Journal of Probability and Statistical Science最新文献

{"title":"Rice crop growth analysis using Auto Regressive Models","authors":"Khadar Babu SK, C. Chesneau, Victor Anthonysamy","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.664","url":null,"abstract":"Time series play a vital role in predicting and forecasting different types of agricultural applications with respect to different types of problems among successive units of observations. Time series forecasting techniques are applied in all areas of statistics, and one of the most important applications includes backscatter generating time-series data using advanced forecasting techniques. Agriculture is a major food sector in the world, and it is also a major income source for low-income people. In this paper, we present two aspects of the rice crop growing time series process. The first one is to identify different types of rice crop growing stages for backscatter datasets, and the second is to make a mathematical time series model for the generation of different data sets. The different operator techniques (DOT) method was introduced to identify different types of rice crop growing stages in a season. We proposed the DOT method for identification of different phenological stages for a short-term crop and adopted first and second-order auto-regressive models for prediction and forecasting of the generating backscatter time series observations. The measures of the quality fit are mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean percent error (MPE), and mean absolute error (MAE).","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129603364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Modeling for Flood Frequency in Upper Chaophraya River Basin","authors":"Areerat Anuchon, Kamon Budsaba, Andrei Volodin","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.701","url":null,"abstract":"The research deals with the probabilistic estimates of annual maximum flood peaks in the upper Chaophraya basin (Thailand) used the extreme value theory, the Block Maxima. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model, the Frèchet distribution (EV2), the extension of the Frèchet distribution such as the Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution and the new distribution as called the Exponentiated Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution satisfied the Goodness of fit test (Kolmokorov-smirnov test). The return levels are estimated for 3, 5, 10, 30, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years which are consistently increasing for designs of flood protection in future. The return period of flood for each stations are estimated. \u0000The investigation of the new distribution and appropriated estimation technique for the flood frequency in upper Chaophraya river basin as we called the Exponentiated Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution and the differential evolution maximum likelihood estimation were done. We derived the properties of the Frèchet family; such as the Frèchet distribution (EV2), the Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution (KF) and the Exponentiated Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution (EKF). We also compared Bias, Variance, Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error for all parameters in each distribution by generating the Frèchet family random number. For the effectiveness of analytical solutions of the parameters we provided the numerical solutions (differential evolution method) to obtain estimates for all parameters by using Scilab program. \u0000Accuracy of flood assessment of extreme event is of fundamental importance for many safety, engineering and financial application. In part of application we provided the probabilistic estimates of annual maximum flood peaks or momentary peak data in the upper Chaophraya river basin (Thailand). The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model were used to be gain to compare with as the Frèchet distribution (EV2), the Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution (KF) and the Exponentiated Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution (EKF). The Goodness of fit test, the return level and return period were done. The return periods of flood were classified by hazard class using GEV found that in upper Chaophraya river basin flood occurred highly. The result from the Frèchet family also occurred highly, but the return period and return level from the Kumaraswamy Frèchet distribution (KF) quite closed to GEV more than another distribution.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"328 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124298849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modified Weighted Rayleigh Distribution and Its Bivariate Extension","authors":"H. Muhammed, Hagar Mohamed Abdelghany","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.640","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, a new version of weighted Rayleigh distribution is constructed and studied. The statistical properties of the new distribution including the behavior of hazard and reversed hazard functions, moments, the central moments, moment generating function, mean, variance, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, median, mode, quantiles, stochastic ordering, exact information matrix and order statistics are also obtained, a simulation study and real data applications are performed.  Furthermore, a bivariate extension of the new distribution called the bivariate modified Rayleigh (BMWR) distribution is introduced. The proposed bivariate distribution is of type Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) copula. The BMWR distribution has modified weighted Rayleigh marginal distributions. The joint cumulative distribution function, the joint survival function, the joint probability density function, the joint hazard rate function and the statistical properties of the BMWR distribution are also derived.