ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Income Business Cycles","authors":"Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Sandra Pasch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3905850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3905850","url":null,"abstract":"Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than middle-income individuals. Third, these fluctuations have become smaller over the course of the Great Moderation for the bottom and the very top income individuals. With the financial crisis starting in 2009 and its repercussions, the volatilities are again increasing; however, not significantly. These findings are independent from the method to extract the business cycle component.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133885060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recessions and the Stock Market","authors":"Tim A. Kroencke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3161979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3161979","url":null,"abstract":"Why do stock prices fall more sharply than dividends around recessions? One possible explanation is that stock prices fall in anticipation of low future cash flows. I find that prices and cash flows drop contemporaneously, which speaks against such a channel. Alternatively, prices drop because expected returns are rising. I find that price volatility increases substantially more than cash flow volatility during recessions, which suggests that changes in the price of risk play an important role. However, the magnitude necessary is difficult to reconcile by standard models. Studying the stock market around recessions allows for a fresh empirical assessment of competing asset pricing theories.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132216039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports: A Panel VAR Analysis","authors":"Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo, Ronald Miranda Lescano, Gabriela Mordecki","doi":"10.4067/s0718-52862020000200157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-52862020000200157","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity-exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries' economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123784475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political Economy of Statistics: Manipulating Data","authors":"B. Frey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3705352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3705352","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the incentives by governments to manipulate statistics, not on techniques how to do so. I wish to contribute to explaining when, where and to what extent the governments tend to falsify official data. This issue is important for three reasons: (1) Manipulating statistics undermines the very essence of data collection; (2) Falsified statistics corrode policy action; (3) Econometric estimates based on manipulated data systematically distort the results. Most of the debate in economics journals on identification and potential bias in econometric models assume that the data has not been falsified.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129110918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Silent Revolution: How Central Bank Statistics Have Changed in the Last 25 Years","authors":"Riccardo De Bonis, GianMatteo Piazza","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3710143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3710143","url":null,"abstract":"This work provides a comprehensive overview of the giant leap made by European central bank statistics over the last quarter century. We illustrate, first, the work that led to a brand new set of central bank statistics for the implementation of the common monetary policy in the euro area. We then focus on the most significant developments brought up by the financial crisis and by the institutional changes that accompanied it. The final part look at challenges lying ahead for official statistics, namely how to deal with digitalization and globalization.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116679488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Measurement of Growth Over the Long Run","authors":"Rafael R. Guthmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3290847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3290847","url":null,"abstract":"Methodologies for the construction of national accounts often differ across time and countries. This paper discusses issues raised by this methodological heterogeneity on the long-run measure of economic growth and presents two sets of internationally comparable estimates of GDP for the period from 1820 to 2018. The estimates are based on real product benchmarks relative to a reference economy. The reference economy’s GDP time series is a normalized composite of several indices. The US and the UK are used as reference economies producing two sets of estimates. These estimates suggest less variation in incomes among developed economies than those of the 2018 version of the Maddison Project, are closer to Maddison’s original estimates, and suggest that both these datasets underestimated growth in the more distant past relative to more recent decades.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122282531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic of Investment Goods Imports Amid Pandemic","authors":"P. Pavlov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3600867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3600867","url":null,"abstract":"Fixed investment is one of fundamental factors for ensuring long-term economic growth and for the economic recovery following the surmounting of business activity decline, crises and recessions. The Russian economy rather strongly depends on imports of investment goods, for example, in January-February 2020 the share of machinery, equipment, and means of transport accounted for around 40% of the total Russia’s imports. The task of reducing dependence from imports remains urgent in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic when slowdown of business activity worldwide raises risks for restrictions on shipments of required nomenclature of investment goods.