{"title":"Diagnosing seasonal forecast skill of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode using model-analogs","authors":"Yanling Wu, Youmin Tang","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0106.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0106.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000A retrospective tropical Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) hindcast for 1958–2014 was conducted using 20 models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a model-based analog forecast (MAF) method. In the MAF approach, forecast ensembles are extracted from preexisting model simulations by finding the states that initially best match an observed anomaly and tracking their subsequent evolution, with no additional model integrations. By optimizing the key factors in the MAF method, we suggest that the optimal do main for the analog criteria should be concentrated in the tropical Indian Ocean region for IOD predictions. Including external forcing trends improves the skills of the east and west poles of the IOD, but not the IOD prediction itself. The MAF IOD prediction showed comparable skills to the assimilation-initialized hindcast, with skillful predictions corresponding to a 4- and 3-month lead respectively. The IOD forecast skills had significant decadal variations during the 55-year period, with low skills after the early 2000s and before 1985 and high skills during 1985–2000. This work offers a computational efficiency and practical approach for seasonal prediction of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46987576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Chamberlain, L. Talley, B. Cornuelle, M. Mazloff, S. Gille
{"title":"Optimizing The Biogeochemical Argo Float Distribution","authors":"P. Chamberlain, L. Talley, B. Cornuelle, M. Mazloff, S. Gille","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0093.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0093.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The core Argo array has operated with the design goal of uniform spatial distribution of 3° in latitude and longitude. Recent studies have acknowledged that spatial and temporal scales of variability in some parts of the ocean are not resolved by 3° sampling and have recommended increased core Argo density in the equatorial region, boundary currents, and marginal seas with an integrated vision of other Argo variants. Biogeochemical (BGC) Argo floats currently observe the ocean from a collection of pilot arrays, but recently funded proposals will transition these pilot arrays to a global array. The current BGC Argo implementation plan recommends uniform spatial distribution of BGC Argo floats. For the first time, we estimate the effectiveness of the existing BGC Argo array to resolve the anomaly from the mean using a subset of modeled, full-depth BGC fields. We also study the effectiveness of uniformly-distributed BGC Argo arrays with varying float densities at observing the ocean. Then, using previous Argo trajectories, we estimate the Argo array’s future distribution and quantify how well it observes the ocean. Finally, using a novel technique for sequentially identifying the best deployment locations, we suggest the optimal array distribution for BGC Argo floats to minimize objective mapping uncertainty in a subset of BGC fields and to best constrain BGC temporal variability.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42856665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corrections for Geostationary Cloud Liquid Water Path Using Microwave Imagery","authors":"K. Smalley, M. Lebsock","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-23-0030.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-23-0030.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Geostationary observations provide measurements of the cloud liquid water path (LWP), permitting continuous observation of cloud evolution throughout the daylit portion of the diurnal cycle. Relative to LWP derived from microwave imagery, these observations have biases related to scattering geometry, which systematically varies throughout the day. Therefore, we have developed a set of bias corrections using microwave LWP for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16 and GOES-17) observations of LWP derived from retrieved cloud-optical properties. The bias corrections are defined based on scattering geometry (solar zenith, sensor zenith, and relative azimuth) and low-cloud fraction. We demonstrate that over the low-cloud regions of the northeast and southeast Pacific, these bias corrections drastically improve the characteristics of the retrieved LWP, including its regional distribution, diurnal variation, and evolution along short-time-scale Lagrangian trajectories.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49437836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Geyer, G. Gopalakrishnan, H. Sagen, B. Cornuelle, F. Challet, M. Mazloff
{"title":"Data assimilation of range-and-depth-averaged sound speed from acoustic tomography measurements in Fram Strait","authors":"F. Geyer, G. Gopalakrishnan, H. Sagen, B. Cornuelle, F. Challet, M. Mazloff","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0132.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0132.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The 2010-2012 Acoustic Technology for Observing the Interior of the Arctic Ocean (ACOBAR) experiment provided acoustic tomography data along three 167-301 km long sections in Fram Strait between Greenland and Spitsbergen. Ocean sound speed data were assimilated into a regional numerical ocean model using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model-Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean four-dimensional variational (MITgcm-ECCO 4DVAR) assimilation system. The resulting state estimate matched the assimilated sound speed time series, the root mean squared (RMS) error of the sound speed estimate (~0.4 m s−1) is smaller than the uncertainty of the measurement (~0.8 m s−1). Data assimilation improved modeled range-and-depth-averaged ocean temperatures at the 78°50’N oceanographic mooring section in Fram Strait. The RMS error of the state estimate (0.21°C) is comparable to the uncertainty of the interpolated mooring section (0.23°C). Lack of depth information in the assimilated ocean sound speed measurements caused an increased temperature bias in the upper ocean (0-500 m). The correlations with the mooring section were not improved as short-term variations in the mooring measurements and the ocean state estimate do not always coincide in time. This is likely due to the small-scale eddying and non-linearity of the ocean circulation in Fram Strait. Furthermore, the horizontal resolution of the state estimate (4.5 km) is eddy-permitting, rather than eddy resolving. Thus, the state estimate cannot represent the full ocean dynamics of the region. This study is the first to demonstrate the usefulness of large-scale acoustic measurements for improving ocean state estimates at high latitudes.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47874836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Durden, R. Beauchamp, S. Graniello, V. Venkatesh, S. Tanelli
