Hydrology and Earth System Sciences最新文献

{"title":"Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps","authors":"Valérie Jean, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Anissa Frini, Dominic Roussel","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Real-time operational flood forecasting most often concentrates on issuing streamflow predictions at specific points along the rivers of a watershed. However, we are now witnessing an increasing number of studies aimed at also including flood mapping as part of the forecasting system. While this additional new information (flood extent, depth, velocity, etc.) can potentially be useful for decision-makers, it could also be overwhelming. This is especially true for probabilistic and ensemble forecasting systems. While ensemble streamflow forecasts for a given point in space can be visualized relatively easily, the visualization and communication of probabilistic forecasts for water depth and extent pose additional challenges. Confusion typically arises from too much information, counterintuitive interpretation, or simply too much complexity in the representation of the forecast. The communication and visualization of probabilistic streamflow forecasts has been studied in the past, but this is not the case for the probabilistic flood forecast map, which is still an emerging product. In this paper, we synthesize the results of a large-scale survey (28 government representatives, 52 municipalities, 9 organizations, and 38 citizens and farmers, for a total of 140 people) regarding the users' preferences in terms of visualizing probabilistic flood forecasts over an entire river reach. The survey was performed through interviews, during which the interviewees were asked about their needs in terms of hydrological forecasting. We also presented the interviewees with four prototypes representing alternative visualizations of the same probabilistic forecast in order to understand their preferences in terms of colour maps, wording, and the representation of uncertainty. Our results highlight several issues related to the understanding of probabilities in the specific context of visualizing forecasted flood maps. We propose several suggestions for visualizing probabilistic flood maps and also describe potential adaptations for different categories of end users. This study is the first to investigate the visualization of probabilistic flood maps, which are gaining popularity. Given that the interview questions were not tied to a specific geographical location, our findings are applicable outside of the study area and, therefore, to other operational centres interested in providing probabilistic flood forecast maps to decision-making organizations and citizens.","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136152981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume","authors":"Francesco Fatone, Bartosz Szeląg, Przemysław Kowal, Arthur McGarity, Adam Kiczko, Grzegorz Wałek, Ewa Wojciechowska, Michał Stachura, Nicolas Caradot","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. An innovative tool for modeling the specific flood volume was presented that can be applied to assess the need for stormwater network modernization as well as for advanced flood risk assessment. Field measurements for a catchment area in Kielce, Poland, were used to apply the model and demonstrate its usefulness. This model extends the capability of recently developed statistical and machine learning hydrodynamic models developed from multiple runs of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The extensions enable the inclusion of (1) the characteristics of the catchment and its stormwater network, calibrated model parameters expressing catchment retention, and the capacity of the sewer system; (2) extended sensitivity analysis; and (3) risk analysis. Sensitivity coefficients of calibrated model parameters include correction coefficients for percentage area, flow path, depth of storage, and impervious area; Manning roughness coefficients for impervious areas; and Manning roughness coefficients for sewer channels. Sensitivity coefficients were determined with respect to rainfall intensity and characteristics of the catchment and stormwater network. Extended sensitivity analysis enabled an evaluation of the variability in the specific flood volume and sensitivity coefficients within a catchment, in order to identify the most vulnerable areas threatened by flooding. Thus, the model can be used to identify areas particularly susceptible to stormwater network failure and the sections of the network where corrective action should be taken to reduce the probability of system failure. The simulator developed to determine the specific flood volume represents an alternative approach to the SWMM that, unlike current approaches, can be calibrated with limited topological data availability; therefore, the aforementioned simulator incurs a lower cost due to the lower number and lower specificity of data required.","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":"181 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136314021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R","authors":"Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Coron","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Hydrological modeling is at the core of most studies related to water, especially for anticipating disasters, managing water resources, and planning adaptation strategies. Consequently, teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. Teaching hydrological modeling requires appropriate software and teaching material (exercises, projects); however, although many hydrological modeling tools exist today, only a few are adapted to teaching purposes. