R. Nolan, Rebecca K. Gibson, B. Cirulis, Brendan Holyland, Stephanie A. Samson, Meaghan Jenkins, Trent Penman, Matthias M. Boer
{"title":"Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest","authors":"R. Nolan, Rebecca K. Gibson, B. Cirulis, Brendan Holyland, Stephanie A. Samson, Meaghan Jenkins, Trent Penman, Matthias M. Boer","doi":"10.1071/wf22179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf22179","url":null,"abstract":"Background Simulations of fire spread are vital for operational fire management and strategic risk planning. Aims To quantify burn heterogeneity effects on post-fire fuel loads, and test whether modifying fuel load estimates based on the fire severity and patchiness of the last fire improves the accuracy of simulations of subsequent fires. Methods We (1) measured fine fuels in eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia following fires of differing severity; (2) modified post-fire fuel accumulation estimates based on our results; and (3) ran different fire simulations for a case-study area which was subject to a planned hazard reduction burn followed by a wildfire shortly thereafter. Key results Increasing fire severity resulted in increased reduction in bark fuels. In contrast, surface and elevated fuels were reduced by similar amounts following both low-moderate and high-extreme fire severity. Accounting for burn heterogeneity, and fire severity effects on bark, improved the accuracy of fire spread for a case study fire. Conclusions Integration of burn heterogeneity into post-burn fuel load estimates may substantially improve fire behaviour predictions. Implications Without accounting for burn heterogeneity, patchy burns of low severity may mean that risk estimations are incorrect. This has implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of planned burn programmes.","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140237799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pyros: a raster–vector spatial simulation model for predicting wildland surface fire spread and growth","authors":"Debora Voltolina, Giacomo Cappellini, Tiziana Apuani, Simone Sterlacchini","doi":"10.1071/wf22142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf22142","url":null,"abstract":"Background Euro–Mediterranean regions are expected to undergo a climate-induced exacerbation of fire activity in the upcoming decades. Reliable predictions of fire behaviour represent an essential instrument for planning and optimising fire management actions and strategies. Aims The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the performance of an agent-based spatial simulation model for predicting wildland surface fire spread and growth. Methods The model integrates Rothermel’s equations to obtain fire spread metrics and uses a hybrid raster–vector implementation to predict patterns of fire growth. The model performance is evaluated in quantitative terms of spatiotemporal agreement between predicted patterns of fire growth and reference patterns, under both ideal and real-world environmental conditions, using case studies in Sardinia, Italy. Key results Predicted patterns of fire growth demonstrate negligible distortions under ideal conditions when compared with circular or elliptical reference patterns. In real-world heterogeneous conditions, a substantial agreement between observed and predicted patterns is achieved, resulting in a similarity coefficient of up to 0.76. Conclusions Outcomes suggest that the model exhibits promising performance with low computational requirements. Implications Assuming that parametric uncertainty is effectively managed and a rigorous validation encompassing additional case studies from Euro–Mediterranean regions is conducted, the model has the potential to provide a valuable contribution to operational fire management applications.","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140256944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An escape route planning model based on wildfire prediction information and travel rate of firefighters","authors":"Junhao Sheng, Xingdong Li, Xinyu Wang, Yangwei Wang, Sanping Li, Dandan Li, Shufa Sun, Lijun Zhao","doi":"10.1071/wf23166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23166","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>When firefighters evacuate from wildfires, escape routes are crucial safety measures, providing pre-defined pathways to a safety zone. Their key evaluation criterion is the time it takes for firefighters to travel along the planned escape routes.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>While shorter travel times can help firefighters reach safety zones faster, this may expose them to the threat of wildfires. Therefore, the safety of the routes must be considered.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We introduced a new evaluation indicator called the safety index by predicting the growth trend of wildfires. We then proposed a comprehensive evaluation cost function as an escape route planning model, which includes two factors: (1) travel time; and (2) safety of the escape route. The relationship between the two factors is dynamically adjusted through real time factor. The safety window within real time factor provides ideal safety margins between firefighters and wildfires, ensuring the overall safety of escape routes.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Compared with other models, the escape routes planned by the final improved model not only effectively avoid wildfires, but also provide relatively short travel time and reliable safety.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>This study ensures sufficient safety margins for firefighters escaping in wildfire environments.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The escape route model described in this study offers a broader perspective on the study of escape route planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140054850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Florencia Tiribelli, Juan Paritsis, Iván Barberá, Thomas Kitzberger
