{"title":"Indirect Costs of Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Law: Evidence from Trade Credit and Sales","authors":"Z. Sautner, V. Vladimirov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1101696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1101696","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that stronger debt enforcement in bankruptcy can reduce indirect costs of financial distress: (i) by increasing the likelihood of restructuring outside bankruptcy and (ii) by improving the recovery rate of trade creditors through explicit legal provisions. Consistent with these predictions, we find that when debt enforcement is stronger, financially distressed firms are less exposed to indirect distress costs in the form of reduced access to trade credit and forgone sales. We document these effects in a panel of firms from 40 countries with heterogeneous debt enforcement characteristics and in differences-in-differences tests exploiting a 2005 U.S. bankruptcy reform.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"162 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114817655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns","authors":"R. Koijen, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1341327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1341327","url":null,"abstract":"Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium, which measures the markets' perception of cyclical variation in future output growth, than growth stocks. The ICAPM then predicts a value risk premium provided that good news about future output lowers the marginal utility of investors' wealth today. In support of the business cycle as a priced state variable, we show that low value minus growth returns, typically realized at the start of recessions when nominal bond risk premia are low and declining, are associated with lower future dividend growth rates on value minus growth and with lower future output growth in the short term. Because of this new nexus between stock and bond returns, a parsimonious three-factor model can jointly price the book-to-market stock and maturity-sorted bond portfolios and reproduce the time-series variation in expected bond returns. Structural dynamic asset pricing models need to impute a central role to the business cycle as a priced state variable to be quantitatively consistent with the observed value, equity, and nominal bond risk premia.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128975215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When Uncertainty Blows in the Orchard: Comovement and Equilibrium Volatility Risk Premia","authors":"Andrea Buraschi, F. Trojani, Andrea Vedolin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1344368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1344368","url":null,"abstract":"type=\"main\"> We provide novel evidence for an equilibrium link between investors' disagreement, the market price of volatility and correlation, and the differential pricing of index and individual equity options. We show that belief disagreement is positively related to (i) the wedge between index and individual volatility risk premia, (ii) the different slope of the smile of index and individual options, and (iii) the correlation risk premium. Priced disagreement risk also explains returns of option volatility and correlation trading strategies in a way that is robust to the inclusion of other risk factors and different market conditions.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"259 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131725358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generalized Transform Analysis of Affine Processes and Applications in Finance","authors":"H. Chen, Scott Joslin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1344915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1344915","url":null,"abstract":"Nonlinearity is an important consideration in many problems of finance and economics, such as pricing securities, computing equilibrium, and conducting structural estimations. We extend the transform analysis in Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000) by providing analytical treatment of a general class of nonlinear transforms for processes with tractable conditional characteristic functions. We illustrate the applications of the generalized transform method in pricing contingent claims and solving general equilibrium models with preference shocks, heterogeneous agents, or multiple goods. We also apply the method to a model of time-varying labor income risk and study the implications of stochastic covariance between labor income and dividends for the dynamics of the risk premiums on financial wealth and human capital.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122836164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Institutional Investment in Syndicated Loans","authors":"Debarshi K. Nandy, Pei Shao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.966276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.966276","url":null,"abstract":"A recent development in the syndicated loan market has been the arrival of institutional investors, including hedge funds and private equity funds as lenders. This paper asks several related questions regarding institutional participation in the syndicated loan market, and presents the first empirical analysis in the literature. We show that institutional investors who participate in the syndicated loan market act as lenders of last resort. We find that institutional investors primarily lend to riskier borrowers, for riskier purposes such as takeovers and recapitalizations, as opposed to commercial banks. Our results show that institutional loans have higher loan spreads than bank loans in the primary market, ceteris paribus. The higher riskiness of institutional loans however, does not fully explain this additional spread. Following information based theories we argue that this higher spread on institutional loans primarily serves as compensation to these investors for engaging in costly information production about borrowers, since institutions are uninformed investors in the syndicated loan market. We also show that borrowers are willing to pay the higher spread to institutional lenders as they are lenders of the last resort for these firms. Finally, consistent with the information production argument, our results show that the secondary loan market is primarily driven by trading on institutional loans; while on average only 6% of bank loans are traded, 30% to 35% of institutional loans are traded in the secondary market.