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source R package. The hydrological models that can be used in airGRteaching are the GR rainfall-runoff models, i.e., lumped processed-based models, allowing streamflows to be simulated, including the GR4J model. In this package, thanks to a graphical user interface and a limited number of functions, numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications are proposed. To ease its use by students and teachers, the package contains several vignettes describing complete projects that can be proposed to investigate various topics such as streamflow reconstruction, hydrological forecasting, and assessment of climate change impact.","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135552729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of precipitation measurement methods using data from a precision lysimeter network","authors":"Tobias Schnepper, Jannis Groh, Horst H. Gerke, Barbara Reichert, Thomas Pütz","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3265-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3265-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Accurate precipitation data are essential for assessing the water balance of ecosystems. Methods for point precipitation determination are influenced by wind, precipitation type and intensity and/or technical issues. High-precision weighable lysimeters provide precipitation measurements at ground level that are less affected by wind disturbances and are assumed to be relatively close to actual precipitation. The problem in previous studies was that the biases in precipitation data introduced by different precipitation measurement methods were not comprehensively compared with and quantified on the basis of those obtained by lysimeters in different regions in Germany. The aim was to quantify measurement errors in standard precipitation gauges as compared to the lysimeter reference and to analyze the effect of precipitation correction algorithms on the gauge data quality. Both correction methods rely on empirical constants to account for known external influences on the measurements, following a generic and a site-specific approach. Reference precipitation data were obtained from high-precision weighable lysimeters of the TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories (TERENO)-SOILCan lysimeter network. Gauge types included tipping bucket gauges (TBs), weighable gauges (WGs), acoustic sensors (ASs) and optical laser disdrometers (LDs). From 2015-2018, data were collected at three locations in Germany, and 1 h aggregated values for precipitation above a threshold of 0.1 mm h−1 were compared. The results show that all investigated measurement methods underestimated the precipitation amounts relative to the lysimeter references for long-term precipitation totals with catch ratios (CRs) of between 33 %–92 %. Data from ASs had overall biases of −0.25 to −0.07 mm h−1, while data from WGs and LDs showed the lowest measurement bias (−0.14 to −0.06 mm h−1 and −0.01 to −0.02 mm h−1). Two TBs showed systematic deviations with biases of −0.69 to −0.61 mm h−1, while other TBs were in the previously reported range with biases of −0.2 mm h−1. The site-specific and generic correction schemes reduced the hourly measurement bias by 0.13 and 0.08 mm h−1 for the TBs and by 0.09 and 0.07 mm h−1 for the WGs and increased long-term CRs by 14 % and 9 % and by 10 % and 11 %, respectively. It could be shown that the lysimeter reference operated with minor uncertainties in long-term measurements under different site and weather conditions. The results indicate that considerable precipitation measurement errors can occur even at well-maintained and professionally operated stations equipped with standard precipitation gauges. This generally leads to an underestimation of the actual precipitation amounts. The results suggest that the application of relatively simple correction schemes, manual or automated data quality checks, instrument calibrations, and/or an adequate choice of observation period can help improve the data quality of gauge-based measurements for water balanc","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135980712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards reducing the high cost of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling: a regional parameter sensitivity analysis approach","authors":"Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, B. Tolson, F. Zwiers","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Land surface models have many parameters that have a spatially variable impact on model outputs. In applying these models, sensitivity analysis (SA) is sometimes performed as an initial step to select calibration parameters. As these models are applied to large domains, performing sensitivity analysis across the domain is computationally prohibitive. Here, using a Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) deployment to a large domain as an example, we show that watershed classification based on climatic attributes and vegetation land cover helps to identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. We evaluate the sensitivity of 44 VIC model parameters with regard to streamflow, evapotranspiration and snow water equivalent over 25 basins with a median size of 5078 km2. Basins are clustered based on their climatic and land cover attributes. Performance in transferring parameter sensitivity between basins of the same cluster is evaluated by the F1 score. Results show that two donor basins per cluster are sufficient to correctly identify sensitive parameters in a target basin, with F1 scores ranging between 0.66 (evapotranspiration) and 1 (snow water equivalent). While climatic attributes are sufficient to identify sensitive parameters for streamflow and evapotranspiration, including the vegetation class significantly improves skill in identifying sensitive parameters for the snow water equivalent. This work reveals that there is opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to greatly increase the efficiency of parameter sensitivity analysis and facilitate more rapid deployment of land surface models over large spatial domains.