{"title":"DPCA-Based Doppler Radar Measurements from Space: Effect of System Errors on Velocity Estimation Performance","authors":"S. Durden, R. Beauchamp, S. Graniello, V. Venkatesh, S. Tanelli","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0048.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0048.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The displaced phased center antenna (DPCA) method of clutter cancellation for ground moving target detection from airborne platforms has been in use for a number of decades. Application of the DPCA method for spaceborne Doppler weather radar velocity estimation was suggested in 2007. The initial description and analysis of the technique was followed several years ago by demonstration using a multiantenna airborne radar. Recent reviews of methods and technology for spaceborne cloud and precipitation radar have also mentioned possible use of DPCA. However, to date, analyses of the application of DPCA to spaceborne Doppler weather radar have assumed that the two channels and antennas are identical, including perfect alignment, and that the DPCA condition is well-satisfied. This study uses simulation to examine the effects of relaxing these assumptions. The simulation method and its validation are discussed, with companion analytical calculations in the appendix. Next, simulations are used to show the effects on the Doppler estimates from errors in pointing and positioning relative to the ideal DPCA. The DPCA technique is relatively robust to possible errors, indicating that a practical DPCA radar system can provide precise Doppler measurements from space.\u0000\u0000\u0000Analytical and simulation results show that the displaced phase center antenna approach can enable spaceborne atmospheric Doppler radar measurements with good accuracy, even in the presence of antenna mispointing and other system errors.\u0000","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46894986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Detection of rain in tropical cyclones by underwater ambient sound","authors":"Zhong‐Kuo Zhao, E. D’Asaro","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0078.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0078.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Rain in tropical cyclones is studied using eight time series of underwater ambient sound at 40 Hz–50 kHz with wind speeds up to 45ms−1 beneath three tropical cyclones. At tropical cyclone wind speeds, rain- and wind-generated sound levels are comparable, so that rain cannot be detected by sound level alone. A rain detection algorithm based on the variations of 5–30 kHz sound levels with periods longer than 20 seconds and shorter than 30 minutes is proposed. Faster fluctuations (<20 s) are primarily due to wave breaking, and slower ones (>30 min) due to overall wind variations. Higher frequency sound (>30 kHz) is strongly attenuated by bubble clouds. This approach is supported by observations that, for wind speeds <40 m s−1, the variation in sound level is much larger than that expected from observed wind variations, and roughly comparable with that expected from rain variations. The hydrophone results are consistent with rain estimates by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and with Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) and radar estimates by surveillance flights. The observations indicate that the rain-generated sound fluctuations have broadband acoustic spectra centered around 10 kHz. Acoustically detected rain events usually last for a few minutes. The data used in this study are insufficient to produce useful estimation of rain rate from ambient sound, due to limited quantity and accuracy of the validation data. The frequency dependence of sound variations suggests that quantitative rainfall algorithms from ambient sound may be developed using multiple sound frequencies.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41514512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Chamberlain, L. Talley, M. Mazloff, E. van Sebille, S. Gille, T. tucker, M. Scanderbeg, Pelle E. Robbins
{"title":"Using existing Argo trajectories to statistically predict future float positions with a transition matrix","authors":"P. Chamberlain, L. Talley, M. Mazloff, E. van Sebille, S. Gille, T. tucker, M. Scanderbeg, Pelle E. Robbins","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0070.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0070.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The Argo array provides nearly 4000 temperature and salinity profiles of the top 2000 meters of the ocean every 10 days. Still, Argo floats will never be able to measure the ocean at all times, everywhere. Optimized Argo float distributions should match the spatial and temporal variability of the many societally important ocean features that they observe. Determining these distributions is challenging because float advection is difficult to predict. Using no external models, transition matrices based on existing Argo trajectories provide statistical inferences about Argo float motion. We use the 24 years of Argo locations to construct an optimal transition matrix that minimizes estimation bias and uncertainty. The optimal array is determined to have a 2°×2° spatial resolution with a 90 day timestep. We then use the transition matrix to predict the probability of future float locations of the Core Argo array, the Global Biogeochemical Array, and the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) array. A comparison of transition matrices derived from floats using Argos System and Iridium communication methods shows the impact of surface displacements, which is most apparent near the equator. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of transition matrices for validating models by comparing the matrix derived from Argo floats with that derived from a particle release experiment in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE).","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42785393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Privé, M. McLinden, B. Lin, I. Moradi, M. Sienkiewicz, G. Heymsfield, W. McCarty
