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The net warming effect of clouds on global surface temperature may be weakening or even disappearing 云对全球地表温度的净变暖效应可能正在减弱甚至消失
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102107
Chuanye Shi , Tianxing Wang , Gaofeng Wang , Husi Letu
{"title":"The net warming effect of clouds on global surface temperature may be weakening or even disappearing","authors":"Chuanye Shi ,&nbsp;Tianxing Wang ,&nbsp;Gaofeng Wang ,&nbsp;Husi Letu","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is significantly influenced by both clouds and Earth’s surface temperature (EST). While numerous studies have investigated clouds and EST separately, the extent of clouds’ impact on EST remains unclear. Based on the inspiration and limitation of cloud radiative effect (CRE), this study provides a pioneering attempt to propose a novel indicator, cloud radiative effect on surface temperature (CREST), aiming to quantify how clouds affect EST globally while also analyzing the physical mechanism. Using reanalysis and remotely sensed data, a phased machine learning scheme in combination of surface energy balance theory is proposed to estimate EST under all-sky and hypothetical clear-sky conditions in stages, thereby estimating the newly defined CREST by subtracting the hypothetical clear-sky EST from the all-sky EST. The inter-annual experiments reveal the significant spatial heterogeneity in CREST across land, ocean, and ice/snow regions. As a global offset of the heterogeneity, clouds exhibit a net warming effect on global surface temperature on an annual scale (e.g., 0.26 K in 1981), despite their ability to block sunlight. However, the net warming effect has gradually weakened to nearly zero over the past four decades (e.g., only 0.06 K in 2021), and it’s even possible to transform into a cooling effect, which might be good news for mitigating the global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102107"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144557382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effusive and explosive silicic eruptions during India-Seychelles continental breakup: the 62.5 Ma Dongri-Uttan rhyolite sequence, Mumbai area, western Deccan Traps 印度-塞舌尔大陆分裂期间的喷流和爆炸性硅质喷发:西德干圈闭孟买地区62.5 Ma Dongri-Uttan流纹岩层序
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102106
Arunodaya Shekhar , Hetu Sheth , Anmol Naik , B. Astha
{"title":"Effusive and explosive silicic eruptions during India-Seychelles continental breakup: the 62.5 Ma Dongri-Uttan rhyolite sequence, Mumbai area, western Deccan Traps","authors":"Arunodaya Shekhar ,&nbsp;Hetu Sheth ,&nbsp;Anmol Naik ,&nbsp;B. Astha","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large-scale Danian-age (post-K/Pg boundary) Deccan magmatism is well known from the Mumbai metropolitan area, located in the structurally complex Panvel flexure zone along the western Indian rifted continental margin. This compositionally diverse late-Deccan magmatic suite contains subaerial tholeiitic lavas and dykes typical of the main Deccan province, with many features atypical of the Deccan, such as spilitic pillow lavas, “intertrappean” sediments (often containing considerable volcanic ash), rhyolitic lavas and tuffs, gabbro-granophyre intrusions, and trachyte intrusions containing alkali basalt enclaves. Most of these units, previously dated at 62.5 Ma to 61 Ma, are contemporaneous with or slightly postdate the 62.5 Ma India-Seychelles continental breakup and Panvel flexure formation. In the Dongri-Uttan area, two samples of a &gt;50-m-thick, columnar-jointed rhyolite from the Darkhan Quarry and from a section behind the current Uttan Sagari Police Station have previously been dated at 62.6 ± 0.6 Ma and 62.9 ± 0.2 Ma (<sup>40</sup>Ar/<sup>39</sup>Ar, 2σ errors). New exposures reveal that these two statistically indistinguishable <sup>40</sup>Ar/<sup>39</sup>Ar ages correspond to two distinct rhyolite units, separated by well-bedded silicic ash. The columnar rhyolites are microcrystalline, composed of quartz and alkali feldspar, with rare small (1–2 mm), altered feldspar phenocrysts, and no recognisable relict vitroclasts. Given the westerly structural dip, most of their lateral extent is submerged under the Arabian Sea, and we consider them to be possible <em>flood rhyolite</em> lavas. We interpret the ash beds, composed of pumice clasts and glass shards, as a low-grade (nonwelded) vitric ash, derived from a possibly distal Plinian eruption and deposited by fallout. The lavas and ash are peraluminous rhyolites. The lavas are Sr-Ba-poor and Rb-Zr-Nb-rich, and show “seagull-shaped” rare earth element patterns with deep negative europium anomalies. These crystal-poor lavas are “hot-dry-reduced” rhyolites typical of intraplate, continental rift and rifted margin settings. The very different high-field strength element contents of the lavas and the ash indicate compositionally distinct magma batches. The 62.5 Ma Dongri-Uttan sequence provides clear evidence for rapid silicic eruptions of effusive and explosive nature, alternating with each other and sourced from distinct magma chambers and eruptive vents. A newly identified, highly feldspar-phyric trachyte intrusion marks the last phase of magmatic activity in the area, corresponding with late-stage trachyte-syenite intrusions exposed in coastal western India and the Seychelles, and shows that the Mumbai rhyolites and trachytes form a compositional continuum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102106"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the groundwater recharge processes in intensively irrigated regions: An approach combining isotope hydrology and machine learning 密集灌区地下水补给过程评估:同位素水文学与机器学习相结合的方法