{"title":"Spatial and temporal opportunities for forest resilience promoted by burn severity attenuation across a productivity gradient in north western Patagonia","authors":"Florencia Tiribelli, Juan Paritsis, Iván Barberá, Thomas Kitzberger","doi":"10.1071/wf23098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23098","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Fire regimes in many biomass-rich ecosystems worldwide are dominated by high-severity fires. Many of these systems lack fire-resistant traits or post-fire regeneration strategies. Understanding under which environmental and weather conditions they experience less severe fire is crucial for maintaining their persistence in the landscape.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>Understand the spatial and temporal conditions that allow burn severity attenuation across Patagonia’s productivity gradient.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We modelled burn severity as a function of topography, weather, vegetation and productivity.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Low severity was a rare phenomenon, affecting only 8% of the areas burned. The probability of burning with high severity followed a hump-shaped relationship with productivity. Low severity occurred in fires that burned under cool and wet summer conditions in areas with sparser fuels or in wetter and more productive environments but with discontinuous and wet fuels.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Across the regional gradient, ecosystems of intermediate productivity generally lack conditions for low burn severity. Temporally, low burn severity occurs in smaller fires burning in productive ecosystems during cool and wet summers.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Future climate scenarios of increasing aridity and temperature in the region will disfavour conditions for low burn severity, thus promoting fire-mediated transitions from forests to alternative states dominated by more fire-adapted flammable species (e.g. shrublands).</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139689322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Philip Gibbons, Dejan Stojanovic, David B. Lindenmayer, Giselle Owens
{"title":"Impacts of changing fire regimes on hollow-bearing trees in south-eastern Australia","authors":"Philip Gibbons, Dejan Stojanovic, David B. Lindenmayer, Giselle Owens","doi":"10.1071/wf23094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23094","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Many species use hollows or cavities that form in trees. The effect of an increasing fire frequency on hollow-bearing trees is unclear.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>To predict the effects of increasing fire frequency on the abundance of hollow-bearing trees and identify how to make forests more resilient to these changes.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We simulated how increasing fire frequency will affect the abundance of hollow-bearing trees in forests of south-eastern Australia and conducted a sensitivity analysis to identify which variables affect these predictions.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Other things being equal, we found a negative relationship between the number of hollow-bearing trees and increasing fire frequency. However, we identified scenarios where the number of hollow-bearing trees remained stable, or increased, with frequent fires.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Hollow-bearing trees will decline where frequent fires co-occur with high rates at which trees collapse (or are removed) and/or where there are not a sufficient number of suitable mature trees in which new hollows can be excavated by fire.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The impact of increasing fire frequency on hollow-dependent fauna is likely to be greatest in forests where regeneration is inhibited, a large number of trees are removed before they form hollows, and/or where rates of collapse among trees is elevated.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139689537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thomas Jones, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Gabriel Pereira, Saulo Freitas, Georg Grell
{"title":"Ingesting GOES-16 fire radiative power retrievals into Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)","authors":"Thomas Jones, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Gabriel Pereira, Saulo Freitas, Georg Grell","doi":"10.1071/wf23133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23133","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>The record number of wildfires in the United States in recent years has led to an increased focus on developing tools to accurately forecast their impacts at high spatial and temporal resolutions.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>The Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke) was developed to improve these forecasts using wildfire properties retrieved from satellites to generate smoke plumes in the system.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>The WoFS is a regional domain ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system built around the concept of creating short-term (0–6 h) forecasts of high impact weather. This work extends WoFS-Smoke by ingesting data from the GOES-16 satellite at 15-min intervals to sample the rapidly changing conditions associated with wildfires.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Comparison of experiments with and without GOES-16 data show that ingesting high temporal frequency data allows for wildfires to be initiated in the model earlier, leading to improved smoke forecasts during their early phases. Decreasing smoke plume intensity associated with weakening fires was also better forecast.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>The results were consistent for a large fire near Boulder, Colorado and a multi-fire event in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, indicating a broad applicability of this system.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The development of WoFS-Smoke using geostationary satellite data allows for a significant advancement in smoke forecasting and its downstream impacts such as reductions in air quality, visibility, and potentially properties of severe convection.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139647129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dwi M. J. Purnomo, Eirik G. Christensen, Nieves Fernandez-Anez, Guillermo Rein
{"title":"BARA: cellular automata simulation of multidimensional smouldering in peat with horizontally varying moisture contents","authors":"Dwi M. J. Purnomo, Eirik G. Christensen, Nieves Fernandez-Anez, Guillermo Rein","doi":"10.1071/wf23042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23042","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Smouldering peatland wildfires can last for months and create a positive feedback for climate change. These flameless, slow-burning fires spread horizontally and vertically and are strongly influenced by peat moisture content. Most models neglect the non-uniform nature of peat moisture.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>We conducted a computational study into the spread behaviour of smouldering peat with horizontally varying moisture contents.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We developed a discrete cellular automaton model called BARA, and calibrated it against laboratory experiments.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>BARA demonstrated high accuracy in predicting fire spread under non-uniform moisture conditions, with >80% similarity between observed and predicted shapes, and captured complex phenomena. BARA simulated 1 h of peat smouldering in 3 min, showing its potential for field-scale modelling.</p><strong> Conclusion</strong><p>Our findings demonstrate: (i) the critical role of moisture distribution in determining smouldering behaviour; (ii) incorporating peat moisture distribution into BARA’s simple rules achieved reliable predictions of smouldering spread; (iii) given its high accuracy and low computational requirement, BARA can be upscaled to field applications.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>BARA contributes to our understanding of peatland wildfires and their underlying drivers. BARA could form part of an early fire warning system for peatland.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139584292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stephen D. Fillmore, Sarah McCaffrey, Rachel Bean, Alexander M. Evans, Jose Iniguez, Andrea Thode, Alistair M. S. Smith, Matthew P. Thompson
