Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth最新文献

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Earthquake Cycles and Seismic Source Processes on Carbonate Faults: Insights From Microphysically-Based Modeling 碳酸盐岩断层的地震旋回和震源过程:基于微物理建模的见解
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB031071
Jianye Chen
{"title":"Earthquake Cycles and Seismic Source Processes on Carbonate Faults: Insights From Microphysically-Based Modeling","authors":"Jianye Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024JB031071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB031071","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The source process of natural earthquakes, involving spontaneous fault slip and complex deformation processes within the fault zone, remains poorly understood. Despite advances in understanding earthquake nucleation and rupture propagation, a model capturing the full range of velocities and associated deformation mechanisms is still lacking. Existing studies often fail to integrate the contributing mechanisms comprehensively, limiting simulation of earthquake behavior at varying depths and loading velocities. This study addresses this gap by extending a microphysical friction model, originally developed for earthquake nucleation, to simulate the entire seismic cycle on a carbonate fault, using a spring-slider analog. The model predicts steady-state friction as a function of velocity (<i>v</i>) and depth, revealing a transition from <i>v</i>-strengthening to -weakening with increasing depth or decreasing velocity, and dynamic weakening at seismic velocities at all depths. These predictions align with previous laboratory results. Depths simulated range from the surface to the nucleation zone. At shallow depths featuring <i>v</i>-strengthening friction (&lt;4 km), the model predicts a range of slip behaviors at a rupture front, from catastrophic events to small slow-slip events with significant afterslip, depending on whether the peak resistance inherent in the model is surpassed during acceleration. At depths featuring nucleation (≥4 km), the model predicts spontaneous earthquake cycles with well-defined source characteristics. Notably, the predicted slip pulses resemble the classic or regularized <i>Yoffe</i> function, suggesting a self-healing rupture mode. The extended model improves our understanding of earthquake source processes and provides a potentially powerful framework for simulating earthquake behaviors on carbonate faults.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High-Resolution Seismic Imaging of the Seismic Gap on the Mid-to-South Segment of the Red River Fault, China 红河断裂带中南段地震间隙的高分辨率地震成像
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031601
Quan Sun, Zhen Guo, Yongshun John Chen, Shunping Pei, Yuanyuan V. Fu, Bin Luo, Xingong Tang
{"title":"High-Resolution Seismic Imaging of the Seismic Gap on the Mid-to-South Segment of the Red River Fault, China","authors":"Quan Sun,&nbsp;Zhen Guo,&nbsp;Yongshun John Chen,&nbsp;Shunping Pei,&nbsp;Yuanyuan V. Fu,&nbsp;Bin Luo,&nbsp;Xingong Tang","doi":"10.1029/2025JB031601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031601","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Red River Fault on the southeast Tibet is a highly active fault with intense seismicity. However, a seismic gap was observed in the middle section with a seismically active zone to the southeast. We conducted seismic imaging of these two segments using dense seismic arrays, and found pronounced structural differences with high Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs structures beneath the seismic gap and widespread low Vp, Vs, and high Vp/Vs anomalies under the active zone. The mafic rocks belonging to the Emeishan Large Igneous Province (ELIP) with high velocity and Vp/Vs ratios in the seismic gap are likely to serve as large asperities that are responsible for the long earthquake recurrence interval. In contrast, fluids and/or melts invading the seismogenic layers may expedite the evolution process and thus trigger frequent seismic events beneath the active zone. We speculate future strong earthquakes are prone to occur in the seismic gap which is presently locked, attracting sufficient attention for seismic hazard mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the Subduction Polarity Beneath the Semail Ophiolite 论Semail蛇绿岩的俯冲极性
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032145
Simone Pilia
{"title":"On the Subduction Polarity Beneath the Semail Ophiolite","authors":"Simone Pilia","doi":"10.1029/2025JB032145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB032145","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Semail ophiolite and the UAE-Oman mountain range offer a rare window into continental subduction and exhumation. Despite almost half a century of conflicting studies, the geometry and number of subductions that characterized the formation of the ophiolite and subsequent obduction remain debated. Competing tectonic models range from a single NE-directed subduction that initiated with ophiolite and sole formation at <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>96–95 Ma, to scenarios involving multiple metamorphic events linked to opposite subduction polarities - including prograde metamorphism at <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>110–130 Ma followed by retrograde metamorphism at <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>80 Ma–or models proposing the juxtaposition of two separate subduction zones. This study