{"title":"The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle","authors":"Christian Gollier","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and its associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. Under the Hotelling’s rule without uncertainty, the growth rate of this price should be equal to the interest rate. It is therefore a puzzle that many cost-efficiency IAM models yield carbon prices that increase at an average real growth rate above 7% per year, a very large return for traders of carbon assets. I explore whether uncertainties surrounding the development of green technologies could solve this puzzle. I show that future marginal abatement costs and aggregate consumption are positively correlated. This justifies doing less for climate change than in the safe case, implying a smaller initial carbon price, and an expected growth rate of carbon price that is larger than the interest rate. In the benchmark calibration of my model, I obtain an equilibrium interest rate around 1% and an expected growth rate of carbon price around 3.5%, yielding an optimal carbon price above 200 USD/tCO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> within the next few years. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to cost-efficiency carbon pricing implies a large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint. I show that green investors should be compensated for this risk by a large risk premium embedded in the growth rate of expected carbon prices, rather than by a collar on carbon prices as often recommended.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103062"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069624001360/pdfft?md5=eaee85a73908226d0c9fbd60902405aa&pid=1-s2.0-S0095069624001360-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Resource dependence, recycling, and trade","authors":"Peter H. Egger , Christian Keuschnigg","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recycling waste from used goods can substitute for scarce virgin materials and reduce resource dependence. We present a model of waste collection, recycling, and final goods production using virgin and recycled materials. Environmentally safe disposal of trash (non-recycled waste) requires costly processing by landfill and burning which creates externalities. Trade between resource poor and resource rich countries involves non-trivial interactions between terms of trade effects and distortions in recycling and resource extraction. We analyze welfare improving policy intervention with local trash disposal and with trade in trash.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103064"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142419275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carbon market design and market sentiment","authors":"Grischa Perino","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Concerns about systematic price distortions in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) have risen in recent years. This paper shows how carbon-market design affects the impact of market sentiment, i.e. systematic deviations of price expectations from fundamentals by at least some market participants, on equilibrium prices. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) of the EU ETS that adjusts supply based on past allowance banking undermines self-stabilization of the carbon market by discouraging rational intertemporal arbitrage. The MSR increases vulnerability of the EU ETS to market sentiments. Initially, the allowance price responds more to distorted expectations while the MSR (partially) prevents the distortion to spread across periods. Making the MSR more responsive to banking decisions increases the likelihood that distorted expectations turn out to be correct ex post. In contrast, a mechanism that adjust the cap based on the current allowance price does not face a trade off between stabilizing prices in the present and the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103057"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069624001311/pdfft?md5=638cfae0ea37b21c06d089ce5df7ce2d&pid=1-s2.0-S0095069624001311-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of extreme temperatures on evictions","authors":"Dylan Brewer, Sarah Goldgar","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data on evictions in the United States, we estimate the relationship between temperature and eviction filings. We find that extreme heat days result in a statistically significant increase in filings, while extreme cold days do not have the same relationship. To explain these findings, we show that residential energy expenditures are more sensitive to extreme heat than extreme cold, and that energy assistance programs in the United States prioritize funding for heating rather than cooling. These findings suggest that relative to today, future climate change scenarios with more hot days and fewer cold days will increase eviction filings without other policy or private adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103055"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The more the better? Synergies of prosocial interventions and effects on behavioural spillovers","authors":"Marius Alt , Hendrik Bruns , Nives Della Valle","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Incentivising prosocial and pro-environmental behaviours is a sensitive endeavour. While behavioural change is urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of climate change, monetary interventions often have negative side effects. Such interventions are prone to motivation crowding, which can impede lasting positive behavioural change and stimulate negative temporal spillovers to other prosocial behaviours. In this study, we investigate whether implementing monetary interventions as part of policy mixes can mitigate these negative side effects. In an online experiment involving 3782 participants, we test whether the use of nudges that make personal and social norms salient can counteract the motivation-crowding effect and explore the effects of such policy mixes on temporal spillovers. We find that policy mixes of norm-based nudges and monetary incentives are more effective at stimulating engagement in targeted prosocial behaviour than no intervention when controlling for sample characteristics. Analysing the temporal spillover effects of these interventions reveals that policy mixes can alleviate the tendency of monetary incentives to negatively affect subsequent prosocial behaviour. This indicates that norm-based nudges are suitable complements to