{"title":"Empirical Best Prediction of Small Area Means Based on a Unit-Level Gamma-Poisson Model","authors":"Emily J. Berg","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smac026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smac026","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Existing small area estimation procedures for count data have important limitations. For instance, an M-quantile-based method is known to be less efficient than model-based procedures if the assumptions of the model hold. Also, frequentist inference procedures for Poisson generalized linear mixed models can be computationally intensive or require approximations. Furthermore, area-level models are incapable of incorporating unit-level covariates. We overcome these limitations by developing a small area estimation procedure for a unit-level gamma-Poisson model. The conjugate form of the model permits computationally simple estimation and prediction procedures. We obtain a closed-form expression for the empirical best predictor of the mean as well as a closed-form mean square error estimator. We validate the procedure through simulations. We illustrate the proposed method using a subset of data from the Iowa Seat-Belt Use survey.","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41515091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Automated Classification for Open-Ended Questions with BERT","authors":"Hyukjun Gweon, Matthias Schonlau","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smad015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Manual coding of text data from open-ended questions into different categories is time consuming and expensive. Automated coding uses statistical/machine learning to train on a small subset of manually-coded text answers. Recently, pretraining a general language model on vast amounts of unrelated data and then adapting the model to the specific application has proven effective in natural language processing. Using two data sets, we empirically investigate whether BERT, the currently dominant pretrained language model, is more effective at automated coding of answers to open-ended questions than other non-pretrained statistical learning approaches. We found fine-tuning the pretrained BERT parameters is essential as otherwise BERT is not competitive. Second, we found fine-tuned BERT barely beats the non-pretrained statistical learning approaches in terms of classification accuracy when trained on 100 manually coded observations. However, BERT’s relative advantage increases rapidly when more manually coded observations (e.g., 200–400) are available for training. We conclude that for automatically coding answers to open-ended questions BERT is preferable to non-pretrained models such as support vector machines and boosting.","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46968013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Group-Specific Interviewer Effects on Survey Participation Using Separate Coding for Random Slopes in Multilevel Models","authors":"J. Herzing, A. Blom, B. Meuleman","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smac025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smac025","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite its importance in terms of survey participation, the literature is sparse on how face-to-face interviewers differentially affect specific groups of sample units. This paper demonstrates how an alternative parametrization of the random components in multilevel models, so-called separate coding, delivers valuable insights into differential interviewer effects for specific groups of sample members. In the example of a face-to-face recruitment interview for a probability-based online panel, we detect small interviewer effects regarding survey participation for non-Internet households, whereas we find sizable interviewer effects for Internet households. We derive practical guidance for survey practitioners to address differential interviewer effects based on the proposed variance decomposition.","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43011963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
James Wagner, Brady T West, Mick P Couper, Shiyu Zhang, Rebecca Gatward, Raphael Nishimura, Htay-Wah Saw
{"title":"An Experimental Evaluation of Two Approaches for Improving Response to Household Screening Efforts in National Mail/Web Surveys.","authors":"James Wagner, Brady T West, Mick P Couper, Shiyu Zhang, Rebecca Gatward, Raphael Nishimura, Htay-Wah Saw","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smac024","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jssam/smac024","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Survey researchers have carefully modified their data collection operations for various reasons, including the rising costs of data collection and the ongoing Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, both of which have made in-person interviewing difficult. For large national surveys that require household (HH) screening to determine survey eligibility, cost-efficient screening methods that do not include in-person visits need additional evaluation and testing. A new study, known as the American Family Health Study (AFHS), recently initiated data collection with a national probability sample, using a sequential mixed-mode mail/web protocol for push-to-web US HH screening (targeting persons aged 18-49 years). To better understand optimal approaches for this type of national screening effort, we embedded two randomized experiments in the AFHS data collection. The first tested the use of bilingual respondent materials where mailed invitations to the screener were sent in both English and Spanish to 50 percent of addresses with a high predicted likelihood of having a Spanish speaker and 10 percent of all other addresses. We found that the bilingual approach did not increase the response rate of high-likelihood Spanish-speaking addresses, but consistent with prior work, it increased the proportion of eligible Hispanic respondents identified among completed screeners, especially among addresses predicted to have a high likelihood of having Spanish speakers. The second tested a form of nonresponse follow-up, where a subsample of active sampled HHs that had not yet responded to the screening invitations was sent a priority mailing with a $5 incentive, adding to the $2 incentive provided for all sampled HHs in the initial screening invitation. We found this approach to be quite valuable for increasing the screening survey response rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"11 1","pages":"124-140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9875245/pdf/smac024.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9169546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A SEMIPARAMETRIC MULTIPLE IMPUTATION APPROACH TO FULLY SYNTHETIC DATA FOR COMPLEX SURVEYS.","authors":"Mandi Yu, Yulei He, Trivellore E Raghunathan","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smac016","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jssam/smac016","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Data synthesis is an effective statistical approach for reducing data disclosure risk. Generating fully synthetic data might minimize such risk, but its modeling and application can be difficult for data from large, complex surveys. This article extended the two-stage imputation to simultaneously impute item missing values and generate fully synthetic data. A new combining rule for making inferences using data generated in this manner was developed. Two semiparametric missing data imputation models were adapted to generate fully synthetic data for skewed continuous variable and sparse binary variable, respectively. The proposed approach was evaluated using simulated data and real longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. The proposed approach was also compared with two existing synthesis approaches: (1) parametric regressions models as implemented in <i>IVEware</i>; and (2) nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees as implemented in <i>synthpop</i> package for R using real data. The results show that high data utility is maintained for a wide variety of descriptive and model-based statistics using the proposed strategy. The proposed strategy also performs better than existing methods for sophisticated analyses such as factor analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"1 1","pages":"618-641"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11044899/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61006847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brady T West, Ai Rene Ong, Frederick G Conrad, Michael F Schober, Kallan M Larsen, Andrew L Hupp
