Journal of the Operational Research Society最新文献

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Integrated scheduling of production and distribution with two competing agents 集成调度生产和分销与两个竞争代理
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2277867
Bayi Cheng, Junwei Gao, Mi Zhou, Wei Chu
{"title":"Integrated scheduling of production and distribution with two competing agents","authors":"Bayi Cheng, Junwei Gao, Mi Zhou, Wei Chu","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2277867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2277867","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThis paper studies a two-agent scheduling problem on a single batch machine. Each job j has a processing time pj and a size sj. Jobs should be delivered to the agent as soon as possible. The objective is to minimize the service span of the first agent subject to an upper bound on the makespan of the other agent. We propose two approximation algorithms when jobs have identical processing times and in the general case. Then we conduct theoretical analyses to provide the provable guarantees on the performances of the algorithms. Finally, we conduct simulation analyses based on randomly generated instances to evaluate the average performances of the algorithm in the general case.Keywords: Batch machinetwo competing agentsschedulingdeliveryapproximation algorithms Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationFundingThis work was partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 72371093 and 72071056. This work is also partly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFE0110300.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"38 18","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135820033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A material balance approach for modelling banks’ production process with non-performing loans 不良贷款对银行生产过程建模的物质平衡方法
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2273460
Hirofumi Fukuyama, Roman Matousek, Nickolaos G. Tzeremes
{"title":"A material balance approach for modelling banks’ production process with non-performing loans","authors":"Hirofumi Fukuyama, Roman Matousek, Nickolaos G. Tzeremes","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2273460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2273460","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this to study is to examine how non-performing loans on the balance sheets of Japanese banks affect their performance by adopting a material balance principle. The paper outlines how the material balance conditions can be applied when modelling banks’ production process in the presence of non-performing loans. The paper utilizes the generalized weak G-disposability principle which accounts for the heterogeneity among banks’ input quality. We test how an input-oriented model (non-performing loans are treated as an input), the weak disposability assumption and the adopted material balance approach, affect banks’ performance levels. We apply our test on a sample of Japanese banks over the period 2013 to 2019. Our findings indicate that the input-oriented model and the material balance estimator even if they present similar distributions, they account differently the effect of non-performing loans’ fluctuations over the examined period. In addition, the results under the weak disposability assumption are found to be different compared to the material balance measures and less sensitive to banks’ non-performing loans variation levels. We also provide evidence that the generalized weak G-disposability assumption captures better banks’ performance fluctuations that has been caused by the restructuring of the Japanese banking industry.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"53 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135813182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The interaction between manufacturer-encroachment and information sharing in a closed-loop supply chain under technology licensing 技术许可下闭环供应链中制造商侵占与信息共享的互动关系
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2274950
Yanting Huang, Zongjun Wang
{"title":"The interaction between manufacturer-encroachment and information sharing in a closed-loop supply chain under technology licensing","authors":"Yanting Huang, Zongjun Wang","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2274950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2274950","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"15 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134909655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An efficient simulation optimization method for the redundancy allocation problem with a chance constraint 具有机会约束的冗余分配问题的一种高效仿真优化方法
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2272860
Kuo-Hao Chang, Chi-Ping Lin
{"title":"An efficient simulation optimization method for the redundancy allocation problem with a chance constraint","authors":"Kuo-Hao Chang, Chi-Ping Lin","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2272860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2272860","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractWe explore the Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) under the objective of minimizing the cost of a production system of general topology in which system reliability is treated as a chance constraint. A novel simulation optimization-based solution method grounded in the concepts of the trust region and response surface methodology is proposed to efficiently solve the generalized RAP (GRAP) under random system survival times. The generalizability of the RAP model and efficiency of the solution method allows for our approach to be utilized in a