monetary interventions, facilitating long-lasting positive effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103061"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do time-of-use prices deliver energy savings at the right time?","authors":"Zheng Fu , Kevin Novan , Aaron Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Time-of-use (TOU) electricity prices are increasingly being adopted to reduce consumption during the higher marginal cost afternoon hours. There is ample evidence that TOU rates reduce average consumption during the peak price hours of the day, but it is unknown how these energy savings are distributed across days. Using a unique dataset from households with smart thermostats, we find that adopting TOU rates causes large decreases in peak period AC usage, resulting in energy savings that are concentrated on the hottest, highest demand days when the benefits of conservation are the greatest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103054"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transmission of flood damage to the real economy and financial intermediation: Simulation analysis using a DSGE model","authors":"Ryuichiro Hashimoto , Nao Sudo","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We assess physical risk associated with floods in Japan, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We construct a model that incorporates transmission mechanism of floods and estimate the model using the data of flood-induced damage to capital stock and public infrastructure collected by the government in the last 40 years. The result of the analysis is threefold. First, a flood that reduces the private capital stock by about 0.1% as a direct effect causes GDP to fall by about 0.1% in the first period, with a gradual recovery to pre-flood level. Second, floods dampen GDP through multiple channels. From the supply side, a decline in capital stock inputs and total factor productivity (TFP) reduce GDP. From the demand side, the balance sheets of firms and financial intermediaries are impaired, resulting in disruptions to financial intermediation and depressing GDP. Based on our estimates, all these channels are quantitatively comparable in magnitude. Third, the quantitative impacts of flood shocks on GDP up to now have been minor compared to the standard structural shocks that are considered important in existing macroeconomic studies. However, according to the estimates that use the relationship between the key variables in our model together with climate change scenarios published by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the impacts of these shocks could become somewhat larger in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103058"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do green parties affect local waste management policies?","authors":"Augusto Cerqua , Nadia Fiorino , Emma Galli","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We explore whether mayors supported by pro-environmental parties enhance local environmental outcomes compared to their non-environmental counterparts. We study close elections within a regression discontinuity design and find a notable rise in recycling rates in Italian municipalities governed by pro-environmental coalitions. This uptick becomes far less pronounced when adopting broader criteria to define green mayoral candidates. Crucially, the enhanced recycling rates are not realized through augmented budgets for environmental initiatives or waste collection, but rather are primarily attributed to the implementation of local policies, such as on-call waste collection and the establishment of waste collection centers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009506962400130X/pdfft?md5=e0af604da4e18aeb33a1cf79a9220003&pid=1-s2.0-S009506962400130X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142272241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition","authors":"François Bareille , Raja Chakir , Charles Regnacq","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper improves our understanding of how rainwater impacts economic growth by investigating the effects of overlooked properties of the water cycle. First, we consider the natural separation of rainwater into <em>flows</em> of <em>blue water</em> (i.e., the water that runs off towards rivers) and <em>green water</em> (i.e., that remaining in the soil). Second, we account for the presence of surface and groundwater <em>stocks</em>. These considerations allow us to comprehensively address the whole partition of rainwater, which, upon reaching the ground, splits into distinct water resources that determine water availability inland. Our analyses on a global panel coupling sub-national economic and hydrological data show that rainwater does increase growth, but do so differently depending on its partition. Specifically, blue water leads to more economic growth than green water at the margin, but, because two thirds of terrestrial water is green, the latter contributes more to growth in total. By missing this crucial partition, we find that commonly used rainwater measurements overstate rainwater’s contribution to growth (by about two). Our analyses further indicate that, although groundwater reserves always mitigate the impacts of rainwater reduction on growth, surface water reserves sometimes amplify regional dependence to rainwater (depending on sector, income and reserve types).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103047"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Environmental protection for bureaucratic promotion: Water quality performance review of provincial governors in China","authors":"Liguo Lin , Wei Sun , Jinhua Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show including quantitative environmental targets for bureaucratic promotion incentivizes government officials to enforce environmental regulation but at significant economic costs. Taking advantage of the gradual expansion of China's water quality performance review (WQPR) over time and space, we find that WQPR significantly reduced ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants, digestive cancer mortality, and GDP growth rate. WQPR's effects are more pronounced along provincial borders, which are targeted by WQPR, and when provincial governors have more promotion potential. An important mechanism is investment in wastewater treatment facilities. There is evidence that WQPR passed the benefit-cost test, especially in rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 103060"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}