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126830064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disagreement and Return Predictability of Stock Portfolios","authors":"Jialin Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1107463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1107463","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides evidence that portfolio disagreement measured bottom-up from individual-stock analyst forecast dispersions has a number of asset pricing implications. For the market portfolio, market disagreement mean-reverts and is negatively related to ex post expected market return. Contemporaneously, an increase in market disagreement manifests as a drop in discount rate. For book-to-market sorted portfolios, the value premium is stronger among high disagreement stocks. The underperformance by high disagreement stocks is stronger among growth stocks. Growth stocks are more sensitive to variations in disagreement relative to value stocks. These findings are consistent with asset pricing theory incorporating belief dispersion.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126684435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Brain Drain: Are Mutual Funds Losing Their Best Minds?","authors":"Leonard Kostovetsky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1013421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1013421","url":null,"abstract":"I investigate the effect of labor market competition from hedge funds on the mutual fund industry. I find evidence of an increasing flight of top-performing young managers from mutual funds, a drop in mutual fund returns, and deterioration in recruiting standards. These findings are not explained by differences in fund characteristics, risk loadings, fund styles, or the intervening dot-com bubble. The results suggest that industry-specific government regulations, especially ones focused on employee compensation, can lead to brain drains that have crippling effects on the health of the regulated sector.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133342022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bank Lending During the Financial Crisis of 2008","authors":"V. Ivashina, D. Scharfstein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1297337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1297337","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that new loans to large borrowers fell by 47% during the peak period of the financial crisis (fourth quarter of 2008) relative to the prior quarter and by 79% relative to the peak of the credit boom (second quarter of 2007). New lending for real investment (such as working capital and capital expenditures) fell by only 14% in the last quarter of 2008, but contracted nearly as much as new lending for restructuring (LBOs, M&As, share repurchases) relative to the peak of the credit boom. After the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, there was a run by short-term bank creditors, making it difficult for banks to roll over their short term debt. We find that there was a simultaneous run by borrowers who drew down their credit lines, leading to a spike in commercial and industrial loans reported on bank balance sheets. We examine whether these two stresses on bank liquidity led them to cut lending. In particular, we show that banks cut their lending less if they had better access to deposit financing and thus, they were not as reliant on short-term debt. We also show that banks that were more vulnerable to credit-line drawdowns because they co-syndicated more of their credit lines with Lehman Brothers reduced their lending to a greater extent.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"216 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134537859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Venture Capital and Sequential Investments","authors":"D. Bergemann, U. Hege, L. Peng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1295339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1295339","url":null,"abstract":"We present a dynamic model of venture capital financing, described as a sequential investment problem with uncertain outcome. Each venture has a critical, but unknown threshold beyond which it cannot progress. If the threshold is reached before the completion of the project, then the project fails, otherwise it succeeds. The investors decide sequentially about the speed of the investment and the optimal path of staged investments. We derive the dynamically optimal funding policy in response to the arrival of information during the development of the venture. We develop three types of predictions from our theoretical model and test these predictions in a large sample of venture capital investments in the U.S. for the period of 1987-2002. First, the investment flow starts low if the failure risk is high and accelerates as the projects mature. Second, the investment flow reacts positively to information that arrives while the project is developed. We find that the investment decisions are more sensitive to the information received during the development than to the information held prior to the project launch. Third, investors distribute their investments over more funding rounds if the failure risk is larger.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115308863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael Gallmeyer, Burton Hollifield, Francisco Palomino, Stanley E. Zin
{"title":"Term Premium Dynamics and the Taylor Rule","authors":"Michael Gallmeyer, Burton Hollifield, Francisco Palomino, Stanley E. Zin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1344819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1344819","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the bond-pricing implications of an exchange economy where preference shocks result in time-varying term premiums in real yields with a Taylor rule determining inflation dynamics and nominal term premiums. We calibrate the model by matching the term structure of the means and volatilities of nominal yields. Unlike a model with exogenous inflation, a Taylor rule matching empirical properties of inflation leads to nominal term premiums that are volatile at long maturities. Increasing monetary policy aggressiveness decreases the level and volatility of nominal yields.","PeriodicalId":132549,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2009 Bergen Meetings (Archive)","volume":"155 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127531087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}