wide variety of real-world applications. We demonstrate in a series of numerical experiments based on production systems of varying complexity that the finite convergence of the proposed method is much more efficient than the commonly-used genetic algorithm. It is shown that on a simple bridge network, only the proposed algorithm can find the true optimal solution to the GRAP under an allotted computational budget. On a complex network which includes series, parallel, and logical relationships, the proposed algorithm is also shown to find solutions to the GRAP which have substantially lower total system cost than those found by GA under a wide variety of scenarios.Keywords: Reliabilityredundancy allocation problemsimulation optimizationchance constraint AcknowledgementThis work was financially supported by National Science and Technology Council (Taiwan) and the “High Entropy Materials Center” from The Featured Areas Research Center Program within the framework of the Higher Education Sprout Project by the Ministry of Education (MOE) in Taiwan.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis work was financially supported by National Science and Technology Council (Taiwan) and the “High Entropy Materials Center” from The Featured Areas Research Center Program within the framework of the Higher Education Sprout Project by the Ministry of Education (MOE) in Taiwan.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135366941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information disclosure and pricing in the online expert service platform 在线专家服务平台的信息披露与定价
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269212
Shaofu Du, Xuefeng Peng, Tengfei Nie, Yangguang Zhu
{"title":"Information disclosure and pricing in the online expert service platform","authors":"Shaofu Du, Xuefeng Peng, Tengfei Nie, Yangguang Zhu","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2269212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2269212","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThe online expert service (OES) market is thriving by providing convenient professional services such as telemedicine consultation, legal advice, and financial planning. However, the practical phenomena, namely information asymmetry and the existence of naive consumers in the OES industry, motivate us to investigate how consumers’ two-dimensional heterogeneity and the expert’s agency pricing strategy with effort costs affect the OES platform’s information disclosure decision and corresponding market outcomes. By building a game-theoretic model, we consider the monopolistic OES platform in which the expert provides service to a mass of consumers, who can be either sophisticated or naive. The platform, as the designer of the disclosure framework, is thus an additional player in the seller-consumer game. Our results show that, when the marginal cost is intermediate, the platform strategically manipulates consumers’ valuation beliefs with partial disclosure to increase profitability without significant loss of market coverage. Furthermore, when naive consumers exist, the platform counter-intuitively discloses more information compared to that of all sophisticated consumers. Moreover, interestingly, when the marginal cost is low-to-intermediate, more naive consumers bring about more disclosure and thus obtain more demand for high-end sophisticated consumers, making both the expert and platform better off.Keywords: Online expert serviceplatforminformation disclosureagency pricinggame theory NotesDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 For expositional ease, we will refer to a consumer as “he,” the expert as “she” and the OES platform as “it.”2 Statista. Telemedicine market size worldwide 2019-2030, please see https://www.statista.com/statistics/671374/global-telemedicine-market-size/.3 This assumption reflects the reality of fairly stable commission rates charged by the marketplace platforms in the OES industry today. For example, www.chunyuyisheng.com declares that a constant 20% of the platform service fee will be deducted when each expert consultation is settled since 2019.4 For ease of exposition, we refer to 1−2c and 1−λ2 as λ0 and c0, respectively.Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72071193, 72293582, 71971201, 72188101, 72271078), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. KY2040000049). The research was also supported by National Social Science Fund of China (No. 21&ZD129) and Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province (No. tsqn202103024). The authors also thank the Qilu Young Scholars of Shandong University for financial support. Xuefeng Peng acknowledges the support from the China Scholarship Council.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135729787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On difference between direct-response method and strategy method in decision-making: behavioural and neural evidence in a reward-punishment game 决策中直接反应法与策略法的差异:奖罚博弈中的行为与神经证据
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269984
Luyao Li, Xiaobo Zhao, Dong Xie, Xue Xiao