{"title":"Factors influencing wildfire management decisions after the 2009 US federal policy update","authors":"Stephen D. Fillmore, Sarah McCaffrey, Rachel Bean, Alexander M. Evans, Jose Iniguez, Andrea Thode, Alistair M. S. Smith, Matthew P. Thompson","doi":"10.1071/wf23129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23129","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>The decision making process undertaken during wildfire responses is complex and prone to uncertainty. In the US, decisions federal land managers make are influenced by numerous and often competing factors.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>To assess and validate the presence of decision factors relevant to the wildfire decision making context that were previously known and to identify those that have emerged since the US federal wildfire policy was updated in 2009.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Interviews were conducted across the US while wildfires were actively burning to elucidate time-of-fire decision factors. Data were coded and thematically analysed.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Most previously known decision factors as well as numerous emergent factors were identified.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>To contextualise decision factors within the decision making process, we offer a Wildfire Decision Framework that has value for policy makers seeking to improve decision making, managers improving their process and wildfire social science researchers.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Managers may gain a better understanding of their decision environment and use our framework as a tool to validate their deliberations. Researchers may use these data to help explain the various pressures and influences modern land and wildfire managers experience. Policy makers and agencies may take institutional steps to align the actions of their staff with desired wildfire outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139475894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Age Shama, Rui Zhang, Ting Wang, Anmengyun Liu, Xin Bao, Jichao Lv, Yuchun Zhang, Guoxiang Liu
{"title":"Forest fire progress monitoring using dual-polarisation Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images combined with multi-scale segmentation and unsupervised classification","authors":"Age Shama, Rui Zhang, Ting Wang, Anmengyun Liu, Xin Bao, Jichao Lv, Yuchun Zhang, Guoxiang Liu","doi":"10.1071/wf23124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23124","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>The cloud-penetrating and fog-penetrating capability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) give it the potential for application in forest fire progress monitoring; however, the low extraction accuracy and significant salt-and-pepper noise in SAR remote sensing mapping of the burned area are problems.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>This paper provides a method for accurately extracting the burned area based on fully exploiting the changes in multiple different dimensional feature parameters of dual-polarised SAR images before and after a fire.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>This paper describes forest fire progress monitoring using dual-polarisation SAR images combined with multi-scale segmentation and unsupervised classification. We first constructed polarisation feature and texture feature datasets using multi-scene Sentinel-1 images. A multi-scale segmentation algorithm was then used to generate objects to suppress the salt-and-pepper noise, followed by an unsupervised classification method to extract the burned area.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>The accuracy of burned area extraction in this paper is 91.67%, an improvement of 33.70% compared to the pixel-based classification results.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Compared with the pixel-based method, our method effectively suppresses the salt-and-pepper noise and improves the SAR burned area extraction accuracy.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The fire monitoring method using SAR images provides a reference for extracting the burned area under continuous cloud or smoke cover.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139028377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kerryn Little, Laura J. Graham, Nicholas Kettridge
{"title":"Accounting for among-sampler variability improves confidence in fuel moisture content field measurements","authors":"Kerryn Little, Laura J. Graham, Nicholas Kettridge","doi":"10.1071/wf23078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23078","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Direct fuel moisture content measurements are critical for characterising spatio-temporal variations in fuel flammability and for informing fire danger assessments. However, among-sampler variability (systematic differences in measurements between samplers) likely contributes to fuel moisture measurement variability in most field campaigns.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>We assessed the magnitude of among-sampler variability in plot-scale <i>Calluna vulgaris</i> fuel moisture measurements.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Seventeen individuals collected samples from six fuel layers hourly from 10:00 hours to 18:00 hours. We developed mixed effects models to estimate the among-sampler variability.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Fuel moisture measurements were highly variable between individuals sampling within the same plot, fuel layer, and time of day. The importance of among-sampler variability in explaining total measured fuel moisture variance was fuel layer dependent. Among-sampler variability explained the greatest amount of measurement variation in litter (58%) and moss (45%) and was more important for live (19%) than dead (4%) <i>Calluna</i>.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Both consideration of samplers within the experimental design and incorporation of sampler metadata during statistical analysis will improve understanding of spatio-temporal fuel moisture dynamics obtained from field-based studies.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Accounting for among-sampler variability in fuel moisture campaigns opens opportunities to utilise sampling teams and citizen science research to examine fuel moisture dynamics over large spatio-temporal scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139028345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}