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ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)最新文献

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Poland as an Inflation Nutter: The Story of Successful Output Stabilization 波兰作为通胀狂人:成功稳定产出的故事
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-22 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2016.2.363
Maciej Ryczkowski
{"title":"Poland as an Inflation Nutter: The Story of Successful Output Stabilization","authors":"Maciej Ryczkowski","doi":"10.18045/ZBEFRI.2016.2.363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18045/ZBEFRI.2016.2.363","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of the paper is to verify whether the National Bank of Poland (NBP) \u0000follows pure inflation targeting. The contemporaneous and forward looking, \u0000numerous Taylor rules estimated with the OLS and GMM methods provided weak \u0000evidence of any significant importance attached by NBP to output stabilization in \u0000the reaction function. The strong focus of NBP on its primary target has led to a \u0000satisfactory performance of the central bank in stabilizing the real economy. This \u0000suggests the basic conclusion that pure inflation targeters may perform equally \u0000fine in stabilizing the real economy as countries which officially attach importance \u0000to output stabilization.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115597646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Sales and the (Mis)Measurement of Price Level Fluctuations 销售与价格水平波动的(错误)计量
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2047127
P. Glandon
{"title":"Sales and the (Mis)Measurement of Price Level Fluctuations","authors":"P. Glandon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2047127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2047127","url":null,"abstract":"I use scanner data to investigate whether temporary price reductions (“sales”) play a role in aggregate price adjustment. Sales have a large and variable impact on the growth rate of average price paid. Even after aggregating across goods and markets, the monthly growth rate of average price paid is four times as volatile as the regular price because of changes in sale frequency, depth, and quantity response. The impact of sales is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate during recessions. The CPI item indexes used to deflate nominal consumption expenditure do not fully account for variation in sale activity. I show evidence that real consumption growth was understated during the last two recessions.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127626461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Stepping on a Rake: Replication and Diagnosis 踩在耙子上:复制和诊断
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2886933
J. Cochrane
{"title":"Stepping on a Rake: Replication and Diagnosis","authors":"J. Cochrane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2886933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2886933","url":null,"abstract":"This paper replicates Sims (2011) “stepping on a rake” model. It derives the model, shows how to solve it, offers some extensions, and boils the paper down to its central ingredient. Sims’ article is important: it is a simple modern economic model that produces a temporary decline in inflation when the central bank persistently raises interest rates. Inflation then rises. The model’s essential feature is long term debt. When interest rates increase, the nominal market value of long-term government debt falls. If fiscal surpluses are unchanged, the price level must fall so that the real value of government debt matches the unchanged real present value of surpluses. The model offers a unified treatment of interest rate targets, quantitative easing and forward guidance that works even in a frictionless setup.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123637147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Price Levels Across Russian Regions 俄罗斯各地区的价格水平
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-12 DOI: 10.15372/reg20170204
K. Gluschenko, Maria Karandashova
{"title":"Price Levels Across Russian Regions","authors":"K. Gluschenko, Maria Karandashova","doi":"10.15372/reg20170204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15372/reg20170204","url":null,"abstract":"Based on price levels (cost-of-living indices) across Russian cities that are published by the Russian Statistical Agency, regional price levels relative to the national average are computed over 2009–2015. Results obtained are compared with approximate estimates of regional price levels that are based on the cost of the fixed basket of goods and services for cross-region comparison of population’s purchasing capacity (many publications use such estimates). This comparison makes it possible to conclude that the crude method provides an acceptable accuracy. Regional price levels obtained are applied to estimating real (i.e. comparable between regions) incomes per capita relative to the national average.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116151612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Inflation 通货膨胀
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-09 DOI: 10.1787/factbook-2008-15-fr
Antonio Argandoña
{"title":"Inflation","authors":"Antonio Argandoña","doi":"10.1787/factbook-2008-15-fr","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/factbook-2008-15-fr","url":null,"abstract":"This is an entry for the second edition of Sage's Encyclopedia of Business Ethics and Society. It is a brief explanation of inflation, its causes and its consequences. Inflation has important economic, political, social and ethical implications for countries, especially because it affects the standard of living and distribution of income among citizens. The entry also discusses how inflation can be reduced and touches upon the issue of deflation.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121248334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 864
Central Banks and Gold 中央银行与黄金
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2326606
D. Baur