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102105
Md. Arzoo Ansari , Jacob Noble , U.Saravana Kumar , Archana Deodhar , Naima Akhtar , Priyanka Singh , Rishi Raj
{"title":"Assessing the groundwater recharge processes in intensively irrigated regions: An approach combining isotope hydrology and machine learning","authors":"Md. Arzoo Ansari ,&nbsp;Jacob Noble ,&nbsp;U.Saravana Kumar ,&nbsp;Archana Deodhar ,&nbsp;Naima Akhtar ,&nbsp;Priyanka Singh ,&nbsp;Rishi Raj","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agriculture is a major contributor to the global economy, accounting for approximately 70% of the freshwater use, which cause significant stress on aquifers in intensively irrigated regions. This stress often leads to the decline in both the quantity and quality of groundwater resources. This study is focused on an intensively irrigated region of Northern India to investigate the sources and mechanism of groundwater recharge using a novel integrated approach combining isotope hydrology, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and hydrogeochemical models. The study identifies several key sources of groundwater recharge, including natural precipitation, river infiltration, Irrigation Return Flow (IRF), and recharge from canals. Some groundwater samples exhibit mixing from various sources. Groundwater recharge from IRF is found to be isotopically enriched due to evaporation and characterized by high Cl<sup>−</sup>. Stable isotope modeling of evaporative enrichment in irrigated water helped to differentiate the IRF during various cultivation periods (<em>Kharif</em> and <em>Rabi</em>) and deduce the climatic conditions prevailed during the time of recharge. The model quantified that 29% of the irrigated water is lost due to evaporation during the <em>Kharif</em> period and 20% during the <em>Rabi</em> period, reflecting the seasonal variations in IRF contribution to the groundwater. The ANN model, trained with isotope hydrogeochemical data, effectively captures the complex interrelationships between various recharge sources, providing a robust framework for understanding the groundwater dynamics in the study area. A conceptual model was developed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge sources, highlighting how seasonal irrigation practices influence the groundwater. The integration of isotope hydrology with ANN methodologies proved to be effective in elucidating the multiple sources and processes of groundwater recharge, offering insights into the sustainability of aquifer systems in intensively irrigated regions. These findings are critical for developing data-driven groundwater management strategies that can adapt to future challenges, including climate change, shifting land use patterns, and evolving agricultural demands. The results have significant implications for policymakers and water resource managers seeking to ensure sustainable groundwater use in water-scarce regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102105"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal effects on groundwater fluoride and evaluating health hazards: In-situ remediation via managed aquifer recharge 地下水氟化物的季节性影响和健康危害评价:通过管理含水层补给进行原位修复
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102102
D. Karunanidhi , Meera Rajan , Priyadarsi D. Roy , T. Subramani
{"title":"Seasonal effects on groundwater fluoride and evaluating health hazards: In-situ remediation via managed aquifer recharge","authors":"D. Karunanidhi ,&nbsp;Meera Rajan ,&nbsp;Priyadarsi D. Roy ,&nbsp;T. Subramani","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research examines the hard-rock aquifer system within the Nagavathi River Basin (NRB) South India, by evaluating seasonal fluctuations in groundwater composition during the pre-monsoon (PRM) and post-monsoon (POM) periods. Seasonal variations significantly influence the groundwater quality, particularly fluoride (F<sup>−</sup>) concentrations, which can fluctuate due to changes in recharge, evaporation, and anthropogenic activities. This study assesses the dynamics of F<sup>−</sup> levels in PRM and POM seasons, and identifies elevated health risks using USEPA guidelines and Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). Groundwater in the study area exhibits alkaline pH, with NaCl and Ca-Na-HCO<sub>3</sub> facies