Michael R Johnson, Hiten Naik, Wei Siang Chan, Jesse Greiner, Matt Michaleski, Dong Liu, Bruno Silvestre, Ian P McCarthy
{"title":"Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.","authors":"Michael R Johnson, Hiten Naik, Wei Siang Chan, Jesse Greiner, Matt Michaleski, Dong Liu, Bruno Silvestre, Ian P McCarthy","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09639-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10729-023-09639-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been considerable research on how regional and country-level forecasting can be used to anticipate required hospital resources. We add to and build on this work by focusing on ward-level forecasting and planning tools for hospital staff during the pandemic. We present an assessment, validation, and deployment of a working prototype forecasting tool used within a modified Traffic Control Bundling (TCB) protocol for resource planning during the pandemic. We compare statistical and machine learning forecasting methods and their accuracy at one of the largest hospitals (Vancouver General Hospital) in Canada against a medium-sized hospital (St. Paul's Hospital) in Vancouver, Canada through the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of British Columbia. Our results confirm that traditional statistical and machine learning (ML) forecasting methods can provide valuable ward-level forecasting to aid in decision-making for pandemic resource planning. Using point forecasts with upper 95% prediction intervals, such forecasting methods would have provided better accuracy in anticipating required beds on COVID-19 hospital units than ward-level capacity decisions made by hospital staff. We have integrated our methodology into a publicly available online tool that operationalizes ward-level forecasting to aid with capacity planning decisions. Importantly, hospital staff can use this tool to translate forecasts into better patient care, less burnout, and improved planning for all hospital resources during pandemics.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 3","pages":"477-500"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10191824/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10192806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aleida Braaksma, Martin S Copenhaver, Ana C Zenteno, Elizabeth Ugarph, Retsef Levi, Bethany J Daily, Benjamin Orcutt, Kathryn M Turcotte, Peter F Dunn
{"title":"Evaluation and implementation of a Just-In-Time bed-assignment strategy to reduce wait times for surgical inpatients.","authors":"Aleida Braaksma, Martin S Copenhaver, Ana C Zenteno, Elizabeth Ugarph, Retsef Levi, Bethany J Daily, Benjamin Orcutt, Kathryn M Turcotte, Peter F Dunn","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09638-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10729-023-09638-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Early bed assignments of elective surgical patients can be a useful planning tool for hospital staff; they provide certainty in patient placement and allow nursing staff to prepare for patients' arrivals to the unit. However, given the variability in the surgical schedule, they can also result in timing mismatches-beds remain empty while their assigned patients are still in surgery, while other ready-to-move patients are waiting for their beds to become available. In this study, we used data from four surgical units in a large academic medical center to build a discrete-event simulation with which we show how a Just-In-Time (JIT) bed assignment, in which ready-to-move patients are assigned to ready-beds, would decrease bed idle time and increase access to general care beds for all surgical patients. Additionally, our simulation demonstrates the potential synergistic effects of combining the JIT assignment policy with a strategy that co-locates short-stay surgical patients out of inpatient beds, increasing the bed supply. The simulation results motivated hospital leadership to implement both strategies across these four surgical inpatient units in early 2017. In the several months post-implementation, the average patient wait time decreased 25.0% overall, driven by decreases of 32.9% for ED-to-floor transfers (from 3.66 to 2.45 hours on average) and 37.4% for PACU-to-floor transfers (from 2.36 to 1.48 hours), the two major sources of admissions to the surgical floors, without adding additional capacity.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 3","pages":"501-515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10174583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Intraday dynamic rescheduling under patient no-shows.","authors":"Aditya Shetty, Harry Groenevelt, Vera Tilson","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09643-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10729-023-09643-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Patient no-shows are a major source of uncertainty for outpatient clinics. A common approach to hedge against the effect of no-shows is to overbook. The trade-off between patient's waiting costs and provider idling/overtime costs determines the optimal level of overbooking. Existing work on appointment scheduling assumes that appointment times cannot be updated once they have been assigned. However, advances in communication technology and the adoption of online (as opposed to in-person) appointments make it possible for appointments to be flexible. In this paper, we describe an intraday dynamic rescheduling model that adjusts upcoming appointments based on observed no-shows. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process in order to compute the optimal pre-day schedule and the optimal policy to update the schedule for every scenario of no-shows. We also propose an alternative formulation based on the idea of 'atomic' actions that allows us to apply a shortest path algorithm to solve for the optimal policy more efficiently. Based on a numerical study using parameter estimates from existing literature, we find that intraday dynamic rescheduling can reduce expected cost by 15% compared to static scheduling.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 3","pages":"583-598"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10530715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Márcia N F Manoel, Sérgio P Santos, Carla A F Amado
