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Successful simulation of complex systems with SIMSCRIPT II.5 用SIMSCRIPT成功模拟复杂系统
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1978-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102786.1102787
J. Annino, E. C. Russell
{"title":"Successful simulation of complex systems with SIMSCRIPT II.5","authors":"J. Annino, E. C. Russell","doi":"10.1145/1102786.1102787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102786.1102787","url":null,"abstract":"Digital simulation is an effective method of pretesting proposed systems, plans or policies prior to the development of expensive prototypes, field tests or actual implementations. In simulation analysis the computer traces out in detail the implications and consequences of a proposed system or course of action. Compared with other forms of analysis, simulation is more realistic, more easily understood and more conclusive. Because the results are easier to understand, the conclusions receive wider acceptance.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132021019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of statistical methodology in simulation 统计方法在模拟中的作用
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1978-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102786.1102793
J. Kleijnen
{"title":"The role of statistical methodology in simulation","authors":"J. Kleijnen","doi":"10.1145/1102786.1102793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102786.1102793","url":null,"abstract":"In practice, a most popular method to study complex systems is simulation. However, a major practical drawback of simulation is its <u>ad hoc</u> character. After spending much mental effort and computer time to develop, program, and run a computer simulation, strictly speaking, the results are valid only for the specific parameter values and structural relationships of the executed simulation program (or programs). Changing a parameter or relationship means that the simulation program has to be run again. Yet, such changes are necessary to answer \"what if\" questions, to find optimal system configurations and, not to be forgotten, to establish the sensitivity of the conclusions to specific model assumptions.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127550098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 47
Risk: compensation and the expected utility hypothesis 风险:补偿与期望效用假说
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1978-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102786.1102795
Kenneth H. Derus, J. C. Hansen
{"title":"Risk: compensation and the expected utility hypothesis","authors":"Kenneth H. Derus, J. C. Hansen","doi":"10.1145/1102786.1102795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102786.1102795","url":null,"abstract":"The formula for Fair Risk-Compensation (hereafter, FRC) in betting situations is usually expressed as B/p(W), where B is the amount bet and p(W) is the probability of winning. (The psychological interpretation is clear. If an individual has 1 - p(W) chances of losing his investment-- where 1 - p(W)≫p(W), he must stand to gain, should he win, in proportion to his chances of winning; otherwise there is no point to undertaking the risk in the first place.) This formula is highly misleading. It is a trivial matter to construct betting policies where p(L) # 1 - p(W). (I. e. - where the probability of having to pay out money is not equal to the probability of not taking in money.)","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124164508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Computer based development of large scale ecological models problems and prospects 基于计算机的大尺度生态模型开发存在的问题与展望
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102518
E. Halfon
{"title":"Computer based development of large scale ecological models problems and prospects","authors":"E. Halfon","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102518","url":null,"abstract":"Modelling an ecosystem requires knowledge of the system, obtained with experiments, and its abstraction within a mathematical framework. Systems methods can be used effectively in the latter phase of the modelling process. Indeed, when coupled with experimental work, these mathematical methods can help in the development of an ecologically realistic mathematical model. These models formalize hypotheses proposed to describe the ecosystem structure and explain its behavior. For example, a forest is not only made of trees, but also of shrubs, fungi and other flora. Animals contribute to modify and influence the forest, and chemical nutrients cycle between flora, fauna and soil. A mathematical model of this ecosystem would try to conceptualize relationships among these domains. If this model is set in dynamical terms, e.g., a set of differential equations, then the model behavior should be similar to the forest behavior.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115754051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Interactive simulation program generation 交互式仿真程序生成
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102513
N. R. Davies
{"title":"Interactive simulation program generation","authors":"N. R. Davies","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102513","url":null,"abstract":"For many applications, the viability of simulation techniques has been greatly enhanced by the introduction of interactive simulation program generators. Clementson's CAPS/ECSL (1) is now widely available, and Matthewson's DRAFT now generates simulation programs in SIMON (2), GASP (3) or SIMULA (4).","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"62 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123684011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Structured simulation programming 结构化仿真程序设计
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102515
J. Palme
{"title":"Structured simulation programming","authors":"J. Palme","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102515","url":null,"abstract":"If you wish to make a successful simulation program, you must tackle the problem of helping the customer to understand the model so that he can give constructive criticism and rely on the results as a basis for decision making. Another problem arises when the customer wants to extend the program to many times its original size.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121808063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The DRI Motor Vehicle prospects model: an example of econometrics and simulation DRI汽车前景模型:计量经济学和模拟的一个例子
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102524
Edward Matluck
{"title":"The DRI Motor Vehicle prospects model: an example of econometrics and simulation","authors":"Edward Matluck","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102524","url":null,"abstract":"This paper outlines DRI's Motor Vehicles prospect model and presents the results of some sample simulations. The model demonstrates how econometric and simulation techniques can be fruitfully applied at the micro economic level.The model is designed to assess the effects of changes in motor vehicle technology on all facets of the industry. The user first configures the vehicles to be produced over the forecast horizon. Simulation of the model then yields yearly bills of materials, production and investment costs, fuel economy and other fleet characteristics over a forecast horizon. The demand sector of the model forecasts new vehicle sales by market segment as a function of economic and demographic behavior. Final fleet characteristics are thus a function of both the supply and demand for motor vehicles.The model is currently being used by business and government. It is a natural tool for use in making fuel economy estimates and evaluation of motor fuel related energy policy issues. For materials suppliers it is a valuable aid for both long and short term planning. In the automotive after-market it can depict the current and future demand for individual replacement parts with a high degree of accuracy.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130197009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
"Some criteria for classification and evaluation of discrete event simulation languages" 离散事件仿真语言的分类和评价标准
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102526
W. Kreutzer
{"title":"\"Some criteria for classification and evaluation of discrete event simulation languages\"","authors":"W. Kreutzer","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102526","url":null,"abstract":"In order to describe (model) a given system in a more or less disciplined way, some kind of formal or informal \"system description language\", providing a \"world view\" for concept articulation and communication will be explicitely or implicitely used. To appreciate the importance of an \"appropriate\" frame of reference, it should be considered, that a system description methodology will necessarily be used as a device for structuring the thinking of its users. The severe problems encountered by large-scale software development projects have recently led to widespread recognition of the importance of structuring and levels of abstraction as a method supporting reliable engineering of systems; /DENNING74/.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126931998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comparison on two techniques for collecting statistics in simulation 仿真中两种统计数据收集技术的比较
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102525
B. Rho
{"title":"A comparison on two techniques for collecting statistics in simulation","authors":"B. Rho","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102525","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the paper is to compare two techniques of collecting statistics: The method of batch means and the regenerative process method. The compairsons are in terms of accuracy and precision of sample performance measurements and exexution time.Two different queuing systems of M/M/1 and M/M/4 with traffic intensity factors of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.9 are designed for experimentation. The results indicate that the regenerative method in general shows better performance than the method of batch means.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130051193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the development and management of computerized models 计算机模型的开发与管理
ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest Pub Date : 1977-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1102505.1102506
P. Roth, S. Gass, R. Nance
{"title":"On the development and management of computerized models","authors":"P. Roth, S. Gass, R. Nance","doi":"10.1145/1102505.1102506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102505.1102506","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. Government has recently identified the need for a body of guidlines and standards to improve the development and management of Federal computerized models. This need has most recently been advocated by a General Accounting Office Report to the Congress of August 1976. This paper is composed of two parts: the first describes the program undertaken by the Government to develop such standards; the second describes a particular research project conducted under the program which proposes to develop improved methodology for simulation model development.","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"13 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1977-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116807843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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