{"title":"On difference between direct-response method and strategy method in decision-making: behavioural and neural evidence in a reward-punishment game","authors":"Luyao Li, Xiaobo Zhao, Dong Xie, Xue Xiao","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2269984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2269984","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractDecision-makers may follow either the direct-response method or strategy method. While the two elicitation methods are theoretically equivalent, it is uncertain whether they lead to the same outcomes in practice. To explore this issue, we conduct an experiment based on a reward-punishment game under both methods, in which functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is used to provide neural evidence for uncovering the underlying behavioural mechanisms. The results show that both the reward and punishment rates are significantly higher under the strategy method compared to the direct-response method. We develop behavioural models to explain these differences and identify the ownership effect, strategic thinking, and counterfactual thinking as potential drivers. Comparison of neural activity between the two treatments demonstrates that during reward/no-reward decisions, the direct-response treatment accrues stronger activation in the bilateral anterior insula, indicating that decision-makers overweigh reward cost due to ownership effect, which consequently leads to reduced willingness to impose rewards. Conversely, during punishment/no-punishment decisions, the strategy treatment causes stronger activations in the bilateral anterior insula and inferior parietal lobule, implying that decision-makers perceive strong unfairness due to counterfactual thinking, which further results in more punishment decisions. Moreover, our findings reveal that strategic thinking influences decision-making during long-term interactions.Keywords: Behavioural ORelicitation methodreward-punishment gamefMRIcounterfactual thinkingownership effect AcknowledgementsThe authors thank the CBIR (Center for Biomedical Imaging Research) of Tsinghua University for technical support.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 No statistical procedures were used to predetermine the sample size, but our sample size for one treatment is not smaller than similar fMRI experiments in previous publications (Grecucci et al., Citation2013; Sanfey et al., Citation2003; Zhao et al., Citation2016).2 We conduct regression analyses of the senders’ and receivers’ decisions in the direct-response and strategy treatments, respectively. The coefficients of time trend are insignificant at the level of p = 0.05.Additional informationFundingThis research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant 72271136.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135779146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal financing strategies for a risk-averse supplier under the CVaR criterion in a capital-constrained supply chain 资本约束供应链中CVaR准则下风险规避供应商的最优融资策略
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269192
Boshi Tian, Yuanxin Lu, Liangwei Yu, Xiaoxing Chang
{"title":"Optimal financing strategies for a risk-averse supplier under the CVaR criterion in a capital-constrained supply chain","authors":"Boshi Tian, Yuanxin Lu, Liangwei Yu, Xiaoxing Chang","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2269192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2269192","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractWe focus on analyzing the risk preferences of suppliers regarding two types of financing: partial credit guarantee (PCG) and trade credit financing (TCF). Using the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion, we study each supply chain member’s equilibrium solution and optimal financing strategy under the assumption of demand distributions with an increasing failure rate. Initially, we present an analytical solution of the risk-averse supplier’s wholesale price, and prove that the optimal wholesale price decreases in the risk-averse level and initial capital, and increases in the credit guarantee ratio. Furthermore, we derive optimal financing strategies for both the supplier and the retailer under various circumstances. However, it is important to note that the results reveal a potential trade-off associated with PCG. While risk-averse suppliers may be more inclined to provide PCG compared to risk-neutral suppliers, this financing option can negatively impact the supplier’s utility and the expected profits of the retailers. Finally, we illustrate how the optimal financing strategies shift in response to changes in the risk-averse level and credit guarantee ratio, and present the win-win situations for the supplier and the retailer.Keywords: Supply chain managementrisk-averse attitudepartial credit guaranteetrade credit Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 https://www.leiphone.com/category/industrynews/PHJfNRQtmboIM9cE.html2 http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201705/19/t20170519_22993865.shtmlAdditional informationFundingThis work was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 21BGL125), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 11601142), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant no. 2021JJ40136).","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136115963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A multi-criteria group decision-making method with fuzzy preference relations based on filtration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistency 基于过滤加权三角有界一致性的模糊偏好关系多准则群体决策方法
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2266449
Wenjun Chang, Chao Fu