increasing in the POM season due to intensified ion exchange and rock-water interactions, as indicated in Piper and Gibb’s diagrams. Correlation and dendrogram analyses indicate that F<sup>−</sup> contamination is from geogenic and anthropogenic sources. F<sup>−</sup> levels exceed the WHO limit (1.5 mg/L) in 51 PRM and 28 POM samples, affecting 371.74 km<sup>2</sup> and 203.05 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Geochemical processes, including mineral weathering, cation exchange, evaporation, and dilution, are identified through CAI I &amp; II. Health risk assessments reveal that HQ values &gt;1 in 78% of children, 73% of teens, and 68% of adults during PRM, decreasing to 45%, 40%, and 38%, respectively, in POM. MCS show maximum HQ values of 5.67 (PRM) and 4.73 (POM) in children, with all age groups facing significant risks from fluoride ingestion. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is recommended in this study to minimize F<sup>−</sup> contamination, ensuring safe drinking water for the community.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102102"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Characteristics and distribution of late Carboniferous to early Permian wildfires and their controlling factors 晚石炭世—早二叠世野火特征、分布及其控制因素
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102100
Yanan Li , Jingqi Xue , Shuai Wang , Zhaorui Ye , Jiao Fang , Xiongxiong Li
{"title":"Characteristics and distribution of late Carboniferous to early Permian wildfires and their controlling factors","authors":"Yanan Li ,&nbsp;Jingqi Xue ,&nbsp;Shuai Wang ,&nbsp;Zhaorui Ye ,&nbsp;Jiao Fang ,&nbsp;Xiongxiong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The late Carboniferous to early Permian period is renowned for extensive coal formation and frequent paleowildfires. Nonetheless, the nature and distribution of these wildfires varied significantly over time. In an effort to elucidate the patterns of paleowildfires during the late Paleozoic Ice Age and to probe into the controlling mechanisms of paleowildfires under icehouse conditions, a comprehensive analysis was performed on coal samples from the Taiyuan and Shanxi formations within the Dacheng coalfield of Hebei Province, North China. The dataset was augmented with global inertinite data from the late Carboniferous to early Permian periods and was compared to paleowildfire patterns from the Pliocene to Holocene epochs. The results show that paleowildfires in the Dacheng coalfield of North China transitioned from moderate-scale, low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, relatively high-intensity ground fires. Globally, the distribution of paleowildfires shifted from Euramerica to Gondwana, Cathaysia, and Angara from 300 Ma to 290 Ma, accompanied by a corresponding increase in inertinite content. This spatial and temporal variation in wildfire activity appears to have been strongly influenced by paleoclimate and atmospheric conditions. At 300 Ma, cooler and wetter paleoclimate, coupled with relatively low atmospheric <em>p</em>O<sub>2</sub> levels, likely contributed to a reduced incidence of paleowildfires. In contrast, at 290 Ma, warmer paleoclimate, higher atmospheric <em>p</em>O<sub>2</sub> levels, and the flourishing mires in Gondwana, Cathaysia, and Angara were conducive to more intense paleowildfires. This pattern is further supported by the comparison to more recent icehouse periods. Similar to the late Carboniferous–early Permian period, wildfire activity increased from the Pliocene to the Holocene, highlighting the critical role of climatic conditions in driving wildfire proliferation under icehouse conditions. However, the Pleistocene to Holocene wildfires were less intense than those of the late Carboniferous–early Permian, suggesting that atmospheric oxygen concentrations played a key role in modulating the evolution of the fire systems over geological timescales. These findings underscore the complex interplay between climate, atmospheric composition, and vegetation in shaping wildfire dynamics across Earth’s history.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102100"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144490310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A snapshot of subduction initiation within a back-arc basin: Insights from Shiquanhe ophiolite, western Tibet 弧后盆地俯冲起始的快照:来自藏西狮泉河蛇绿岩的启示
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102088
Wei-Liang Liu , Hui Liang , Harald Furnes , Xu Zhang , Qing-Gao Zeng , Yao-Liang Ma , Chi Yan , Ru-Xin Ding , Yun Zhong , Run-Xi Gu
