ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"The Effect of Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic","authors":"Haelim Anderson, Jinyuan Chang, Adam Copeland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628572","url":null,"abstract":"The coronavirus outbreak raises the question of how central bank liquidity support affects financial stability and promotes economic recovery. Using newly assembled data on cross-county flu mortality rates and state-charter bank balance sheets in New York State, we investigate the effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic on the banking system and the role of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic. We find that banks located in more severely affected areas experienced deposit withdrawals. Banks that were members of the Federal Reserve System were able to access central bank liquidity, enabling them to continue or even expand lending. Banks that were not System members, however, did not borrow on the interbank market but rather curtailed lending, suggesting that there was little-to-no pass-through of central bank liquidity. Further, in the counties most affected by the 1918 pandemic, even banks with direct access to the discount window did not borrow enough to offset large deposit withdrawals and so liquidated assets, suggesting limits to the effectiveness of liquidity provision by the Federal Reserve. Finally, we show that the pandemic caused only a short-term disruption in the financial sector.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122638746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951","authors":"C. Binder, G. Brunet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3594809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594809","url":null,"abstract":"We use rich microdata from the 1951 Survey of Consumer Finances to study inflation expectations and consumption in the United States around the start of the Korean War. At the time, the Treasury required the Federal Reserve to hold nominal interest rates constant, so increases in expected inflation corresponded to reductions in the ex-ante real interest rate (similar to a zero lower bound episode). The survey data includes measures of respondents' actual spending on durables, cars, and homes in 1950, and expected expenditures in these categories in 1951, at both the extensive and intensive margins. The data also includes detailed income and asset data from which we can infer respondents' total consumption in 1950. We find that durables consumption and total consumption in 1950 increase with expected inflation, while expected consumption in 1951 of durables, cars, and homes decreases (though only statistically significantly for cars). Our results are consistent with consumers shifting consumption forward intertemporally in response to lower real interest rates.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"254 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122137188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy, Financial Regulation and Financial Stability: A Comparison between the Fed and the ECB","authors":"G. Schnabl, Nils Sonnenberg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3571200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571200","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses in light of Austrian and Keynesian economic theory the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policies as therapies for financial crises. It compares the financial market stabilization measures of the Federal Reserve System and the European System of Central Banks in response to the US subprime crisis and the European financial and debt crisis. It is shown that the Federal Reserve System's crisis measures were more directed towards stabilizing the banking system, whereas the European Central Bank had a stronger focus on the stabilization of the debt affordability of euro area crisis countries. In both cases, household credit growth remained under control despite renewed monetary expansion, while new imbalances emerged in the corporate sector. In the euro area, loose monetary policy had a destabilizing impact on the financial sector.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124299773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Banknote Verification Relies on Vision, Feel and a Single Second","authors":"Frank C. P. van der Horst, J. Miedema, Joshua Snell, J. Theeuwes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3581541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3581541","url":null,"abstract":"Central banks incorporate various security features in their banknotes to enable the general public, retailers, professional cash handlers and central banks to detect counterfeits. In this study we conducted two field experiments to test the extent to which euro banknotes can be authenticated as a function of exposure time and perceptual modality. In addition we investigated if these effects are moderated by expertise. In both experiments, the counterfeit banknotes were actual counterfeits taken out of circulation. Experiment 1 showed that the public (i.e., non-experts) is only to a limited extent able to visually distinguish between genuine and counterfeit banknotes. Importantly, while being impacted by expertise, overall performance was not significantly affected by exposure time. Experiment 2 gauged haptic perception in addition to vision, taking into account the fact that in regular cash transactions, people might see only one side of the banknote, but will always feel both sides. Experiment 2 showed that a combination of sight and touch produced much better performance than touch alone. Unlike Experiment 1, exposure duration resulted in better performance in Experiment 2. The data of Experiment 1 and 2 indicate that banknote authentication is best when one can employ multiple sensory modalities. Moreover, as such, non-experts exhibit a very decent performance even with a one second exposure duration. Experts do an even better job. When being allowed to use only one perceptual modality, performance was equal for respectively haptic and visual perception when exposure time was long. In the short time condition it was more helpful to see than to feel. Our results are also inconsistent with the often expressed notion that people can instantly feel whether a banknote is fake or genuine. On the contrary, we found that exposure duration is important when participants could hold a banknote in their hands, with performance improving upon a longer exposure duration. The best performance in banknote authentication is realized by a combination of vision, feel and a few seconds. The study proposes a dual processing model for banknote authentication. As long as people have trust in the cash system, the situation in which the transaction takes place and the banknote itself, they authenticate quickly, effortless and automatically (Type 1 processing). If not, this mode will be overridden by Type 2 processing, and people will explicitly and deliberately authenticate banknotes. In this study, as they were asked to authenticate, the participants processed according to Type 2. Even though in everyday life people hardly ever deliberately check whether a banknote is counterfeit or not, the findings indicate that they are quite capable of doing this. The current findings suggest that when developing new series central banks should continue to address both senses. The good results for combined look and feel also suggest that in the