{"title":"A multi-criteria group decision-making method with fuzzy preference relations based on filtration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistency","authors":"Wenjun Chang, Chao Fu","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2266449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2266449","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractIn multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problems with incomplete fuzzy preference relations (FPRs), the consistency based on bounded rationality is preferred to depend on the historical preferences of decision makers to generate complete FPR matrices. There are two factors in influencing the effect of historical preferences on complete FPR matrices and further decision makers’ satisfaction of group solutions. One is the effectiveness of historical preferences and the other is their relative weights. On this basis, this paper proposes a new MCGDM method with FPRs based on the filtration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistency (FWBTBC), where historical FPRs between three adjacent pairs of alternatives are characterized by triangles and these two factors are considered comprehensively. A triangle filtration process is designed based on the Grubbs criterion to filter the abnormal triangles in the collected ones. A weight determination process is developed, where a distance measure between remaining triangles is constructed to calculate their weights. Based on the combination of the two processes, the FWBTBC of FPRs is created and then the proposed method is presented. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by its application in analyzing a drainage tube supplier selection problem for a tertiary hospital located in Hefei, Anhui, China.Keywords: Multi-criteria group decision-makingtriangle filtrationweight determinationfiltration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistencydrainage tube supplier selection Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72101074 and 72171066) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. JZ2023HGTB0275).","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135858156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Playing the new devil’s advocate role in facilitated modelling processes to address group homogeneity 在促进建模过程中扮演新的魔鬼代言人的角色,以解决群体同质性问题
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2263101
Giovanni Cunico, Nici Zimmermann, Nuno Videira
{"title":"Playing the new devil’s advocate role in facilitated modelling processes to address group homogeneity","authors":"Giovanni Cunico, Nici Zimmermann, Nuno Videira","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2263101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2263101","url":null,"abstract":"To address complex issues, facilitated modelling aims to represent and accommodate plural worldviews from many stakeholders and experts. In these contexts, group homogeneity can become problematic when participants’ plurality of perspectives and information is missing and people attending facilitated sessions have similar problem perceptions and interests. This is a challenge because it can lead to narrow discussion, groupthink and undermine output quality. Despite not being uncommon, effective approaches to deal with homogeneity are hardly reported. This paper presents a new role—the New Devil’s Advocate—in which some facilitators leave their neutrality-oriented stance and act as the missing stakeholders. The paper illustrates a first application to a group model building process aimed at supporting the development of energy efficiency policies in the UK. To evaluate the results, workshop transcripts were coded, participants’ and facilitators’ feedback collected, and the modelling output assessed with respect to the New Devil’s Advocate interventions during the workshop. Although the role performance appears to increase facilitators’ workload and be influenced by role performers’ personality and background, the analysis shows positive results as a promising practice to address homogeneity. Additionally, it offers a practical experience of how facilitation teams may temporarily abandon neutrality and intervene on content.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136295068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From data to action: Empowering COVID-19 monitoring and forecasting with intelligent algorithms 从数据到行动:利用智能算法增强COVID-19监测和预测能力
4区 管理学
Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2240354
Vincent Charles, Seyed Muhammad Hossein Mousavi, Tatiana Gherman, S. Muhammad Hassan Mosavi
{"title":"From data to action: Empowering COVID-19 monitoring and forecasting with intelligent algorithms","authors":"Vincent Charles, Seyed Muhammad Hossein Mousavi, Tatiana Gherman, S. Muhammad Hassan Mosavi","doi":"10.1080/01605682.2023.2240354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2023.2240354","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted every aspect of our lives, from economic to the social facets of contemporary society. While the new COVID-19 waves may not be anticipated to be as severe as previous ones, it would be unreasonable to assume that they will cease any time soon. Consequently, forecasting the number of future infections, recovered patients, and death cases remains a very much logical step in trying to fight against further waves, in conjunction with ongoing vaccination efforts. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of three intelligent machine learning algorithms, namely GMDH, Bi-LSTM, and GA + NN, for COVID-19 forecasting, with an application to Iran and the United Kingdom. The experimental results show that the algorithms can be used to forecast the next six months of COVID-19 in terms of confirmed, recovered, and death cases, which gives a more ample timeframe for using the results to make better practical yet strategic decisions and take appropriate actions or measures to deploy resources effectively to contain or curb the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the distinct dynamics observed in the data, our analysis proves the robustness of the employed models.","PeriodicalId":17308,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136280241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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