{"title":"Impacts of marine surface pressure observations from a spaceborne differential absorption radar investigated with an observing system simulation experiment","authors":"N. Privé, M. McLinden, B. Lin, I. Moradi, M. Sienkiewicz, G. Heymsfield, W. McCarty","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0088.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0088.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000A new instrument has been proposed for measuring surface air pressure over the marine surface with a combined active/passive scanning multi-channel differential absorption radar (DAR) to provide an estimate of the total atmospheric column oxygen content. A demonstrator instrument, the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS), has been funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for airborne test missions. Here, a proof-of-concept study to evaluate the potential impact of spaceborne surface pressure data on numerical weather prediction is performed using the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework. This OSSE framework employs the Goddard Earth Observing System model and the hybrid 4D ensemble variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system.\u0000Multiple flight and scanning configurations of potential spaceborne orbits are examined. Swath width and observation spacing for the surface pressure data are varied to explore a range of sampling strategies. For wider swaths, the addition of surface pressures reduces the root mean square surface pressure analysis error by as much as 20% over some ocean regions. The forecast sensitivity observation impact tool estimates impacts on the Pacific Ocean basin boundary layer 24-hour forecast temperatures for spaceborne surface pressures on par with rawinsondes and aircraft, and greater impacts than the current network of ships and buoys. The largest forecast impacts are found in the southern hemisphere extratropics.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41691415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Hirose, Keita Okada, Kohei Kawaguchi, N. Takahashi
{"title":"Removing interfering signals in spaceborne radar data for precipitation detection at very high altitudes","authors":"M. Hirose, Keita Okada, Kohei Kawaguchi, N. Takahashi","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0114.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0114.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study investigated the effects of interfering signals on high-altitude precipitation extraction from spaceborne precipitation radar data. Data analyses were performed on the products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM DPR) to clarify the effects of removing radio interferences and mirror images, particularly focusing on deep precipitation detection. The TRMM PR acquired precipitation data up to an altitude of approximately 20 km and occasionally captured interferences from artificial radio transmissions in specific areas. Artifacts could be distinguished as isolated profiles exhibiting almost constant radar reflectivity. The number of interferences affecting the TRMM PR gradually increased during the operation period of 1998–2013. A filter was introduced to separate the observed profiles into deep storms that reach the upper observation altitude and contamination caused by radio interference. The former frequently appeared over the Sahel area, where the observation upper limits are lowest. The removal of the latter, radio interference, improved the detection accuracy of the mean precipitation at high altitudes and considerably influenced specific low-precipitation areas such as the Middle East. This spatial feature-based filter allowed us to evaluate the results of screening based on noise limits that are implemented in standard algorithms. The GPM DPR Ku-band radar product contained other unwanted echoes due to the mirror images appearing as second-trip echoes contaminating the high-altitude statistics. Such second-trip echoes constitute a major portion of the echoes observed near the highest altitudes of deep storms.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46258595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Cao, Zheng Guo, Shuya Wang, Xinyu Guo, Jinbao Song
{"title":"Numerical evaluation of internal tide characteristics extracted from mobile float observations: A case study near the Luzon Strait","authors":"A. Cao, Zheng Guo, Shuya Wang, Xinyu Guo, Jinbao Song","doi":"10.1175/jtech-d-22-0116.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-22-0116.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000With the development of ocean observation technology, data from specially-designed mobile profiling floats have been used to study the internal tides (ITs). However, the accuracy of IT characteristics extracted from such observations has not been fully evaluated. Based on numerical simulations of ITs and background circulation with hundreds of free-moving floats near the Luzon Strait, this study examines the IT characteristics extracted from the float observations based on statistics. For the case in which only the M2 constituent is considered, the lowest error level of extracted M2 temperature fluctuation amplitudes (TFAs) is 40−50%, which appears at 200−1500 m depth. Increasing the sampling frequency of the float from daily to hourly does not decrease the lowest error level. The quasi-daily sampling and other tidal constituents also have an impact on the extracted M2 TFAs and increase their errors. The different patterns of background currents mainly influence the errors of extracted M2 TFAs in the upper 200 m. The relation between TFA and vertical displacement of ITs and the two error sources of the TFA extracted from float observations are discussed in this study.","PeriodicalId":15074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49490911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}