International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Do real estate investment companies profit from house price growth? Evidence from Portugal","authors":"A. M. Cunha, A. Borges, Miguel H. Ferreira","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-01-2023-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-01-2023-0007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to study the sensitivity of nonlisted real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings to house prices. This study evaluates whether house price changes determined these companies’ return on equity (ROE) or if other factors influenced the industry’s profitability beyond house price growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors collected a ten-year sample with the aggregate ROE of Portugal’s real estate investment companies, split by regions, and data on house prices and the per capita gross domestic product as a control variable. The authors ran a national-level time series with the canonical cointegrating regression estimator, which is robust to a small sample size; the authors also performed a regression on regional-level panel data with the common correlated effects mean group estimator, thus allowing slope coefficient heterogeneity and controlling for cross-sectional dependence. The authors also ran ordinary least squares regressions as a means of comparison.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This study found that an increase in the house price is not translated into an increase in the aggregate ROE. The results are robust with a reduced survivorship-biased sample, meaning that even the best-succeeded real estate investment companies do not have their accounting ROE dependent on house price growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The sample size is small and specific to one country. This paper did not study the housing market structure to verify whether it operates under monopolistic competition, which could further explain the attained results.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Policy decision-makers should know that there are no excess profits in the real estate investment companies’ industry because of house price growth that could be subject to windfall taxes.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the connections between house prices and real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings have never been studied.\u0000","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42585791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effects of housing price on the mortgage debt in Malaysia: new evidence from FMOLS method","authors":"Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-11-2022-0167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-11-2022-0167","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of housing price on mortgage debt accumulation while considering the structural break effects associated with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To determine the existence of a long run relationship among the variables, this study used a Johansen cointegration test. The long run model was then estimated using the fully modified ordinary least square method and reported for both the model with and without a structural break associated with the GFC.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings demonstrate a moderate positive relationship between housing price and mortgage debt, with the impact of the GFC is positive but insignificant. The household’s lack of responsiveness to the GFC may be attributed to their optimistic expectations and confidence in the Malaysian housing market.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Findings of this study provide some guidance to policymakers and the banking sector in predicting household borrowing behavior during future economic crises.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The increase in housing prices and mortgage debt after the GFC has been a concern for many countries, including Malaysia. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the relationship between housing prices and mortgage debt in Malaysia and sheds light on the impact of the GFC on household borrowing behavior. The study’s contributions include providing new evidence to the underexplored topic, enhancing the robustness and reliability of the empirical results and providing insights into the importance of testing for structural breaks in time series analysis.\u0000","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46727716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Guest editorial: A global housing affordability upheaval after Covid-19","authors":"E. Yiu, K. Wong, Hao Wu, William K.S. Cheung","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-05-2023-181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-05-2023-181","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46532497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic effects of geopolitical risks and infectious diseases on real estate markets","authors":"D. Yuni, I. N. Enwo–Irem, C. Urom","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0130","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Increase in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characte","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49051928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is this time the same? Housing market performance during SARS and COVID-19*","authors":"Siru Lu, Chongyu Wang, Siu Kei Wong, Shuai Shi","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0125","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to examine the housing market responses to two outbreaks of respiratory diseases in Hong Kong during the Information Era – the 2003 SARS and COVID-19 outbreaks. Design/methodology/approach The authors first investigate the aggregate housing price changes during SARS and COVID-19. Next, the authors conduct a battery of univariate analyses pertaining to the relationship between district-level housing price movements and geographic and demographic patterns during the pandemic periods. Finally, to shed light on the housing price dynamics at the micro level, the authors conduct an estate-level analysis with the data of 234 residential estates from 2003 to 2020, focusing on the impacts of SARS and COVID-19 on the idiosyncratic volatility of residential estates. Findings Overall, SARS and COVID-19 outbreaks are negatively associated with housing prices. However, unlike SARS, the impact of COVID-19 on housing prices was moderate and transient. The geographic imbalances of the epidemic-induced underperformance are observed at the district and estate levels. Finally, the estate-level analysis presented in this paper indicates that the average idiosyncratic volatility of residential estates is 1.5% higher during the SARS period but 3.7% lower during the COVID-19 period. Lower volatility during COVID-19 is likely explained by household learning from the SARS period. Practical implications Regulators and investors could resort to efficient information disclosure to attenuate idiosyncratic volatility's adverse impact on housing market returns. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are among the first to examine housing market responses to the 2003 SARS and COVID-19 outbreaks using the Hong Kong housing market as a laboratory.","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136275958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of proximity and spatial dependence on the house price index for Dar es Salaam","authors":"Frank Nyanda","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0136","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the effect of proximity and spatial dependence on the house price index for the nascent market Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Despite the ongoing housing market transactions, there is no single house price index that takes into account proximity and spatial dependence. The proximity considerations in question are proximal to arterial roads, public hospitals, an airport and food markets. Previous studies on sub-Saharan Africa have focused on the ordinary least squares (OLS)-based hedonic model for the index and ignored spatial and proximity considerations.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using the OLS and spatial econometric approach, the paper tests for the significance of the two effects – proximity and spatial dependence in the hedonic price model with year dummy variables from 2010 to 2019. The paper then compares the three indices in the following configurations: without the two effects, with proximity factors only, and with both effects, i.e. proximity and spatial dependence.