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Connectedness and risk spillover in China's commodity futures sectors 中国商品期货行业的关联性和风险溢出效应
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22489
Jun Long, Xianghui Yuan, Liwei Jin, Chencheng Zhao
{"title":"Connectedness and risk spillover in China's commodity futures sectors","authors":"Jun Long,&nbsp;Xianghui Yuan,&nbsp;Liwei Jin,&nbsp;Chencheng Zhao","doi":"10.1002/fut.22489","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22489","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study employs minimum spanning tree and generalized forecast error variance decomposition methods to investigate the connectedness and risk spillovers across China's commodity sectors from January 2016 to December 2021. The results show that total connectedness within the commodity system is time varying. Chemical is the main risk driver, while other sectors occasionally dominate the system. These two methods achieve consistent results in identifying the systemically important sector and dynamic connectedness. In addition, we find that Chinese economic policy uncertainty and the investor sentiment index have significant impacts on total connectedness. Our findings have implications for preventing systemic risk for policymakers and managing commodity portfolio risk for investors.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 5","pages":"784-802"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140445860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risky times: Seasonality and event risk of commodities 风险时代：商品的季节性和事件风险
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22492
Dominik Boos
{"title":"Risky times: Seasonality and event risk of commodities","authors":"Dominik Boos","doi":"10.1002/fut.22492","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22492","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The seasonal risk of wheat, corn, and soybean is modeled by a novel seasonality filter based on a generalized ridge regression. Then, using a component GARCH model, seasonal risk is combined with event risk and a short-term risk dynamics. The resulting model is robust, generates seasonal patterns related to the crop cycle, and significantly outperforms the standard GARCH(1,1) in terms of out-of-sample risk prediction. Results are relevant for risk management and portfolio construction.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 5","pages":"767-783"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fut.22492","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139948772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market sentiment and price dynamics in weak markets: A comprehensive empirical analysis of the soybean meal option market 弱市中的市场情绪和价格动态：豆粕期权市场的综合实证分析
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22490
Bo Yan, Mengru Liang, Yinxin Zhao
{"title":"Market sentiment and price dynamics in weak markets: A comprehensive empirical analysis of the soybean meal option market","authors":"Bo Yan,&nbsp;Mengru Liang,&nbsp;Yinxin Zhao","doi":"10.1002/fut.22490","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22490","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study addresses key issues of market efficiency in weak global futures markets, focusing on the intricate relationship between market sentiment and options pricing. Employing rolling variance ratio tests and information-sharing models for market dynamics analysis, and supplemented with Granger causality tests and impulse response findings, it reveals a significant, unidirectional impact of market sentiment on options pricing, especially during periods of heightened sentiment. These insights underscore the importance of considering time dynamics in market behavior analysis, offering a novel perspective on futures and options market understanding.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 5","pages":"744-766"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139919563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early exercise, implied volatility spread and future stock return: Jumps bind them all 提前行使、隐含波动率差和未来股票回报率：跳跃束缚一切
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22491
Ian Garrett, Adnan Gazi
{"title":"Early exercise, implied volatility spread and future stock return: Jumps bind them all","authors":"Ian Garrett,&nbsp;Adnan Gazi","doi":"10.1002/fut.22491","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22491","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We find that early exercise premiums of exchange-traded single-stock American puts, in excess of the GBM-world premium, can negatively predict future stock returns. Simulations suggest that asset-value jumps, especially the mean jump-size, can positively drive this excess premium, while jump-size can also negatively induce the implied volatility (IV) spread of equivalent American option-pairs. Empirically, controlling for the effect of jump-size in excess premiums, the premium loses its predictive power. Furthermore, controlling for the excess premium or jump-size, IV spreads' predictability shown in the literature also diminishes. Our evidence survives under alternative explanations like informed trading, stock mispricing or market frictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 5","pages":"720-743"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139919564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Journal of Futures Markets: Volume 44, Number 3, March 2024 期货市场期刊》：第 44 卷第 3 号，2024 年 3 月
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-11 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22429
{"title":"Journal of Futures Markets: Volume 44, Number 3, March 2024","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/fut.22429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22429","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 3","pages":"341"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fut.22429","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139720057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The time-varying volatility spillover effects between China's coal and metal market 中国煤炭和金属市场之间的时变波动溢出效应
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22488
Boqiang Lin, Tianxu Lan