\u0000","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45216015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calibration of groundwater seepage against the spatial distribution of the stream network to assess catchment-scale hydraulic properties","authors":"Ronan Abhervé, C. Roques, Alexandre Gauvain, L. Longuevergne, Stéphane Louaisil, Luc Aquilina, J. de Dreuzy","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3221-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3221-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The assessment of effective hydraulic properties at the catchment scale,\u0000i.e., hydraulic conductivity (K) and transmissivity (T), is particularly\u0000challenging due to the sparse availability of hydrological monitoring\u0000systems through stream gauges and boreholes. To overcome this challenge, we\u0000propose a calibration methodology which only considers information from a digital elevation model (DEM) and the spatial distribution of the stream\u0000network. The methodology is built on the assumption that the groundwater\u0000system is the main driver controlling the stream density and extension,\u0000where the perennial stream network reflects the intersection of the\u0000groundwater table with the topography. Indeed, the groundwater seepage at\u0000the surface is primarily controlled by the topography, the aquifer\u0000thickness and the dimensionless parameter K/R, where R is the average\u0000recharge rate. Here, we use a process-based and parsimonious 3D groundwater\u0000flow model to calibrate K/R by minimizing the relative distances between\u0000the observed and the simulated stream network generated from groundwater\u0000seepage zones. By deploying the methodology in 24 selected headwater\u0000catchments located in northwestern France, we demonstrate that the method\u0000successfully predicts the stream network extent for 80 % of the cases.\u0000Results show a high sensitivity of K/R to the extension of the low-order\u0000streams and limited impacts of the DEM resolution as long the DEM remains\u0000consistent with the stream network observations. By assuming an average\u0000recharge rate, we found that effective K values vary between 1.0×10-5 and 1.1×10-4 m s−1, in agreement with local estimates derived from hydraulic tests and independent calibrated groundwater model. With the emergence of global remote-sensing databases compiling information on high-resolution DEM and stream networks, this approach provides new opportunities to assess hydraulic properties of unconfined aquifers in ungauged basins.\u0000","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44526870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is the Priestley–Taylor wet-surface evaporation parameter? Testing four hypotheses","authors":"R. Crago, Joszef Szilagyi, R. Qualls","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3205-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study compares four different hypotheses regarding the nature\u0000of the Priestley–Taylor parameter α. They are as follows:\u0000 α is a universal constant. The Bowen ratio (H/LE, where H is the sensible heat flux, and LE is\u0000the latent heat flux) for equilibrium (i.e., saturated air column near the\u0000surface) evaporation is a constant times the Bowen ratio at minimal\u0000advection (Andreas et al., 2013). Minimal advection over a wet surface corresponds to a particular relative humidity value. α is a constant fraction of the difference from the minimum value of 1 to the maximum value of α proposed by Priestley and Taylor (1972).\u0000Formulas for α are developed for the last three hypotheses. Weather,\u0000radiation, and surface energy flux data from 171 FLUXNET eddy covariance\u0000stations were used. The condition LEref/LEp> 0.90 was\u0000taken as the criterion for nearly saturated conditions (where LEref is\u0000the reference, and LEp is the apparent potential evaporation rate from the equation by Penman, 1948). Daily and monthly average data from the sites were\u0000obtained. All formulations for α include one model parameter which\u0000is optimized such that the root mean square error of the target variable was\u0000minimized. For each model, separate optimizations were done for predictions\u0000of the target variables α, wet-surface evaporation (α\u0000multiplied by equilibrium evaporation rate) and actual evaporation (the\u0000latter using a highly successful version of the complementary relationship\u0000of evaporation). Overall, the second and fourth hypotheses received the best\u0000support from the data.\u0000","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42082224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium","authors":"M. Journée, E. Goudenhoofdt, S. Vannitsem, L. Delobbe","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3169-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The exceptional flood of July 2021 in central Europe impacted Belgium severely. As rainfall was the triggering factor of this event, this study aims to characterize rainfall amounts in Belgium from 13 to 16 July 2021 based on two types of observational data. First, observations recorded by high-quality rain gauges operated by weather and hydrological services in Belgium have been compiled and quality checked. Second, a radar-based rainfall product has been improved to provide a reliable estimation of quantitative precipitation at high spatial and temporal resolutions over Belgium. Several analyses of these data are performed here to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the event. These analyses indicate that the rainfall accumulations during the event reached unprecedented levels over large areas. Accumulations over durations from 1 to 3 d significantly exceeded the 200-year return level in several places, with up to 90 % of exceedance over the 200-year return level for 2 and 3 d values locally in the Vesdre Basin. Such a record-breaking event needs to be documented as much as possible, and available observational data must be shared with the scientific community for further studies in hydrology, in urban planning and, more generally, in all multi-disciplinary studies aiming to identify and understand factors leading to such disaster. The corresponding rainfall data are therefore provided freely in a supplement (Journée et al., 2023; Goudenhoofdt et al., 2023).