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The Political Economy of National Statistics 国家统计的政治经济学

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002

D. Coyle

{"title":"The Political Economy of National Statistics","authors":"D. Coyle","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"There have been several challenges over the decades to the status of real GDP growth as the headline indicator of economic progress. This includes forceful critiques from those urging the need to account for environmental sustainability. To date, however, the challenges have not affected the everyday use of GDP statistics in policy and political debate. This may now be changing due to the influence of the technology sector. Digital technologies are altering significantly the structure of production and consumption in ways that raise questions about issues such as the loss of business model invariance of GDP and whether the conventional production boundary judgement remains meaningful. Moreover, the digital sector is exerting its lobbying influence in policy debate to raise the profile of its criticisms of the conventional statistical definitions and practices, arguing that the figures obscure the industry’s ‘true’ contribution to the economy. As a result, for the first time since the 1950s, there is a broad coalition in favour of the replacement of GDP as the gauge of economic health, prompting a perhaps surprising degree of popular interest in national accounting. However, there is no equivalent breadth of voices coalescing around a single alternative measure (or set of measures). Instead, there is a proliferation of alternative approaches. This paper models the setting of standards for economic measurement as a co-operative game with multiple potential equilibrium outcomes, and considers the conditions for a move away from the prevailing statistical standard. The success of such a move depends on whether there is sufficient agreement on an alternative standard to enable a co-ordinated move. However, there is unlikely to be sufficient consensus without a compelling theory around which economists and policymakers can coalesce – the role played by Keynes’s macroeconomics in the original creation of today’s national accounting standards.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130283599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Aggregate Earnings Surprises, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns 总收益意外，货币政策和股票回报

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2297490

Lindsey A. Gallo, Rebecca N. Hann, Congcong Li

引用次数: 94

A Measure of the Shadow Economy in a Small Economy: Evidence from Household‐Level Expenditure Patterns 小型经济体中影子经济的测度:来自家庭层面支出模式的证据

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12138

Tufan Ekici, Mustafa Besim

引用次数: 23

Quantum Macroeconomics Theory 量子宏观经济学理论

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2627086

D. Ledenyov, Viktor O. Ledenyov

{"title":"Quantum Macroeconomics Theory","authors":"D. Ledenyov, Viktor O. Ledenyov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2627086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627086","url":null,"abstract":"The quantum macroeconomics theory is formulated for the first time, assuming that the business cycle has the discrete-time oscillations spectrum in analogy with the electronics excitations discrete-time spectrum in the Bohr’s atom model in the quantum physics. The quantum macroeconomics theory postulates that the discrete-time transitions from one level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) to another level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) will occur in the nonlinear dynamic economic systems at the time, when: 1) The land, labour and capital resources are added / released to the production/service processes in the form of quanta; 2) The disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovation is introduced, creating the resonance conditions necessary to amplify/attenuate the value of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t), during the evolution process of the nonlinear dynamic economic system in the time domain. The authors think that the general information product on the time GIP((t), the general domestic product on the time GDP(t), and the general national product on the time GNP(t), are the discrete-time digital signals (the Ledenyov discrete-time digital waves with the Markov information) in distinction from the continuous-time signals (the Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Kondratieff continuous waves), because of the discrete-time nature of the disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovations. The authors apply the quantum macroeconomics theory to research and develop a new software program for the accurate characterization and forecasting of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) dependences changes in the economies of scales and scopes in the time domain for the use by the central / commercial banks.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114362449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Display of Factor -- Utilization in Central Asia 中亚地区要素利用表现

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2599374

Dodo J. Thampapillai, Y. Chen, Christopher Ivo Bacani, Omer F. Baris

引用次数: 0

Russia's Real Sector of Economy: Factors and Trends in H1 2014 俄罗斯实体经济:2014年上半年的因素和趋势

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2494922

O. Izryadnova

引用次数: 0

The Maddison Project: Collaborative Research on Historical National Accounts 麦迪逊计划:历史国民核算的合作研究

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0289.12032

J. Bolt, J. L. van Zanden

引用次数: 622

GDPNow: A Model for GDP 'Nowcasting' GDPNow: GDP“临近预测”模型

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2580350

Patrick Higgins

引用次数: 48

Lights, Camera,... Income!: Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights 灯光,摄像机,……收入!:使用国民经济核算、调查手段和灯光估计贫困

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2423393

M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin

{"title":"Lights, Camera,... Income!: Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights","authors":"M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2423393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2423393","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we try to understand whether national accounts GDP per capita or survey mean income or consumption better proxy for true income per capita. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita versus survey means by comparing the evolution of each series to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Using the estimated optimal weights, we compute estimates of true income per capita and $1/day poverty rates for the developing world and its regions. We get poverty estimates that are substantially lower and fall substantially faster than those of Chen and Ravallion (2010) or of the survey-based poverty literature more generally.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127191260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 47

Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector 影子银行和非金融部门的融资

ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2340684

Joshua Gallin

引用次数: 24