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126018510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Un’introduzione ai conti patrimoniali dell’Italia: caratteristiche metodologiche e principali evidenze (An Introduction to Italian Balance Sheets: Methodology and Stylized Facts)","authors":"F. Vercelli, L. Infante","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612773","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Italian Abstract:</b> I conti patrimoniali sono parte del sistema di contabilità nazionale e forniscono un quadro completo della ricchezza di un paese e della sua evoluzione temporale. Nel lavoro vengono presentati i conti patrimoniali dell’Italia costruiti utilizzando i dati dei conti finanziari prodotti dalla Banca d’Italia e quelli delle attività non finanziarie calcolati dall’Istat. Offriamo inoltre evidenza delle specificità italiane nel confronto internazionale, tenendo in considerazione i limiti di comparabilità tra le statistiche sulle attività non finanziarie nei diversi paesi. In Italia il peso delle attività non finanziarie sul totale della ricchezza è salito tra il 2005 e il 2008 dal 43 al 47 per cento per effetto della dinamica dei prezzi dei fabbricati, per poi ridursi lentamente dal 2012 e raggiungere il 41 per cento alla fine del 2017. La ricchezza netta delle famiglie italiane compensa ampiamente i valori negativi registrati dalle amministrazioni pubbliche. Il rapporto tra ricchezza netta e reddito risulta in Italia elevato nel confronto con altre economie; il divario con gli altri paesi è andato tuttavia riducendosi nel corso dell’ultimo decennio.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b>Balance sheet statistics are included in the national accounts system and provide a complete framework for analysing the wealth of a nation and its evolution over time. The paper presents Italian balance sheets, compiled using data on financial accounts produced by the Bank of Italy and non-financial asset data calculated by Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics. We provide stylized facts on the comparison between Italy and other major economies, taking into account the statistical comparability limits on non-financial assets across countries. In Italy, the ratio of non-financial assets to gross wealth increased from 43 to 47 per cent between 2005 and 2008 because of the dynamics of housing prices. It then gradually decreased from 2012, reaching 41 per cent at the end of 2017. The net wealth of Italian households far outweighs the negative values reported in the public sector. The ratio of net wealth to income is high in Italy compared with other countries; nevertheless, the gap has narrowed over the last decade.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127680709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Research Study of Nonlinearity Experiencing in the Rate of Current Account Deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product","authors":"V. Terziev, Stoyanka Petkova-Georgieva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3411558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3411558","url":null,"abstract":"called Regime Switching Models: TAR, SETAR, Markov Switching Model, etc. Usually, the behavior of time series exhibit breaks is associated with structural changes in government policy or financial crises. In the present research it is used as an example the calculated data about the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. The series are hard to be modeling because of the structural change of the government policy about the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. The basic hypothesis that is tested in the conducted research is that when there is a case of changes in the time series in their structure it is impossible the principles of linearity assumption to be applied. In the traditional econometrics as a science the linearity is an important assumption but there are practical evidences in which most of the time series do not provide this assumption. These cases of such time series behavior are called nonlinearity series. It is important to test the linearity assumption because of the differing between the ways of modeling the series in the case of linearity and nonlinearity using the date of the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. If any series do not provide the linearity assumption and also have change in the structure then the case can be modeling with TAR, SETAR or Markov Switching Model. We provided the research by questioning whether there is nonlinearity in the rate of proportion of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product and it is experienced with four nonlinearity tests: Kaplan Test, McLeod-Li test, BDS Test and Tzay Test .","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123610964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Italia 1 Trim 2019: Pil, Debito & Co (Italy 1q 2019: GDP, Debt & Co.)","authors":"Maurizio Mazziero, A. Lawford, Gabriele Serafini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3392197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3392197","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Italian Abstract:</b> Ricerca sulla situazione economica italiana basata sui dati economici ufficiali; vengono analizzati e confrontati con il passato il debito pubblico, le riserve ufficiali, il PIL, l'inflazione e la disoccupazione. <br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Research into the state of the Italian economy based on official economic data; the current Sovereign Debt, Official Reserves, GDP, Inflation and Unemployment situation is presented and and compared with the past.<br>","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128049408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}