\u0000","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46758681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven hypersedimentation in the Poechos Reservoir, northern Peru","authors":"A. Foucher, S. Morera, Michael Sanchez, J. Orrillo, O. Evrard","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3191-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3191-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Although extreme El Niño events (EENEs) have always impacted\u0000hydrological anomalies and sediment transport in South America, their\u0000intensification by global warming and their association with changes in\u0000human activities and land cover after humid periods may lead to the\u0000acceleration of sediment transfers in river systems and dam reservoirs. This\u0000situation may threaten soil and water resources in arid and semiarid regions\u0000highly dependent on water originating from large dams. In this study, we\u0000investigated the sediment sequence accumulated in the Poechos Reservoir\u0000(northern Peru) and provided a retrospective reconstruction of the\u0000interactions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), agricultural\u0000practices and vegetation cover changes with sediment dynamics (1978–2019). To\u0000this end, a sediment core was dated and characterized by physical and\u0000chemical analyses (e.g., scanner tomography, X-ray fluorescence, particle\u0000size analysis) to estimate the evolution of sedimentation rates and\u0000changes in sediment sources during the last 5 decades. Sediment tracing results indicated the occurrence of changes in sediment\u0000sources associated with positive and negative phases of the Eastern Pacific\u0000index with a greater contribution of the lowland dry-forest area in\u0000comparison to that of the Andean area to sediment during the El Niño\u0000events (mean contribution of 76 %; up to 90 % during the coastal El\u0000Niño events (CENEs) of 2016–2017). This source contribution was mostly\u0000controlled by the stationary rainfall occurring during the EENEs in the lowland dry-forest area characterized by a low vegetation cover. Overall, after an extreme phase of ENSO, like after the\u0000EENE 1982–1983, the normal discharges and persistent sediment supplies from\u0000the middle- and upper-catchment parts led to river aggradation and the\u0000storage of substantial amounts of sediment in alluvial plains. In the\u0000absence of a significant EENE between 1983 and 1997, the large volume of\u0000sediment stored in the alluvial plains was exported by the EENE 1997–1998\u0000resulting in an increase in sedimentation rate of 140 % after 1997 with\u0000a significant aggradation of the deltaic zone of the reservoir. In addition\u0000to the impact of extreme climate events on sediment dynamics, the\u0000development of agriculture along the riverine system after an extreme phase\u0000of ENSO increased the availability of sediments in the main channel of the\u0000rivers, easily transported by the next EENE. This study suggests that\u0000intensification of human activities associated with a higher frequency of\u0000extreme rainfall events amplified the quantity of sediment transported by\u0000the river system, which will significantly decrease the lifespan of the\u0000reservoir, which is essential to meeting the freshwater demands of the farmers and the\u0000populations living in this arid and semiarid region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43248203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach","authors":"Theresa Boas, H. Bogena, D. Ryu, H. Vereecken, A. Western, H. Hendricks Franssen","doi":"10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Long-range weather forecasts provide predictions of atmospheric, ocean and land surface conditions that can potentially be used in land surface and hydrological models to predict the water and energy status of the land surface or in crop growth models to predict yield for water resources or agricultural planning. However, the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of available forecast products have hindered their widespread use in such modelling applications, which usually require high-resolution input data. In this study, we applied sub-seasonal (up to 4 months) and seasonal (7 months) weather forecasts from the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) in a land surface modelling approach using the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5). Simulations were conducted for 2017–2020 forced with sub-seasonal and seasonal weather forecasts over two different domains with contrasting climate and cropping conditions: the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (DE-NRW) and the Australian state of Victoria (AUS-VIC). We found that, after pre-processing of the forecast products (i.e. temporal downscaling of precipitation and incoming short-wave radiation), the simulations forced with seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts were able to provide a model output that was very close to the reference simulation results forced by reanalysis data (the mean annual crop yield showed maximum differences of 0.28 and 0.36 t ha−1 for AUS-VIC and DE-NRW respectively). Differences between seasonal and sub-seasonal experiments were insignificant. The forecast experiments were able to satisfactorily capture recorded inter-annual variations of crop yield. In addition, they also reproduced the generally higher inter-annual differences in crop yield across the AUS-VIC domain (approximately 50 % inter-annual differences in recorded yields and up to 17 % inter-annual differences in simulated yields) compared to the DE-NRW domain (approximately 15 % inter-annual differences in recorded yields and up to 5 % in simulated yields). The\u0000high- and low-yield seasons (2020 and 2018) among the 4 simulated years\u0000were clearly reproduced in the forecast simulation results. Furthermore,\u0000sub-seasonal and seasonal simulations reflected the early harvest in the\u0000drought year of 2018 in the DE-NRW domain. However, simulated inter-annual yield variability was lower in all simulations compared to the\u0000official statistics. While general soil moisture trends, such as the\u0000European drought in 2018, were captured by the seasonal experiments, we\u0000found systematic overestimations and underestimations in both the forecast and reference simulations compared to the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-3 soil moisture product (SMAP L3) and the Soil Moisture Climate Change Initiative Combined dataset from the European Space Agency (ESA CCI). These observed biases of soil moisture and the low inter-annual differences in simulated crop yield indicat","PeriodicalId":13143,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47769390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}