{"title":"Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of organ transplant services using data envelopment analysis.","authors":"Márcia N F Manoel, Sérgio P Santos, Carla A F Amado","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09637-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-023-09637-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Organ transplant is one of the best options for many medical conditions, and in many cases, it may be the only treatment option. Recent evidence suggests, however, that the COVID-19 pandemic might have detrimentally affected the provision of this type of healthcare services. The main purpose of this article is to use Data Envelopment Analysis and the Malmquist Index to assess the impact that the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 had on the provision of solid organ transplant services. To this purpose, we use three complementary models, each focusing on specific aspects of the organ donation and transplantation process, and data from Brazil, which has one of the most extensive public organ transplant programs in the world. Using data from 17 States plus the Federal District, the results of our analysis show a significant drop in the performance of the services in terms of the organ donation and transplantation process from 2018 to 2020, but the results also indicate that not all aspects of the process and States were equally affected. Furthermore, by using different models, this research also allows us to gain a more comprehensive and informative assessment of the performance of the States in delivering this type of service and identify opportunities for reciprocal learning, expanding our knowledge on this important issue and offering opportunities for further research.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"217-237"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10130802/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9606293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A two-stage partial fixing approach for solving the residency block scheduling problem.","authors":"Junhong Guo, William Pozehl, Amy Cohn","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09631-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-023-09631-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We consider constructing feasible annual block schedules for residents in a medical training program. We must satisfy coverage requirements to guarantee an acceptable staffing level for different services in the hospital as well as education requirements to ensure residents receive appropriate training to pursue their individual (sub-)specialty interests. The complex requirement structure makes this resident block scheduling problem a complicated combinatorial optimization problem. Solving a conventional integer program formulation for certain practical instances directly using traditional solution techniques will result in unacceptably slow performance. To address this, we propose a partial fixing approach, which completes the schedule construction iteratively through two sequential stages. The first stage focuses on the resident assignments for a small set of predetermined services through solving a much smaller and easier problem relaxation, while the second stage completes the rest of the schedule construction after fixing those assignments specified by the first stage's solution. We develop cut generation mechanisms to prune off the bad decisions made by the first stage if infeasibility arises in the second stage. We additionally propose a network-based model to assist us with an effective service selection for the first stage to work on the corresponding resident assignments to achieve an efficient and robust performance of the proposed two-stage iterative approach. Experiments using real-world inputs from our clinical collaborator show that our approach can speed up the schedule construction at least 5 times for all instances and even over 100 times for some huge-size instances compared to applying traditional techniques directly.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"363-393"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9605267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A two-stage stochastic optimization framework to allocate operating room capacity in publicly-funded hospitals under uncertainty.","authors":"Morteza Lalmazloumian, M Fazle Baki, Majid Ahmadi","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09644-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-023-09644-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Surgery demand is an uncertain parameter in addressing the problem of surgery block allocations, and its typical variability should be considered to ensure the feasibility of surgical planning. We develop two models, a stochastic recourse programming model and a two-stage stochastic optimization (SO) model with incorporated risk measure terms in the objective functions to determine a planning decision that is made to allocate surgical specialties to operating rooms (ORs). Our aim is to minimize the costs associated with postponements and unscheduled demands as well as the inefficient use of OR capacity. The results of these models are compared using a case of a real-life hospital to determine which model better copes with uncertainty. We propose a novel framework to transform the SO model based on its deterministic counterpart. Three SO models are proposed with respect to the variability and infeasibility of the measures of the objective function to encode the construction of the SO framework. The analysis of the experimental results demonstrates that the SO model offers better performance under a highly volatile demand environment than the recourse model. The originality of this work lies in its use of SO transformation framework and its development of stochastic models to address the problem of surgery capacity allocation based on a real case.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"238-260"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9605633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Machine learning for optimal test admission in the presence of resource constraints.","authors":"Ramy Elitzur, Dmitry Krass, Eyal Zimlichman","doi":"10.1007/s10729-022-09624-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10729-022-09624-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Developing rapid tools for early detection of viral infection is crucial for pandemic containment. This is particularly crucial when testing resources are constrained and/or there are significant delays until the test results are available - as was quite common in the early days of Covid-19 pandemic. We show how predictive analytics methods using machine learning algorithms can be combined with optimal pre-test screening mechanisms, greatly increasing test efficiency (i.e., rate of true positives identified per test), as well as to allow doctors to initiate treatment before the test results are available. Our optimal test admission policies account for imperfect accuracy of both the medical test and the model prediction mechanism. We derive the accuracy required for the optimized admission policies to be effective. We also show how our policies can be extended to re-testing high-risk patients, as well as combined with pool testing approaches. We illustrate our techniques by applying them to a large data reported by the Israeli Ministry of Health for RT-PCR tests from March to September 2020. Our results demonstrate that in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic a pre-test probability screening tool with conventional RT-PCR testing could have potentially increased efficiency by several times, compared to random admission control.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"279-300"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9838546/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9669575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samantha L Zimmerman, Alexander R Rutherford, Alexa van der Waall, Monica Norena, Peter Dodek