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The inclusion of proximity factors and spatial dependence – spatial autocorrelation – seems to improve the hedonic price model but does not significantly improve the house price index. However, further research should be called for on account of the nascent nature of the market.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The paper brings new knowledge by demonstrating that it may not be necessary to take into account proximity factors and spatial dependence for the Dar es Salaam house price index.\u0000","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49585284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impacts of pandemic on urban housing prices: evidence from the outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, 2020","authors":"B. Qin, Yanyan Peng, lu feng","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0112","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly raised economic risk and uncertainty worldwide. How does COVID-19 affect urban housing markets? Is there any difference when different areas encounter COVID-19? This study aims to investigate the impacts of the pandemic on housing prices by using Beijing’s housing markets data in 2020.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors use transaction-level data from April to September in 2020 to conduct a hedonic price analysis of the housing markets in Beijing. The data included 70,843 transactions scraped from a real estate agent’s website. The authors use the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak from the Beijing Xinfadi market (the largest and most important food wholesale market in Beijing) in 2020.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This outbreak of COVID-19 caused a 6.3% drop in housing prices in Beijing from April to September in 2020. However, the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in different urban neighbourhoods were spatially heterogeneous. Housing prices in neighbourhoods with industries that rely on face-to-face communication were more affected by the pandemic, while those that can work remotely were less affected.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000By investigating the impacts of COVID-19 on housing prices in Beijing, this study illustrates that urban housing prices would be impacted by the pandemic, at least in the short term. While the rise and fall of housing prices were found spatially heterogeneous in Beijing, it suggests that urban neighbourhoods with specific socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations would unfold different resilience when encountering pandemic. By using data scraping and rigorous statistical tools, the study is probably one of the first ones examining the consequences of COVID-19 in intra-urban housing markets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48113686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial: Introduction from the editor – IJHMA Vol. 16 No. 2","authors":"R. Reed","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-03-2023-179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-03-2023-179","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41732557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia","authors":"Farida Nurkhayati, Ardyanto Fitrady","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0114","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does not increase so that house prices will continue to increase. This study aims to estimate the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study examines the effect of immigration on urban housing prices at the city level in Indonesia by using 14 major cities data from 2012 to 2020 to build a panel data model. The model also incorporates urban economic conditions as control variables.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000From the national level, the authors find that inter-regional migration has a significant and positive impact on urban housing prices. Based on the results, this paper suggested addressing the volatility of house prices through the provision of decent and affordable housing improvement to meet the growing needs and demands of the immigrant population.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study still has several limitations: the sample of cities used is not comprehensive enough, and the time period used is not long enough; the spatial impact on house prices is not taken into account, and the effect of migrant characteristics in each city has not been considered.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000There is limited research on the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in city levels, especially in the case of Indonesia. In addition, recent migration is used to proxy the immigration pattern. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the empirical literature on the effect of immigration at the city level in developing countries.\u0000","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47144246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does work from home reshape the urban rental structure? Early evidence from a rental gradient analysis in Auckland","authors":"Chung Yim Edward Yiu, K. Cheung, Dan Xia Wong","doi":"10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-08-2022-0108","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to identify the pandemic’s impact on house rents by applying a rental gradient analysis to compare the pre-and post-COVID-19 periods in Auckland. The micro-level household census data from the Integrated Data Infrastructure of Statistics New Zealand is also applied to scrutinise this WFH trend as a robustness check.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Since the outbreak of COVID-19, work-from-home (WFH) and e-commerce have become much more common in many cities. Many news reports have contended that households are leaving city centres and moving into bigger and better houses in the suburbs or rural areas. This emerging trend has been redefining the traditional theory of residential location choices. Proximity to central business district (CBD) is no longer the most critical consideration in choosing one’s residence. WFH and e-commerce flatten the traditional bid rent curve from the city centre.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The authors examined micro-level housing rental listings in 242 suburbs of the Auckland Region from January 2013 to December 2021 (108 months) and found that the hedonic price gradient models suggest that there has been a trend of rental gradient flattening and that its extent was almost doubled in 2021. Rents are also found to be increasing more in lower-density suburbs.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The results imply that the pandemic has accelerated the trend of WFH and e-commerce. The authors further discuss whether the trend will be a transient phenomenon or a long-term shift.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Suppose an organisation is concerned about productivity and performance issues due to a companywide ability to WFH. In that case, some standard key performance indicators for management and employees could be implemented. Forward-thinking cities need to focus on attracting skilful workers by making WFH a possible solution, not by insisting on the primacy of antiquated nine-to-five office cultures.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000WFH has traditionally encountered resistance, but more and more companies are adopting WFH policies in this post-COVID era. The early rental gradient and the micro-level household data analysis all confirm that the WFH trend is emerging and will likely be a long-term shift. Instead of resisting the change, organisations should improve their remote work policies and capabilities for this WFH trend.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000So far, empirical studies of post-COVID urban restructuring have been limited. This study aims to empirically test such an urban metamorphosis by identifying the spatial and temporal impacts of COVID on house rental gradients in the Auckland Region, New Zealand. The authors apply rental gradient analysis to test this urban restructuring hypothesis because the method considers the spatial-temporal differences, i.e. a difference-in-differences between pre-and post-pandemic period against the distance measured from the city centre. The method can control for the spatial difference and the endog","PeriodicalId":14136,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44898941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}