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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Complex System of Systems (SoS) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Environments 复杂系统（so）建模与仿真（M&S）环境中的不确定性量化(UQ
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12511
Joseph Marvin, Thomas Whalen, Brad Morantz, Ray Deiotte, Robert K. Garrett Jr.
{"title":"Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Complex System of Systems (SoS) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Environments","authors":"Joseph Marvin,&nbsp;Thomas Whalen,&nbsp;Brad Morantz,&nbsp;Ray Deiotte,&nbsp;Robert K. Garrett Jr.","doi":"10.1002/inst.12511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12511","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Prevailing modeling and simulation (M&amp;S) techniques have struggled to provide meaningful quantitative results in M&amp;S of complex system of systems (SoSs) in the face of an environment filled with complex interacting uncertainties. This paper reports on systems thinking applied to “how” M&amp;S techniques should shift to allow a next generation of quantitative tools and techniques. The imperative is to provide quantitative performance results across the constituent interfaces in a modeled architecture. A five-step statistical and parametric algorithm tool that addresses uncertainty quantification (UQ) is presented. [Improving the utility of UQ data evaluation] A quantitative approach to managing complex uncertainties across modeled interfaces using graph theory is proposed. A future vision for SoS engineering (SoSE) that uses graph theory-based modeling is suggested to improve the utility of tools such as UQ is suggested.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"9-16"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring the Uncertainty Impacts During the Systems Engineering Lifecycle 测量系统工程生命周期中的不确定性影响
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12512
David Flanigan, Jeffery Dixon
{"title":"Measuring the Uncertainty Impacts During the Systems Engineering Lifecycle","authors":"David Flanigan,&nbsp;Jeffery Dixon","doi":"10.1002/inst.12512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12512","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Uncertainty is a large part of the systems engineering development process. Particularly absent is the quantification of uncertainty of the threat, operating environment, and friendly force factors at each step of this lifecycle. This paper will explore a methodology to quantify the amount of uncertainty and the interdependencies of the uncertainty factors during the development. Included for consideration are internal and external factors and their contribution to the overall system uncertainty. An illustrative example is provided to exercise this methodology.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"17-22"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The ValXplore Method: Exploring Desirability, Feasibility and Viability of Business and System Design Under Uncertainty ValXplore方法：探索不确定性下业务和系统设计的合意性、可行性和可行性
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12513
Sonia Ben Hamida, Marija Jankovic, Alain Huet, Jean-Claude Bocquet
{"title":"The ValXplore Method: Exploring Desirability, Feasibility and Viability of Business and System Design Under Uncertainty","authors":"Sonia Ben Hamida,&nbsp;Marija Jankovic,&nbsp;Alain Huet,&nbsp;Jean-Claude Bocquet","doi":"10.1002/inst.12513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12513","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In early design stages, business developers and systems engineers deal with uncertainties on the business problem, in line with the company's strategy. Before designing the system, the business developers need to set the boundaries of the business problem: What are the values to deliver to which stakeholders? What are their preferences? What are the future trends or the evolution of the markets and the external context? These questions regarding the uncertainties on the definition of the problem may not have answers and need to be investigated to assess the value robustness of the possible design alternatives. The aim of this work is to support decision-making in business and system design thanks to a broad and rapid analysis of a large amount of business design alternatives under uncertainty. We introduce a decision-making support method, called ValXplore, based on visual analysis and data analytics to explore the uncertainties on and in the business problem. The method was tested and validated on an industrial case study to assess the benefits and limits of the semi-reusability of a launch vehicle. Both business developers and systems engineers can rapidly explore a broad space of alternatives to increase the value to the stakeholders, by performing sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"23-30"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impacts of Uncertainty Propagation to System Requirements by Evaluating Requirement Connectivity 通过评估需求连通性来评估不确定性传播对系统需求的影响
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12515
Alejandro Salado, Roshanak Nilchiani
{"title":"Assessing the Impacts of Uncertainty Propagation to System Requirements by Evaluating Requirement Connectivity","authors":"Alejandro Salado,&nbsp;Roshanak Nilchiani","doi":"10.1002/inst.12515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12515","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Although theoretically independent, requirements within a decomposition level of a system architecture are not isolated elements. For an existing design, a change of a requirement may endanger or facilitate fulfillment of other requirements within the same level of the decomposition. The present research suggests a requirement connectivity metric to evaluate the potential consequences that changing a requirement may have on a system with respect to fulfillment of other requirements. A particular aspect of the present research is the assumption that connectivity accounts only for requirements within the same decomposition level of an architecture, not for those flowing up or down the decomposition. The metric is used to evaluate different cases in which requirements are changed due to triggering of uncertain events during a project life cycle.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"39-46"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF 来自总编辑
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12510
William Miller
