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Monetary policy in advanced and emerging economies 发达经济体和新兴经济体的货币政策
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000105
Apostolos Serletis, Cosmas Dery
{"title":"Monetary policy in advanced and emerging economies","authors":"Apostolos Serletis, Cosmas Dery","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000105","url":null,"abstract":"We are motivated by central bank responses to the rise in inflation in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic and investigate monetary policy behavior in advanced and emerging economies. We speak to the debate on whether the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies is fundamentally different from that in advanced economies. We also address the issue of whether the common practice of using market rates (instead of policy rates) to proxy for the stance of monetary policy leads to different conclusions regarding the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging economies. Using time series data for the G7 and EM7 countries, we show that the conventional wisdom that monetary policy in emerging economies is different from monetary policy in advanced economies still holds.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140563496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Embodied technological progress, heterogeneous multiworker firms, and unemployment 体现技术进步、异质多工人企业和失业问题
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000130
Kosho Tanaka
{"title":"Embodied technological progress, heterogeneous multiworker firms, and unemployment","authors":"Kosho Tanaka","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000130","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of technological progress on unemployment in a search-matching model with heterogeneous multiworker firms. In the model, some firms continue to reap rewards from new technologies over time and contribute to job creation, while other firms obsolesce and reduce their employment. Thus, the model captures an endogenous change in the aggregate composition of firms (the firm-composition effect). Considering this effect along with the two canonical effects—the capitalization and creative-destruction effects—I examine the importance of each through a simulation. The results show that the firm-composition effect explains almost all the variation in unemployment in the model, mainly through shrinking the number of obsolescing firms relative to surviving firms and increasing the aggregate technology adoption rate when technology progresses rapidly.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140563456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bankruptcy law as an alternative to fiscal policy in a Woodford model with a productivity shock 在生产率冲击的伍德福德模型中以破产法替代财政政策
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000099
Aloísio Araújo, Vitor Costa
{"title":"Bankruptcy law as an alternative to fiscal policy in a Woodford model with a productivity shock","authors":"Aloísio Araújo, Vitor Costa","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000099","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show that trade credit contracts between sectors can provide a useful alternative to fiscal transfers during a major productivity shock. Defaults in credit contracts function as transfers between sectors, which can be implemented through a bankruptcy law or through credit renegotiation. Transfers implemented through defaults allow for a reduction in the size of the fiscal policy that restores the economy to the optimal allocation, constituting a relevant alternative to economies without an available fiscal space to implement the optimal policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140563900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does household debt affect the size of the fiscal multiplier? 家庭债务是否会影响财政乘数的大小？
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000075
Juan Zurita
{"title":"Does household debt affect the size of the fiscal multiplier?","authors":"Juan Zurita","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000075","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Does household debt affect the size of the fiscal multiplier? We investigate the effects of household debt on government spending multipliers using a smooth transition vector autoregression model. Through generalized impulse response functions, we measure whether the effect of government spending on GDP is conditioned by different levels of household debt in Australia, Sweden, and Norway, three countries with high levels of household indebtedness, and in the world’s seven largest economies. Our results indicate that the short-term effects of government spending tend to be higher if fiscal expansion takes place during periods of low household debt. On average, the fiscal multiplier (on impact) is 0.70, 0.61, and 0.79 (percent of GDP) larger when the increase in government spending takes place during periods of low household debt for Australia, Norway, and the United States.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140034213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The credit-augmented Divisia aggregates and the monetary business cycle 信贷增量的迪维亚总量与货币商业周期
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000627
Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu
{"title":"The credit-augmented Divisia aggregates and the monetary business cycle","authors":"Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000627","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We follow Belongia and Ireland (2021) and investigate the role that the Center for Financial Stability credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates could play in monetary policy and business cycle analysis. We use Bayesian methods to estimate a structural VAR under priors that reflect Keynesian channels of monetary transmission, but produce posterior distributions for the structural parameters consistent with classical channels. We also find that valuable information is contained in the credit-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates and that they perform even better than the conventional Divisia aggregates, in terms of highlighting the role of the money supply in aggregate demand.</p>","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140034014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New evidence on US monetary policy activism and the Taylor rule 关于美国货币政策激进主义和泰勒规则的新证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1017/s136510052400004x
Chew Lian Chua, Sarantis Tsiaplias