{"title":"Central Banks and Gold","authors":"D. Baur","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2326606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2326606","url":null,"abstract":"Central banks hold gold reserves that are designed to build confidence in fiat currency. This confidence is undermined if the price of gold falls significantly or rises significantly. Central banks thus have an incentive to manage the price of gold. Such management is evident in fixed gold prices in the early 20th century, in Central Bank Gold Agreements more recently and in the asymmetric correlation between monthly central bank gold reserve changes and gold price changes. The empirical analysis further analyzes gold lending by central banks, linkages between central banks, bullion banks and mining companies and the gold carry trade. We conclude that coordinated and shadowy gold operations by central banks are necessary for successful gold price and gold reserves management and demonstrate the power of market forces relative to central banks.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"944 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123304638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Optimal Inflation to Reduce Inequality 减少不平等的最优通胀
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2865076
Lorenzo Menna, P. Tirelli
{"title":"Optimal Inflation to Reduce Inequality","authors":"Lorenzo Menna, P. Tirelli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2865076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2865076","url":null,"abstract":"A popular argument in favour of price stability is that the inflation-tax burden would disproportionately fall on the poor because wealth is unevenly distributed and portfolio composition of poorer households is skewed towards a larger share of money holdings. We reconsider the issue in a DSGE model characterized by limited participation to the market for interest bearing assets (LAMP). We show that a combination of higher in ation and lower income taxes reduces inequality. When we calibrate the share of constrained agents to fit the wealth Gini index for the US, the optimal inflation rate is above 4%. This result is robust to alternative foundations of money demand equations.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115559575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 34
What Drives Commodity Price Booms and Busts? 商品价格涨跌的驱动因素是什么?
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3265115
D. Jacks, M. Stuermer
{"title":"What Drives Commodity Price Booms and Busts?","authors":"D. Jacks, M. Stuermer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3265115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3265115","url":null,"abstract":"What drives commodity price booms and busts? We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of commodity demand shocks, commodity supply shocks, and inventory demand shocks on real commodity prices. In particular, we analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural, metal, and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013. We identify differences in the type of shock driving prices of the various types of commodities and relate these differences to commodity types which reflect differences in long-run elasticities of supply and demand. Our results show that demand shocks strongly dominate supply shocks.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134117503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 68
Firm-to-Firm Relationships and Price Rigidity Theory and Evidence 企业间关系与价格刚性理论与证据
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2898148
S. Heise
{"title":"Firm-to-Firm Relationships and Price Rigidity Theory and Evidence","authors":"S. Heise","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2898148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2898148","url":null,"abstract":"Economists have long suspected that firm-to-firm relationships might increase price rigidity due to the use of explicit or implicit fixed-price contracts. Using transaction-level import data from the U.S. Census, I study the responsiveness of prices to exchange rate changes and show that prices are in fact substantially more responsive to these cost shocks in older versus newly formed relationships. Based on additional stylized facts about a relationship’s life cycle and interviews I conducted with purchasing managers, I develop a model in which a buyer-seller pair subject to persistent, stochastic shocks to production costs shares profit risk under limited commitment. Once structurally estimated, the model replicates the empirical correlation between relationship age and the responsiveness of prices to shocks. My results suggest that changes to the average length of relationships in the economy - e.g., in a recession, when the share of young relationships declines - can influence price exibility and hence the effectiveness of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133629340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Price Dispersion and Inflation Persistence 价格分散与通货膨胀持续性
ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.18651/RWP2016-09
Takushi Kurozumi, Willem Van Zandweghe
{"title":"Price Dispersion and Inflation Persistence","authors":"Takushi Kurozumi, Willem Van Zandweghe","doi":"10.18651/RWP2016-09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2016-09","url":null,"abstract":"Persistent responses of inflation to monetary policy shocks have been difficult to explain by existing models of the monetary transmission mechanism without embedding controversial intrinsic inertia of inflation. Our paper addresses this issue using a staggered price model with trend inflation, a smoothed-off kink in demand curves, and a fixed cost of production. In this model, inflation exhibits a persistent response to a policy shock even in the absence of its intrinsic inertia, because the kink causes a measure of price dispersion, which is intrinsically inertial, to become a key source of inflation persistence under the positive trend inflation rate. {{p}} In addition, output and labor productivity both rise after an expansionary policy shock as in an estimated structural vector autoregression model. Moreover, credible disinflation induces a gradual decline in inflation and a fall in output as observed during the Volcker disinflation era.","PeriodicalId":138629,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Price Level; Inflation; Deflation (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125065145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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