{"title":"FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF","authors":"William Miller","doi":"10.1002/inst.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12510","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"6-7"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Complex System Reliability 复杂系统可靠性估计的贝叶斯方法
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12517
Ozge Doguc, Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez
{"title":"A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Complex System Reliability","authors":"Ozge Doguc,&nbsp;Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez","doi":"10.1002/inst.12517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12517","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Although a number of recent studies on using Bayesian Networks (BN) for system reliability estimation have been proposed, these studies are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN was designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. However, the process of building a system-specific BN is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a holistic method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model and estimation of the system reliability. Moreover, very limited human intervention is sufficient for the process of BN construction and reliability estimation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"55-60"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach 探索性建模中输入不确定性空间的启发式描述
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12514
Enayat A. Moallemi, Sondoss Elsawah, Michael J. Ryan
{"title":"Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach","authors":"Enayat A. Moallemi,&nbsp;Sondoss Elsawah,&nbsp;Michael J. Ryan","doi":"10.1002/inst.12514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12514","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Exploratory modelling is an emerging approach which can address the challenge of model-based decision making in dealing with input model uncertainties. Exploratory modelling samples from an input uncertainty space and generates extensive computational experiments to analyse possible model behaviours in an output solution space. The way that the input uncertainty space is delineated influences the results of exploratory modelling and its computational cost. In this article, we show the statistical significance of the implication of the size of an input uncertainty space on the resulted output solution space. We also propose a heuristic approach which informs the delineation of input uncertainties by screening the relevant model behaviour in the solution space. An illustrative example of an aircraft fleet management system is used to demonstrate the implementation of our approach in practice. We conclude that the delineation of input uncertainty space can be a way to control simulations in exploratory modelling and to enhance the efficiency of the exploration process and the confidence of the final results.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"31-38"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Applying Bayesian Networks to TRL Assessments – Innovation in Systems Engineering 将贝叶斯网络应用于TRL评估——系统工程中的创新
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12516
Marc F. Austin, Virginia Ahalt, Erin Doolittle, Cheyne Homberger, George A. Polacek, Donal M. York
{"title":"Applying Bayesian Networks to TRL Assessments – Innovation in Systems Engineering","authors":"Marc F. Austin,&nbsp;Virginia Ahalt,&nbsp;Erin Doolittle,&nbsp;Cheyne Homberger,&nbsp;George A. Polacek,&nbsp;Donal M. York","doi":"10.1002/inst.12516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12516","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Currently, technology readiness assessments (TRAs) are used in determining the maturity of the critical technology elements (CTEs) of a system as it moves forward in the system development life cycle. The TRA method uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) as the decision metric. TRL values are assessed and determined by subject matter experts (SMEs). Since expert evaluators often differ in their judgment when scoring a system element against the TRL scale criteria, this paper argues for the use of a Bayesian network model to provide a mathematical method to consistently combine and validate the judgment of these SMEs and increase the confidence in the determination of the readiness of system components and their technologies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 6","pages":"47-54"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF 主编的话
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12503
William Miller
{"title":"FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF","authors":"William Miller","doi":"10.1002/inst.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12503","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 5","pages":"6-7"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Requirements Statements Are Transfer Functions: An Insight from Model-Based Systems Engineering 需求陈述是转移函数：基于模型的系统工程的启示
IF 1 4区 工程技术
Insight Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1002/inst.12506
William D. Schindel
{"title":"Requirements Statements Are Transfer Functions: An Insight from Model-Based Systems Engineering","authors":"William D. Schindel","doi":"10.1002/inst.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/inst.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Traditional systems engineering pays attention to careful composition of prose requirements statements. Even so, prose appears less than what is needed to advance the art of systems engineering into a theoretically based engineering discipline comparable to electrical, mechanical, or chemical engineering. Ask three people to read a set of prose requirements statements, and a universal experience is that there will be three different impressions of their meaning. The rise of model-based systems engineering might suggest the demise of prose requirements, but we argue otherwise. This paper shows how prose requirements can be productively embedded in and a valued formal part of requirements models. This leads to the practice-impacting insight that requirements statements can be non-linear extensions of linear transfer functions, shows how their ambiguity can be further reduced using ordinary language, how their completeness or overlap more easily audited, and how they can be “understood” more completely by engineering tools.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13956,"journal":{"name":"Insight","volume":"27 5","pages":"27-34"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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