{"title":"INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN LIVE VIDEO AND PRERECORDED VIDEO INTERVIEWING.","authors":"Brady T West, Ai Rene Ong, Frederick G Conrad, Michael F Schober, Kallan M Larsen, Andrew L Hupp","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smab040","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jssam/smab040","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Live video (LV) communication tools (e.g., Zoom) have the potential to provide survey researchers with many of the benefits of in-person interviewing, while also greatly reducing data collection costs, given that interviewers do not need to travel and make in-person visits to sampled households. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of in-person data collection to public health crises, forcing survey researchers to explore remote data collection modes-such as LV interviewing-that seem likely to yield high-quality data without in-person interaction. Given the potential benefits of these technologies, the operational and methodological aspects of video interviewing have started to receive research attention from survey methodologists. Although it is remote, video interviewing still involves respondent-interviewer interaction that introduces the possibility of interviewer effects. No research to date has evaluated this potential threat to the quality of the data collected in video interviews. This research note presents an evaluation of interviewer effects in a recent experimental study of alternative approaches to video interviewing including both LV interviewing and the use of prerecorded videos of the same interviewers asking questions embedded in a web survey (\"prerecorded video\" interviewing). We find little evidence of significant interviewer effects when using these two approaches, which is a promising result. We also find that when interviewer effects were present, they tended to be slightly larger in the LV approach as would be expected in light of its being an interactive approach. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research using video interviewing.</p>","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"10 2","pages":"317-336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8690284/pdf/smab040.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9793318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On The Robustness Of Respondent-Driven Sampling Estimators To Measurement Error.","authors":"Ian E Fellows","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smab056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smab056","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a popular method of conducting surveys in hard to reach populations where strong assumptions are required in order to make valid statistical inferences. In this paper we investigate the assumption that network degrees are measured accurately by the RDS survey and find that there is likely significant measurement error present in typical studies. We prove that most RDS estimators remain consistent under an imperfect measurement model with little to no added bias, though the variance of the estimators does increase.</p>","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"10 2","pages":"377-396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9014508/pdf/smab056.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10483066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On The Robustness Of Respondent-Driven Sampling Estimators To Measurement Error.","authors":"Ian E. Fellows","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smac004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smac004","url":null,"abstract":"Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a popular method of conducting surveys in hard to reach populations where strong assumptions are required in order to make valid statistical inferences. In this paper we investigate the assumption that network degrees are measured accurately by the RDS survey and find that there is likely significant measurement error present in typical studies. We prove that most RDS estimators remain consistent under an imperfect measurement model with little to no added bias, though the variance of the estimators does increase.","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"10 2 1","pages":"377-396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45789287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fabienne Kraemer, Henning Silber, Bella Struminskaya, M. Bošnjak, J. Kossmann, Bernd Weiss
{"title":"Panel Conditioning in a German Probability-Based Longitudinal Study: A Comparison of Respondents with Different Levels of Survey Experience","authors":"Fabienne Kraemer, Henning Silber, Bella Struminskaya, M. Bošnjak, J. Kossmann, Bernd Weiss","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/vd5xp","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/vd5xp","url":null,"abstract":"Learning effects due to repeated interviewing, which are referred to as panel conditioning, are a major threat to response quality in later waves of a panel study. Up to date, research has not provided a clear picture regarding the circumstances, mechanisms, and dimensions of potential panel conditioning effects. Especially the effects of conditioning frequency, that is, different levels of experience within a panel, on response quality are underexplored. Against this background, we investigated the effects of panel conditioning by using data from the GESIS Panel, a German mixed-mode probability-based panel study. Using two refreshment samples, we compared three panel cohorts with differing levels of experience with respect to several response quality indicators related to the mechanisms of reflection, satisficing, and social desirability. Overall, we find evidence for both negative (i.e., disadvantageous for response quality) as well as positive (i.e., advantageous for response quality) panel conditioning. Highly experienced respondents were more likely to satisfice by selecting mid-point responses or by speeding through the questionnaire. They also had a higher probability of refusing to answer sensitive questions than less experienced panel members. However, more experienced respondents were also more likely to optimize the response processes by needing less time compared to panelists with lower experience levels (when controlling for speeding). In contrast, we did not find significant differences with respect to the number of “don’t know” responses, non-differentiation, the selection of first response categories, and the number of non-triggered filter questions. Of the observed differences, speeding showed the highest magnitude with an average increase of 5.9 percentage points for highly experienced panel members compared to low experienced panelists.","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44830407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inference from Nonrandom Samples Using Bayesian Machine Learning.","authors":"Yutao Liu, Andrew Gelman, Qixuan Chen","doi":"10.1093/jssam/smab049","DOIUrl":"10.1093/jssam/smab049","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We consider inference from nonrandom samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized prediction approach that predicts the outcomes in the population using a large number of auxiliary variables such that the ignorability assumption is reasonable and the Bayesian framework is straightforward for quantification of uncertainty. Besides the auxiliary variables, we also extend the approach by estimating the propensity score for a unit to be included in the sample and also including it as a predictor in the machine learning models. We find in simulation studies that the regularized predictions using soft Bayesian additive regression trees yield valid inference for the population means and coverage rates close to the nominal levels. We demonstrate the application of the proposed methods using two different real data applications, one in a survey and one in an epidemiologic study.</p>","PeriodicalId":17146,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology","volume":"11 2","pages":"433-455"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10080218/pdf/smab049.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9637930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}