central banker’s preferences when social preferences would yield equilibrium indeterminacy.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139481322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Untimely destruction: pestilence, war, and accumulation in the long run 不合时宜的毁灭：瘟疫、战争和长期积累
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000536
Clive Bell, Hans Gersbach, Evgenij Komarov
{"title":"Untimely destruction: pestilence, war, and accumulation in the long run","authors":"Clive Bell, Hans Gersbach, Evgenij Komarov","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000536","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the effects of disease and war on the accumulation of human and physical capital. We employ an overlapping generation framework in which young adults, motivated by old-age provision and possibly altruism, make decisions about investments in schooling and capital. A poverty trap exists for a wide range of constant war losses and premature adult mortality. If parents are altruistic and the sub-utility function for own consumption is more concave than that for their evaluation of their children’s full income in adulthood, the only possible steady-state growth path involves full education. Otherwise, steady-state paths with incompletely educated children may exist. When mortality and destruction rates are stochastic, the initial boundary conditions and agents’ beliefs have a strong influence on the paths generated by a sequence of shocks. Calibrating the model to Kenya, simulations for stochastic settings yield the finding that a trap exists and is always avoided, but the chances of a slow recovery are substantial.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139463978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy and housing market cycles 货币政策与住房市场周期
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000615
Shiu-Sheng Chen, Tzu-Yu Lin, Jen-Kuan Wang
{"title":"Monetary policy and housing market cycles","authors":"Shiu-Sheng Chen, Tzu-Yu Lin, Jen-Kuan Wang","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000615","url":null,"abstract":"Using monthly data from 1978:M1 to 2019:M9, this paper provides empirical evidence concerning the role that monetary policy plays in the US housing market. We first show that shocks to short-run interest rates have significant impacts on house prices and that these effects are persistent. Our findings also provide evidence supporting the claim that too-low-for-too-long interest rates are responsible for the 2002–2006 US housing boom. We further investigate the different channels through which an easing monetary policy fuels the house price boom and find that faster sales and lower inventory levels in the housing market most amplify the policy effects. Lastly, we provide compelling evidence of the asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary monetary policies on house prices.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139464113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Solving heterogeneous-belief asset pricing models with short-selling constraints and many agents 求解具有卖空约束和众多代理的异质信念资产定价模型
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000639
Michael Hatcher
{"title":"Solving heterogeneous-belief asset pricing models with short-selling constraints and many agents","authors":"Michael Hatcher","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000639","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Short-selling constraints are common in financial markets, while physical assets such as housing often lack markets for short-selling altogether. As a result, investment decisions are often restricted by such constraints. This paper studies asset prices in behavioral heterogeneous-belief models with short-selling constraints and arbitrarily many belief types. We provide conditions on beliefs such that short-selling constraints bind for different types, along with analytic expressions for price and demands that allow us to construct fast solution algorithms relevant for a wide range of models. An application studies how an alternative uptick rule, as in the United States, affects price dynamics and wealth distribution in a market with many belief types in <span>evolutionary competition</span>. In a numerical example, we highlight a scenario in which a modified version of the alternative uptick rule, triggered by smaller percentage falls in price, reduces both asset mispricing and wealth inequality relative to the current regulation. As extensions, we show how our method applies to multiple asset markets with short-selling constraints, additional heterogeneities, and price setting by a market maker.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"142 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139414298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The anatomy of government bond yields synchronization in the Eurozone 欧元区政府债券收益率同步化剖析
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000597
Claudio Barbieri, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano
{"title":"The anatomy of government bond yields synchronization in the Eurozone","authors":"Claudio Barbieri, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000597","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the synchronization of the Eurozone’s government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends on yield maturity. Short-term yields are not synchronized. Medium- and long-term yields, instead, were highly synchronized early after the introduction of the Euro. Synchronization then decreased significantly during the Great Recession and the European Debt Crisis, to partially recover after 2015. We interpret our empirical results using portfolio theory, and we point to divergence trades as a source of the self-sustained yield asynchronous dynamics. Our results envisage synchronization as a requirement for the smooth transmission of conventional monetary policy in the Eurozone.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139414357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal unemployment insurance with behavioral agents 有行为代理的最优失业保险