development and evaluation of secu","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116919246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Frequent Policy Changes on South African Economy","authors":"Abhishek K P Rao, A. Raj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3591570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3591570","url":null,"abstract":"The Objective of this work project is to apply and synthesize basic knowledge using South African economy in the period 1990 to 2009 as a case study. Graphs and macroeconomic models’ data are downloaded or copied from World Bank, IMF and SARB. Monetary policy reviews and presentations are sourced from SARB site. In this submission the acquired knowledge of historical contexts, risk factors and risk management are utilized to identify and analyze key risk drives and investment challenges in South Africa. This should date from 2009 and would include responses to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Effects of policies and global politics on South Africa economy were investigated and assessed for the specified period. Using scenario planning, South Africa social, economic and political future context is envisaged, identifying likely responses to the public, fiscal and monetary policies and their effect on the investment environment.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114466493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Fed’s Response to Economic News Explains the ‘Fed Information Effect’","authors":"M. Bauer, Eric T. Swanson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3551950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551950","url":null,"abstract":"High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of inflation, unemployment, or real GDP, which have the opposite sign from what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a “Fed information effect” channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) high-frequency stock market responses to Fed announcements, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of individual Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) regressions that include the previously omitted public macroeconomic data releases all indicate that the Fed and Blue Chip forecasters are simply responding to the same public news, and that there is little if any role for a \"Fed information effect\".","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114434286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Role of BNDES as a Tool to Transmit Countercyclical Policy Decisions: Evidence from 2002-2016","authors":"M. Carreras","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3543394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3543394","url":null,"abstract":"I evaluate the impact of BNDES disbursements on Brazilian commercial banks’ disbursement using balance-sheet data for the period of 2002-2016. Using dynamic panel data techniques, I find BNDES disbursement for both investment in innovation and fixed capital investments crowded-in commercial banks’ disbursement. Further, the results obtained considering the distribution before and after 2008, suggest the beginning of the crowding-in impact together with the countercyclical role adopted by the bank at the beginning of the financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116350354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy Autonomy: Identification and Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"Hang Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3513676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3513676","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits the definition of monetary policy autonomy and develops a new method to identify autonomy regimes for a set of countries. Compared to the traditional identification approach, which only focuses on correlations among domestic and foreign interest rates, monetary policy autonomy in this paper is jointly determined by how the domestic interest rate responds to domestic inflation and real GDP in addition to its sensitivity to foreign interest rates. Furthermore, such an identification approach does not rely on the exchange rate regime or capital control indices. Using a Markov Switching model for the monetary policy function, I estimate policy responses in two regimes, and obtain measures of monetary policy autonomy in the process. Applying the method to the data from a set of advanced countries, I find monetary policy autonomy decreases when the exchange rate is fixed or capital controls are loosened. These results are consistent with the open economy trilemma.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125553903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wicksellian Rules and the Taylor Principle: Some Practical Implications","authors":"Sof́ıa Bauducco, R. Caputo","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12331","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we derive and compare the determinacy regions of price‐level targeting rules (Wicksellian rules) and Taylor rules in a standard New Keynesian model. We conclude that Wicksellian rules do not require the Taylor principle to hold in order to induce determinacy. Our results have two implications. First, in a univariate setting, the estimation of simple Taylor rules when the true rule is Wicksellian can lead to the erroneous conclusion that the equilibrium is indeterminate. Second, indeterminacy is ruled out when using system‐based methods, but it can be concluded that the central bank is less averse to inflation movements than it actually is.","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115441118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fair Value Accounting, Illiquid Assets, and Financial Stability","authors":"Lucas Mahieux","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900454","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, I analyze the joint design of capital requirements and fair value reporting rules for financial institutions with illiquid assets. I specifically examine how prudential regulation aimed at solving agency problems affects financial institutions’ incentives to use Level 2 versus Level 3 fair value reporting, as well as financial stability. Crucially, Level 3 reporting allows financial institutions to use their private information, whereas Level 2 fair values are only measured with public information. Interestingly, my analysis shows regulators may leave to financial institutions the discretion to report illiquid assets at Level 2 or Level 3. Financial institutions then report at Level 3 only if they have good private information about the assets’ quality. Moreover, prudential rules that only rely on Level 2 fair values may be efficient at solving agency problems within financial institutions but may also decrease financial stability. By contrast, prudential rules that leave to financial institutions the discretion to report illiquid assets at Level 2 or Level 3 while relaxing capital requirements may increase financial stability. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting. Funding: This work was supported by the H2020 European Research Council [Grant 669217]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4692 .","PeriodicalId":138376,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Central Banks - Policies (Topic)","volume":"418 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117331198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}