investigates the tectonic evolution of the Semail ophiolite, and the subduction polarity structurally beneath it using 3-D P- and S-wave tomographic models integrated with global tomographic datasets, plate reconstruction frameworks, and surface geology. The results reveal a northeast-dipping high-velocity anomaly extending 250 km beneath the metamorphic sole exposed in the northern mountain range, and 150 km beneath Jebel Akhdar, which I interpret as remnants of the Neo-Tethyan slab attached to the Arabian continental margin. These observations offer a plausible explanation for the contrasting exhumation conditions between the northern and southern segments of the mountain range. In the southern region, evidence of possible slab detachment is consistent with the exhumation of high-pressure rocks, such as those exposed in the Saih Hatat Dome. This study challenges earlier hypotheses of southwest-directed subduction and strongly supports a single northeast-dipping subduction system, providing new insights into continental subduction, obduction, exhumation, and the creation of orogenic belts.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seismicity to the South of the Louisville Ridge-Tonga Trench Collision Zone: New Insight Into Processes Controlling Seismic Gaps and Subduction Erosion 路易斯维尔脊-汤加海沟碰撞带南部的地震活动性:对控制地震间隙和俯冲侵蚀过程的新认识
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030845
Yingchen Liu, Dietrich Lange, Ingo Grevemeyer
{"title":"Seismicity to the South of the Louisville Ridge-Tonga Trench Collision Zone: New Insight Into Processes Controlling Seismic Gaps and Subduction Erosion","authors":"Yingchen Liu,&nbsp;Dietrich Lange,&nbsp;Ingo Grevemeyer","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Louisville seismic gap associated with the subduction of the Louisville Ridge (LR) along the Tonga-Kermadec trench is a globally prominent feature. Due to the lack of near-field seismic monitoring, the earthquake potential and seismic behavior in this region have long been an enigma. In this study, we investigate the local earthquake activity of the Louisville seismic gap and subduction erosion using a local network of ocean-bottom seismometers. Over 6 months of offshore network deployment, our local catalog supports the existence of the Louisville seismic gap at magnitudes ranging from <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> ∼2.5 to 5.5 and reveals that the southern boundary of the seismic gap aligns well with the flexural moat of the LR. To the south of the seismic gap, seismicity distribution over the forearc shows a patchy characteristic dominated by three earthquake clusters that correspond well with morphological forearc depressions, and a deforming upper plate middle prism is revealed by upward migrated aftershock sequences, suggesting ongoing basal erosion. Seismicity reveals deformation of the outer rise along trench-parallel normal faults with focal depths ranging from 5 to 25 km, indicating a highly faulted and hydrated downgoing plate, which agrees with down-dip extensive intermediate-depth earthquakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JB030845","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Single-Asperity Friction and Wear in Seismic Faults: 1. Experiments on Marble 地震断层的单轴摩擦磨损研究:1。大理石实验
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031344
A. Clerc, G. Mollon, A. Ferrieux, L. Lafarge, A. Saulot, D. Deldique, A. Schubnel, L. Vieille
{"title":"Single-Asperity Friction and Wear in Seismic Faults: 1. Experiments on Marble","authors":"A. Clerc,&nbsp;G. Mollon,&nbsp;A. Ferrieux,&nbsp;L. Lafarge,&nbsp;A. Saulot,&nbsp;D. Deldique,&nbsp;A. Schubnel,&nbsp;L. Vieille","doi":"10.1029/2025JB031344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031344","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Common representations of seismic faults often fall into two categories. Either the model focuses on clean rough surfaces in sliding contact, or the model focuses on the gouge production and shearing between two smooth surfaces. In this work, we wish to reconcile these two main models by using tribological tools and concepts, in order to pave the way for a more accurate model of geometrically complex faults. A pin-on-disc experimental device is employed to investigate the response of a single asperity to shear sliding, in presence of granular gouge. Near co-seismic conditions are applied on Carrara marble samples (contact stress, contact area, sliding velocity) and real time acquisition sensors as well as post-mortem analyses on the contact surfaces provide qualitative and quantitative information on the frictional behavior of the downscaled lab fault. The results for moderate sliding velocity (0.01 m s<sup>−1</sup>) tests show a complex behavior. Three regimes are underlined, which highlights the interplay between granular gouge and asperities. The last regime is seen as a steady state with rough contact surfaces and the presence of a granular gouge layer. This observation leads to the conclusion that in a model for geometrically complex fault, granular gouge and asperities are not self-excluding and should be considered together. This work is complemented by a numerical model presented in a companion paper.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JB031344","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Single-Asperity Friction and Wear in Seismic Faults: 2. DEM Simulations 地震断层的单轴摩擦磨损;DEM模拟
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031345
G. Mollon, A. Clerc, A. Ferrieux, L. Lafarge, A. Saulot