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000603
Hon Chung Yeung
{"title":"Optimal unemployment insurance with behavioral agents","authors":"Hon Chung Yeung","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000603","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies how behavioral biases affect the optimal unemployment insurance. I revisit the optimal UI of Landais et al. (2018) and show how the optimal UI formula is modified and leads to novel economic insights. The optimal UI replacement rate is the conventional Baily-Chetty replacement rate, which solves the trade-off between liquidity and job-search incentives, plus a market tightness correction term which shows how welfare is affected by UI through tightness, and plus a behavioral bias correction term, which shows how welfare is affected by UI through job search effort.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139077486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conspicuous leisure, time allocation, and obesity Kuznets curves 显性闲暇、时间分配和肥胖库兹涅茨曲线
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000585
Nathalie Mathieu-Bolh, Ronald Wendner
{"title":"Conspicuous leisure, time allocation, and obesity Kuznets curves","authors":"Nathalie Mathieu-Bolh, Ronald Wendner","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000585","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our growth model explores the complex relationship between income, obesity, and changes in exercise-related behavior. Combining Becker’s theory of time allocation (<span>The Economic Journal</span> 75(299), 493–517, 1965) with Veblen’s theory of conspicuous leisure (<span>The Theory of the Leisure Class</span>, 1st ed. New York: Macmillan, 1899), we determine conditions for dynamic and static obesity Kuznets curves. Considering food consumption and exercise choices, we show that dynamic and static Kuznets curves result from the rising opportunity cost of exercise and peer influence, both increasing with income. Focusing on calorie expenditure, we investigate the rise and slowdown in obesity prevalence in the USA and the correlation between obesity and income per worker. Our numerical simulations indicate that, as the economy grows, exercise choices slow down the rise in obesity prevalence but do not generate a dynamic Kuznets curve in the USA. By contrast, they generate a static Kuznets curve for a population cross section. We discuss policy implications of our findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139077665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
House prices and rents: a reappraisal 房价和租金:重新评估
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1017/s136510052300055x
Bertrand Achou, Hippolyte d’Albis, Eleni Iliopulos
{"title":"House prices and rents: a reappraisal","authors":"Bertrand Achou, Hippolyte d’Albis, Eleni Iliopulos","doi":"10.1017/s136510052300055x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052300055x","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we introduce rental markets in a general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints and infinitely lived agents. We estimate our model using standard Bayesian methods and match US data on recent decades. We highlight a crucial relationship that strongly links interest rates, house prices, and rents. It represents agents’ arbitrage when choosing their degree of participation in the housing market (i.e. their real estate holdings). This framework is particularly well suited for explaining how policy-induced changes in households’ preferences have driven house prices up while pushing rent-price ratios down in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak. It also allows us to parsimoniously track the unequal impact of these changes on agents’ decisions and welfare, which crucially depends on whether they are owners or renters.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138536208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the decline in the magnitude of the expenditure multiplier 关于支出乘数的下降幅度
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000482
Jesús Rodríguez-López, Mario Solis-Garcia
{"title":"On the decline in the magnitude of the expenditure multiplier","authors":"Jesús Rodríguez-López, Mario Solis-Garcia","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000482","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the causes underlying the decline in the government expenditure multiplier after the Korean War, through the lens of a structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods and annual frequency data from 1939 to 2017. The model replicates the observed fall in the expenditure multiplier. We find that the decline is accounted for by changes in two of the model’s structural parameters, namely a decline in consumption habit persistence and a higher autocorrelation of the public expenditure processes. These changes imply a stronger negative wealth effect, a lower discretion of US fiscal policy and, consequently, a multiplier of smaller magnitude. The model identifies the news shocks to military spending, yet fiscal news plays little role in the decline of the multiplier. Rather, the news shocks account for an important fraction of medium-term variances of debt and military expenditures, which justifies their inclusion in the model.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138536214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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