{"title":"风险:补偿与期望效用假说","authors":"Kenneth H. Derus, J. C. Hansen","doi":"10.1145/1102786.1102795","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The formula for Fair Risk-Compensation (hereafter, FRC) in betting situations is usually expressed as B/p(W), where B is the amount bet and p(W) is the probability of winning. (The psychological interpretation is clear. If an individual has 1 - p(W) chances of losing his investment-- where 1 - p(W)≫p(W), he must stand to gain, should he win, in proportion to his chances of winning; otherwise there is no point to undertaking the risk in the first place.) This formula is highly misleading. It is a trivial matter to construct betting policies where p(L) # 1 - p(W). (I. e. - where the probability of having to pay out money is not equal to the probability of not taking in money.)","PeriodicalId":138785,"journal":{"name":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1978-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk: compensation and the expected utility hypothesis\",\"authors\":\"Kenneth H. Derus, J. C. Hansen\",\"doi\":\"10.1145/1102786.1102795\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The formula for Fair Risk-Compensation (hereafter, FRC) in betting situations is usually expressed as B/p(W), where B is the amount bet and p(W) is the probability of winning. (The psychological interpretation is clear. If an individual has 1 - p(W) chances of losing his investment-- where 1 - p(W)≫p(W), he must stand to gain, should he win, in proportion to his chances of winning; otherwise there is no point to undertaking the risk in the first place.) This formula is highly misleading. It is a trivial matter to construct betting policies where p(L) # 1 - p(W). (I. e. - where the probability of having to pay out money is not equal to the probability of not taking in money.)\",\"PeriodicalId\":138785,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest\",\"volume\":\"32 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1978-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102786.1102795\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACM Sigsim Simulation Digest","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1102786.1102795","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk: compensation and the expected utility hypothesis
The formula for Fair Risk-Compensation (hereafter, FRC) in betting situations is usually expressed as B/p(W), where B is the amount bet and p(W) is the probability of winning. (The psychological interpretation is clear. If an individual has 1 - p(W) chances of losing his investment-- where 1 - p(W)≫p(W), he must stand to gain, should he win, in proportion to his chances of winning; otherwise there is no point to undertaking the risk in the first place.) This formula is highly misleading. It is a trivial matter to construct betting policies where p(L) # 1 - p(W). (I. e. - where the probability of having to pay out money is not equal to the probability of not taking in money.)
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