{"title":"Single-Asperity Friction and Wear in Seismic Faults: 2. DEM Simulations","authors":"G. Mollon,&nbsp;A. Clerc,&nbsp;A. Ferrieux,&nbsp;L. Lafarge,&nbsp;A. Saulot","doi":"10.1029/2025JB031345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031345","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Seismic faults are rough, and their geometrical complexity is an important research topic. In this work, we present a numerical model dedicated to the simulation of friction and wear in an idealized fault asperity, taking inspiration from an experimental device used in a companion paper. The model can simulate the progressive damaging of the fault rock close to the contact, the release of fault gouge in the interface, and its circulation in the asperity and ejection from it. This allows to explore the complex interplay between a geometrical asperity and a gouge layer, in the presence of wear. Numerical results show that the asperity spontaneously evolves toward a tribological steady state in terms of friction, wear rate, roughness, and gouge thickness, in qualitative (and sometimes quantitative) agreement with experiments. We show that the existence of a geometrical asperity does not preclude the presence of a persistent gouge layer, which properties control the tribological response of the interface, and we emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanical, geometrical and rheological factors controlling its thickness.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JB031345","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
SGLOBE-Q2D: A Global 2-D Model of Fundamental and Higher Mode Rayleigh Wave Attenuation From a Large Amplitude Data Set 基于大振幅数据集的基波和高模瑞利波衰减全局二维模型
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030139
William Sturgeon, Ana M. G. Ferreira
{"title":"SGLOBE-Q2D: A Global 2-D Model of Fundamental and Higher Mode Rayleigh Wave Attenuation From a Large Amplitude Data Set","authors":"William Sturgeon,&nbsp;Ana M. G. Ferreira","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030139","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present SGLOBE-Q2D, a global upper mantle model of frequency-dependent Rayleigh wave attenuation with uncertainties. We use a data set of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>10 million fundamental and higher mode (up to 4th overtone) Rayleigh wave amplitude measurements with wave periods T<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>38–275 s. Our amplitude measurements are corrected for source and for elastic effects by (a) removing paths close to source nodal planes; (b) correcting for local receiver structure effects; and, (c) accounting for focusing/defocusing effects using a linear ray theory approximation. Extensive synthetic inversion tests are carried out that support expanding our fundamental mode maps up to spherical harmonic degree 20, which is higher than in recent global attenuation studies. We observe high attenuation anomalies beneath the oceans and low attenuation perturbations beneath the continents at T<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>40–100 s. We also observe strong low attenuation beneath all major global cratons, including a clear separation between the Congo and Kalahari cratons in South Africa, and between the East European and Siberian cratons. Comparison between SGLOBE-Q2D and associated phase velocity maps suggest a strong control of upper mantle temperature on the observed attenuation anomalies. Yet, other factors such as, for example, the presence of water, partial melt, mantle redox conditions and grain size may also play a role.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JB030139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Automatic Detection of InSAR Deformation and Tropospheric Noise Features Using Computer Vision: A Case Study Over West Texas 利用计算机视觉自动检测InSAR形变和对流层噪声特征:以西德克萨斯州为例
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB029614
Scott Staniewicz, Jingyi Chen
{"title":"Automatic Detection of InSAR Deformation and Tropospheric Noise Features Using Computer Vision: A Case Study Over West Texas","authors":"Scott Staniewicz,&nbsp;Jingyi Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024JB029614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB029614","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Automatic detection of surface deformation features from large volumes of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data is challenging because the magnitude of InSAR measurement noise varies substantially in both space and time. In this work, we present a computer vision algorithm based on Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) filtering to detect the size and location of unknown surface deformation features. Because our algorithm targets spatially coherent features, tropospheric noise artifacts with similar spatial characteristics may also be detected. To quantify the likelihood that a detected feature is a real deformation signal, we estimate the tropospheric noise spectrum directly from data, and we characterize tropospheric noise using noise simulations that resemble the actual InSAR observations. We demonstrate our algorithm using Sentinel-1 data acquired between 2014 and 2019 over the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>80,000 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mtext>km</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{km}}^{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> oil-producing Permian Basin in West