{"title":"New evidence on US monetary policy activism and the Taylor rule","authors":"Chew Lian Chua, Sarantis Tsiaplias","doi":"10.1017/s136510052400004x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052400004x","url":null,"abstract":"We provide new evidence about US monetary policy using a model that: (i) estimates time-varying monetary policy weights without relying on stylized theoretical assumptions; (ii) allows for endogenous breakdowns in the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and output; and (iii) generates a unique measure of monetary policy activism that accounts for economic instability. The joint incorporation of endogenous time-varying uncertainty about the monetary policy parameters and the stability of the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and output materially reduces the probability of determinate monetary policy. The average probability of determinacy over the period post-1982 to 1997 is below 60% (hence well below seminal estimates of determinacy probabilities that are close to unity). Post-1990, the average probability of determinacy is 75%, falling to approximately 60% when we allow for typical levels of trend inflation.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140016735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unionization, industry concentration, and economic growth 工会化、产业集中度和经济增长
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000063
Colin Davis, Ken-ichi Hashimoto, Ken Tabata
{"title":"Unionization, industry concentration, and economic growth","authors":"Colin Davis, Ken-ichi Hashimoto, Ken Tabata","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000063","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how unionization affects economic growth through its impact on industry concentration in a two-country model of international trade and endogenous productivity growth. Knowledge spillovers link firm-level productivity in innovation with geographic patterns of industry ensuring a faster rate of output growth when industry is relatively concentrated in the country with the greater labor supply. We show that stronger bargaining power in the relatively large country increases the rate of output growth when labor unions are employment-oriented but decreases the rate of growth when unions are wage-oriented. We then calibrate the model using labor market data for the United Kingdom and France and study the effects of union bargaining power on industry location patterns, output growth, and national welfare.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140016763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectation formation and the Phillips curve revisited 再论预期形成和菲利普斯曲线
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000051
Robert L. Czudaj
{"title":"Expectation formation and the Phillips curve revisited","authors":"Robert L. Czudaj","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000051","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies expectation formation of professional forecasters in the context of the Phillips curve. We assess whether professionals form their expectations regarding inflation and unemployment consistent with the Phillips curve based on individual forecast data taken from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We consider expectations over different horizons and do not restrict the analysis to point forecasts but we also take the information inherent in density forecasts into account. We explicitly consider the role of anchoring of inflation expectations as potential source of nonlinearity, and we also assess whether the Phillips curve relation translates to a link between uncertainty regarding inflation and unemployment. Our findings show that professionals tend to build their expectations in line with the Phillips curve but this is only observed for expectations made for shorter horizons. For longer horizons, the Phillips curve connection is much weaker. This relationship also depends on the degree of anchoring and results in a connection between uncertainty regarding future inflation and unemployment.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140016801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inter-industry trade and business cycle dynamics 产业间贸易和商业周期动态
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000014
Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mariya Mileva
{"title":"Inter-industry trade and business cycle dynamics","authors":"Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mariya Mileva","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000014","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the increased importance of trade between industrialized and less-developed countries, we build a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring inter-industry trade as well as intra-industry trade to analyze the business cycle dynamics of industrialized countries. We find that import-competing sectors are more sensitive to domestic productivity shocks than exporting sectors, due to their stronger reliance on domestic demand. This generates pressure to adjust relative prices and to reallocate factors of production. It also propagates the international spillover effects of productivity shocks leading to stronger business cycle comovement across countries, relative to a traditional business cycle model that does not feature inter-industry trade.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139918904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A note on the neutrality of interest rates 关于利率中性的说明
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Macroeconomic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI: 10.1017/s1365100524000026
Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu
{"title":"A note on the neutrality of interest rates","authors":"Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu","doi":"10.1017/s1365100524000026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100524000026","url":null,"abstract":"We test the neutrality of nominal interest rates taking advantage of recent advances in quantitative financial history using the Schmelzing (2022) global nominal interest rate and inflation rate series (across eight centuries), for France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the USA. We pay attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the variables and use the bivariate autoregressive methodology proposed by King and Watson (1997). We argue that meaningful long-run neutrality tests can be performed only for three countries—Japan, Spain, and the United Kingdom—and we find no evidence consistent with the neutrality of nominal interest rates.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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