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121236453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Note on Early Termination in the 2^(k-p) Designs","authors":"Jia-Ren Tsai, Pen-Hwang Liau","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.534","url":null,"abstract":"A complete factorial experiment can resolve problems that occur in experiments that to determine suitable tolerances for the factors in a manufacturing process. Two-level fractional factorial designs have been widely used to investigate the effect of factors in which several factors are involved. In many circumstances, the experiment may be stopped before all the points have been run. This article argues that one should not arrange the points of the experiment in random order. Instead, one should consider adjusting the run order to protect against the risk of early termination, that is, a systematic run order should be carefully applied to the case. In this article, we will use semi-folding design as examples to illustrate the idea of how to take advantage of the sequential run order.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"130 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134192011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Noncalculus Derivations of Least Squares Estimates","authors":"Lawrence M. Lesser","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.703","url":null,"abstract":"This letter responds to and reflects on goals and claims of the previous issue’s papers on deriving least-squares estimates without calculus and brings in the technique of translating data points. ","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"265 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116244825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modified Weighted Uniform Distribution And Its Bivariate Extension","authors":"H. Muhammed, Hagar Mohamed Abdelghany","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.637","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper a new version of weighted uniform distribution is constructed and studied. The statistical properties of the new distribution including the behavior of hazard and reversed hazard functions, moments, the central moments, moment generating function, mean, variance, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, median, mode, quantile , stochastic ordering and order statistics are also obtained, a simulation study and real data applications are performed.  Moreover, a bivariate extension of the new distribution named the bivariate modified uniform (BMWU) distribution is introduced. The proposed bivariate distribution is of type Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) copula. The BMWU distribution has modified weighted uniform marginal distributions. The joint cumulative distribution function, the joint survival function, the joint probability density function, the joint hazard rate function and the statistical properties of the BMWU distribution are also derived.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125026984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Goodness of Fit Testing for the Log-logistic Distribution Based on Type I Censored Data","authors":"Samah Ahmed, A. Baklizi, Reza Pakyari","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.663","url":null,"abstract":"A goodness of fit test procedure is proposed for the log-logistic distribution when the available data are subject to Type I censoring. The proposed test is based on transforming type 1 censored data into complete data from a suitably truncated distribution. A Monte Carlo power study is conducted to evaluate and compare the performance of the proposed method with the existing classical methods. An application based on a real dataset is considered for illustrative purposes","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128087043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Candy Lover Learns to Optimize","authors":"Anh Phuong Do, Mamunur Rashid, J. Sarkar","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.678","url":null,"abstract":"A container has two types of candies: Type A and Type B. Concerned about her child's well-being, a wise mom pronounces, “Each day, you can choose two candies from the container random. If they are of different types, you can eat them both. If they are of the same type, eat only one and return the other to the container.” We analyze the expected number of days needed to eat all candies in the container and the proportion of days the child eats two candies. Several other variations are either worked out or left for readers to solve.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127665617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Inflated Model Based on Sized Biased Himanshu Distribution and its Applications","authors":"Abhishek Agarwal, Himanshu Pandey","doi":"10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2023.v21i1.683","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to develop an inflated probability model through size biased Himanshu Distribution under the certain assumptions. The proposed model involved certain parameters which are estimated by the Method of Maximum likelihood for the valuable inferences. The suitability of the proposed Model is tested by fitting to observed set of data.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131395889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Inference in the Cumulative Exposure Lognormal Model with Hybrid Censoring","authors":"A. Baklizi, Sawsan Abu Ghannam","doi":"10.37119/jpss2022.v20i1.512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37119/jpss2022.v20i1.512","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to analyze data coming from step stress life testing experiments where the stress level is  incremented at a preset time to obtain failure data faster. To analyze step stress data, a model that extrapolates the information attained from the accelerated tests to normal conditions needs to be fit to the life test data. We used the Cumulative Exposure Model (CEM) to model simple step stress lognormal life test data where hybrid censoring is present and applied the maximum likelihood estimation method to find the point and interval estimates of the parameters. Bootstrap intervals (bootstrap-t intervals and percentile intervals) were also constructed. We then performed a simulation study to assess the proposed methods of estimation under different hybrid censoring schemes. The Bias and MSE of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) along with the coverage probability and average lengths of the corresponding confidence intervals were investigated. Finally, an illustrative example has been used to demonstrate the application of the methods discussed in this paper.","PeriodicalId":161562,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Probability and Statistical Science","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126679383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}