Texas—one of the most productive oil fields in the world. We detect clusters of deformation features associated with oil production, wastewater injection, and fault activity. The number of detected deformation features increases substantially over the study period, which is consistent with the overall rise in oil production within the Permian Basin since 2014. Further, we show that our algorithm can detect subtle surface deformation from the 26 March 2020 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>M</mi>\u0000 <mi>W</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{M}}_{W}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 5.0 earthquake near Mentone, Texas, USA and quantify detection uncertainty. Our method is robust and flexible and can be integrated into various multi-temporal InSAR time series techniques for detecting a broad range of local deformation features.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations for the Potential Main Marmara Fault Earthquake in the Sea of Marmara Based on the Inter-Seismic Strain Accumulation 基于地震间应变积累的马尔马拉海马尔马拉主断层潜在地震三维动态破裂模拟
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB029585
Y. Korkusuz Öztürk, A. Ö. Konca, N. Meral Özel
{"title":"3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations for the Potential Main Marmara Fault Earthquake in the Sea of Marmara Based on the Inter-Seismic Strain Accumulation","authors":"Y. Korkusuz Öztürk,&nbsp;A. Ö. Konca,&nbsp;N. Meral Özel","doi":"10.1029/2024JB029585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB029585","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), poses a significant earthquake risk due to a ∼120 km seismic gap situated between the Mw7.4 1912 Ganos and Mw7.4 1999 İzmit earthquakes. We generate realistic 3D dynamic earthquake rupture scenarios on the MMF, considering the non-planar geometry and heterogeneous initial stress distributions. Initial shear stress distributions are implemented by considering strain accumulation during the interseismic period due to heterogeneous fault coupling and slip rates, and stress release due to past earthquakes constrained from historical earthquake catalogs and turbidity records. A total of 87 rupture scenarios are generated, two of which are designed to test the robustness of our simulations, by considering various possible initial stress distributions and rupture initiation points. Scenarios indicate that Kumburgaz Basin and Princes' Islands (PI) segments are likely to rupture. However, due to possible low coupling and past ruptures, the moment magnitude of the expected earthquake may not exceed Mw7.4. The rupture does not enter into the İzmit Segment (IS) due to its rupture in 1999, but it may propagate to the 1912 rupture zone toward the west due to accumulated strain since then. Peak Ground Velocities (PGV) are calculated assuming that the region's complex 3D velocity structure can be modeled as a homogeneous elastic half-space. With this caveat, high PGV values are estimated for the European coast of İstanbul due to the rupture geometry and possible directivity. This underscores the urgent need for disaster mitigation in these high-risk areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mode of Extension During the Xisha Trough Rift in the South China Sea 南海西沙海槽裂谷的伸展方式
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030564
Wenlong Wang, M. Prada, A. Cameselle, I. Grevemeyer, U. Barckhausen, Dongdong Dong, C. R. Ranero
{"title":"Mode of Extension During the Xisha Trough Rift in the South China Sea","authors":"Wenlong Wang,&nbsp;M. Prada,&nbsp;A. Cameselle,&nbsp;I. Grevemeyer,&nbsp;U. Barckhausen,&nbsp;Dongdong Dong,&nbsp;C. R. Ranero","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030564","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A seismic transect across the Xisha Trough failed rift provides information on processes active during the opening of the South China Sea (SCS). The rift basement gradually thins at the conjugate flanks from ∼25 to 15 km toward the central sector, where it abruptly thins to ∼10–6 km in thickness. The seismic velocity model supports that 6.5 km/s velocity separates an upper from a lower crust layer, where Vp reaches 7.1 km/s above Moho. The upper crust extends across the entire rift, but the lower crust layer does not occur in the thin crust of the central sector, which is underlain by mantle with anomalously low Vp, indicating serpentinization. Changes in tectonic structure mimic the Vp distribution. The rift flanks have comparatively small faults associated to gradual thinning, whereas the central sector has larger faults that possibly reach the mantle. The faulting in the central sector thus indicates whole-crust embrittlement, which possibly led to synrift mantle serpentinization. Despite the weaker rheology, serpentinized mantle did not result in the development of low-angle faulting or continental break-up. Furthermore, the rift overall thinning and faulting structure is asymmetric with respect to the rift center, supporting an initial widespread moderate extension creating the flanks. When extension thinned the crust to &lt;15 km, the whole crust was brittle and deformation first focused and subsequently laterally migrated to create the central sector. The continental Xisha Trough rift evolution is similar to classical magma-poor margins, but synrift magmatism described in adjacent regions indicate abrupt segmentation of the rift system.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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