{"title":"A queuing model for ventilator capacity management during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Samantha L Zimmerman, Alexander R Rutherford, Alexa van der Waall, Monica Norena, Peter Dodek","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09632-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10729-023-09632-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We applied a queuing model to inform ventilator capacity planning during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The core of our framework is a multi-class Erlang loss model that represents ventilator use by both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Input for the model includes COVID-19 case projections, and our analysis incorporates projections with different levels of transmission due to public health measures and social distancing. We incorporated data from the BC Intensive Care Unit Database to calibrate and validate the model. Using discrete event simulation, we projected ventilator access, including when capacity would be reached and how many patients would be unable to access a ventilator. Simulation results were compared with three numerical approximation methods, namely pointwise stationary approximation, modified offered load, and fixed point approximation. Using this comparison, we developed a hybrid optimization approach to efficiently identify required ventilator capacity to meet access targets. Model projections demonstrate that public health measures and social distancing potentially averted up to 50 deaths per day in BC, by ensuring that ventilator capacity was not reached during the first wave of COVID-19. Without these measures, an additional 173 ventilators would have been required to ensure that at least 95% of patients can access a ventilator immediately. Our model enables policy makers to estimate critical care utilization based on epidemic projections with different transmission levels, thereby providing a tool to quantify the interplay between public health measures, necessary critical care resources, and patient access indicators.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"200-216"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10201510/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9990362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kevin Taaffe, Yann B Ferrand, Amin Khoshkenar, Lawrence Fredendall, Dee San, Patrick Rosopa, Anjali Joseph
{"title":"Operating room design using agent-based simulation to reduce room obstructions.","authors":"Kevin Taaffe, Yann B Ferrand, Amin Khoshkenar, Lawrence Fredendall, Dee San, Patrick Rosopa, Anjali Joseph","doi":"10.1007/s10729-022-09622-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-022-09622-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study seeks to improve the safety of clinical care provided in operating rooms (OR) by examining how characteristics of both the physical environment and the procedure affect surgical team movement and contacts. We video recorded staff movements during a set of surgical procedures. Then we divided the OR into multiple zones and analyzed the frequency and duration of movement from origin to destination through zones. This data was abstracted into a generalized, agent-based, discrete event simulation model to study how OR size and OR equipment layout affected surgical staff movement and total number of surgical team contacts during a procedure. A full factorial experiment with seven input factors - OR size, OR shape, operating table orientation, circulating nurse (CN) workstation location, team size, number of doors, and procedure type - was conducted. Results were analyzed using multiple linear regression with surgical team contacts as the dependent variable. The OR size, the CN workstation location, and team size significantly affected surgical team contacts. Also, two- and three-way interactions between staff, procedure type, table orientation, and CN workstation location significantly affected contacts. We discuss implications of these findings for OR managers and for future research about designing future ORs.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"261-278"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10369668/pdf/nihms-1909061.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10249264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Priority-based replenishment policy for robotic dispensing in central fill pharmacy systems: a simulation-based study.","authors":"Nieqing Cao, Austin Marcus, Lubna Altarawneh, Soongeol Kwon","doi":"10.1007/s10729-023-09630-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-023-09630-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In recent years, companies that operate pharmacy store chains have adopted centralized and automated fulfillment systems, which are called Central Fill Pharmacy Systems (CFPS). The Robotic Dispensing System (RDS) plays a crucial role by automatically storing, counting, and dispensing various medication pills to enable CFPS to fulfill high-volume prescriptions safely and efficiently. Although the RDS is highly automated by robots and software, medication pills in the RDS should still be replenished by operators in a timely manner to prevent the shortage of medication pills that causes huge delays in prescription fulfillment. Because the complex dynamics of the CFPS and manned operations are closely associated with the RDS replenishment process, there is a need for systematic approaches to developing a proper replenishment control policy. This study proposes an improved priority-based replenishment policy, which is able to generate a real-time replenishment sequence for the RDS. In particular, the policy is based on a novel criticality function calculating the refilling urgency for a canister and corresponding dispenser, which takes the inventory level and consumption rates of medication pills into account. A 3D discrete-event simulation is developed to emulate the RDS operations in the CFPS to evaluate the proposed policy based on various measurements numerically. The numerical experiment shows that the proposed priority-based replenishment policy can be easily implemented to enhance the RDS replenishment process by preventing over 90% of machine inventory shortages and saving nearly 80% product fulfillment delays.</p>","PeriodicalId":12903,"journal":{"name":"Health Care Management Science","volume":"26 2","pages":"344-362"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10008078/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9988803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}