{"title":"The time-varying volatility spillover effects between China's coal and metal market","authors":"Boqiang Lin,&nbsp;Tianxu Lan","doi":"10.1002/fut.22488","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22488","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression methodology with the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index to scrutinize the temporal fluctuations in volatility spillovers between the Chinese coal and metal markets. The analysis is conducted from the dual perspectives of security indices and futures prices. The findings reveal a robust correlation between the coal and metal markets, with the coal market serving as a primary conduit for volatility spillover into the metal market. Furthermore, this study investigates the time-specific impacts of coal decommissioning policies, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the coal supply crisis on the coal–metal market volatility spillovers. The findings indicate that these three unique shocks significantly increase the overall risk spillover index between the coal and metal markets. Moreover, during these exceptional events, the extent or role of risk spillover in the coal–metal market undergoes varying degrees of change. On the basis of these findings, this article presents pertinent policy recommendations.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 5","pages":"699-719"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139806341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Bitcoin price and Bitcoin price uncertainty: Evidence of Bitcoin price volatility 比特币价格和比特币价格的不确定性：比特币价格波动的证据
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22487
Nezir Köse, Hakan Yildirim, Emre Ünal, Boqiang Lin
{"title":"The Bitcoin price and Bitcoin price uncertainty: Evidence of Bitcoin price volatility","authors":"Nezir Köse,&nbsp;Hakan Yildirim,&nbsp;Emre Ünal,&nbsp;Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1002/fut.22487","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22487","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the Bitcoin price by taking into account global factors, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Market Volatility Index (VIX), the US dollar index, the gold price, the oil price, and Bitcoin price volatility. The analysis is conducted using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The variance decomposition findings revealed that the influence of the VIX on the Bitcoin price was initially restricted, but progressively intensified over time. Among the indicators, Bitcoin price volatility had the highest explanatory share in both daily and weekly data analysis. The impulse response functions demonstrated a statistically significant inverse relationship between the VIX and the Bitcoin price. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that the Bitcoin price was mostly impacted by its own volatility. This implies that investing in Bitcoin requires a certain level of risk-taking.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 4","pages":"673-695"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139686357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hedging securities and Silicon Valley Bank idiosyncrasies 对冲证券和硅谷银行的特质
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22486
Raymond Kim
{"title":"Hedging securities and Silicon Valley Bank idiosyncrasies","authors":"Raymond Kim","doi":"10.1002/fut.22486","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22486","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hedging requires adequacy and timing. This paper finds that banks did not systematically ignore balance-sheet risks like Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and instead exercised risk management by asymmetrically increasing hedging activity when security losses increase and scaling back hedging activity as security losses reverse. Banks also hedge against bank runs when risk increases due to a combination of security losses and funding risks from unsecured deposits. Findings suggest SVB's mistakes are idiosyncratic. Results suggest that nonstress test banks target balance-sheet risks when hedging, stabilizing themselves from interest rate shocks transmitted through fixed-income securities. Scrutiny of rules-based outliers like SVB is preferable to increased regulatory burden for all nonstress test banks.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 4","pages":"653-672"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139767127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The convenience yield under commodity financialization 商品金融化下的便利收益率
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22485
Nikolaos T. Milonas, Evangelia K. Photina
{"title":"The convenience yield under commodity financialization","authors":"Nikolaos T. Milonas,&nbsp;Evangelia K. Photina","doi":"10.1002/fut.22485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22485","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A number of papers have dealt with commodity financialization finding strong evidence for its existence and its effect on commodity prices and volatility. We chose convenience yield (CY) to study the effect of commodity financialization based on the theory of storage and on the argument that CY resembles a call option. Using quarterly data in the period 1995–2018, on soybeans stocks, cash and futures prices, a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag with Exogenous model is estimated to measure the effects of independent variables from both the financial and commodity markets on CY. The evidence reveals that financial markets volatility along macroeconomic global variables affect soybeans CY giving support to the existence of commodity financialization. Besides, we find a statistically significant and negative relation between volatility index and CY. Support for this evidence rests on the theory of storage, Real Option Analysis, and behavioral finance.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 4","pages":"631-652"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140031853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Short-term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets 黑海谷物倡议对四个谷物市场的短期市场影响
IF 1.9 4区 经济学
Journal of Futures Markets Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1002/fut.22481
António Miguel Martins
{"title":"Short-term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets","authors":"António Miguel Martins","doi":"10.1002/fut.22481","DOIUrl":"10.1002/fut.22481","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the short-term market reaction of four agricultural commodities to the Russian–Ukraine war and various stages of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement. Using an event study, the results show a positive abnormal return for the agricultural grain markets with the outbreak of the war and the nonrenewal of the Black Sea Grain Agreement. These two events by causing supply-side constraints, led to an increase in the price of grains. The results also show negative and statistically significant abnormal returns around the signing of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, its implementation through the departure of the first ship loaded with Ukrainian grain after the beginning of the war and the successive extensions of the agreement. These disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also have critical implications for world food security. Policy implications of our findings are provided.</p>","PeriodicalId":15863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Markets","volume":"44 4","pages":"619-630"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139517185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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