{"title":"A snapshot of subduction initiation within a back-arc basin: Insights from Shiquanhe ophiolite, western Tibet","authors":"Wei-Liang Liu ,&nbsp;Hui Liang ,&nbsp;Harald Furnes ,&nbsp;Xu Zhang ,&nbsp;Qing-Gao Zeng ,&nbsp;Yao-Liang Ma ,&nbsp;Chi Yan ,&nbsp;Ru-Xin Ding ,&nbsp;Yun Zhong ,&nbsp;Run-Xi Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Back-arc basins are key sites for oceanic lithosphere formation and consumption at convergent plate boundaries, and their formation and subduction processes can be highly variable. The tectonic setting and evolution of the Meso-Tethys Shiquanhe-Jiali ophiolite sub-belt (SJO sub-belt) within Bangong-Nujiang Suture Zone (BNSZ), central Tibet, are disputed for the complex rock composition and ages. In this paper, we present geochronology, geochemistry and field observations on the Shiquanhe ophiolite, providing a representative ophiolite example in the western end of SJO. Based on investigation of the petrogenesis and tectonic setting of different rock types, combined with the U-Pb dating, we propose a two-stage subduction model for explaining the tectonic evolution of SJO as well as the wither away of a back-arc basin. Geochemical and geochronological data indicate that the ca. 183 Ma LAN (north of Lameila) gabbros formed in the forearc setting and represent the early-stage subduction of the Bangong Meso-Tethys. This subduction induced the back-arc spreading recorded in the ca. 170 Ma gabbros and lower pillow basalts of PL-SDN (Pagelizanong-Shiquanhe Dam Nan) ophiolitic fragments in the Shiquanhe ophiolite. The basaltic lavas overlying the lower basalts, represented by the ca. 168–164 Ma diabasic and boninite dikes have forearc characteristics, and they represent the back-arc basin subduction initiation at a late stage. This work thus recovered the multiple tectonic evolution of SJO sub-belt and emphasise the importance of the back-arc basin subduction in the evolution of ancient oceans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102088"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficient rock joint detection from large-scale 3D point clouds using vectorization and parallel computing approaches 基于矢量化和并行计算方法的大规模三维点云岩石节理检测
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102085
Yunfeng Ge , Zihao Li , Huiming Tang , Qian Chen , Zhongxu Wen
{"title":"Efficient rock joint detection from large-scale 3D point clouds using vectorization and parallel computing approaches","authors":"Yunfeng Ge ,&nbsp;Zihao Li ,&nbsp;Huiming Tang ,&nbsp;Qian Chen ,&nbsp;Zhongxu Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The application of three-dimensional (3D) point cloud parametric analyses on exposed rock surfaces, enabled by Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology, has gained significant popularity due to its efficiency and the high quality of data it provides. However, as research extends to address more regional and complex geological challenges, the demand for algorithms that are both robust and highly efficient in processing large datasets continues to grow. This study proposes an advanced rock joint identification algorithm leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs), incorporating parallel computing and vectorization of high-performance computing. The algorithm utilizes point cloud attributes—specifically point normal and point curvatures—as input parameters for ANNs, which classify data into rock joints and non-rock joints. Subsequently, individual rock joints are extracted using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) technique. Principal component analysis (PCA) is subsequently employed to calculate their orientations. By fully utilizing the computational power of parallel computing and vectorization, the algorithm increases the running speed by 3–4 times, enabling the processing of large-scale datasets within seconds. This breakthrough maximizes computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy (compared with manual measurement, the deviation of the automatic measurement is within 2°), making it an effective solution for large-scale rock joint detection challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 5","pages":"Article 102085"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144270561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global projections of future landslide susceptibility under climate change 气候变化下未来滑坡易感性的全球预估
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102074
Yu Duan , Mingtao Ding , Yufeng He , Hao Zheng , Ricardo Delgado-Téllez , Sergey Sokratov , Francisco Dourado , Sven Fuchs
{"title":"Global projections of future landslide susceptibility under climate change","authors":"Yu Duan ,&nbsp;Mingtao Ding ,&nbsp;Yufeng He ,&nbsp;Hao Zheng ,&nbsp;Ricardo Delgado-Téllez ,&nbsp;Sergey Sokratov ,&nbsp;Francisco Dourado ,&nbsp;Sven Fuchs","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides pose a significant threat to both human society and environmental sustainability, yet, their spatiotemporal evolution and impacts on global scales in the context of a warming climate remain poorly understood. In this study, we projected global landslide susceptibility under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2021 to 2100, utilizing multiple machine learning models based on precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) and static metrics. Our results indicate an overall upward trend in global landslide susceptibility under the SSPs compared to the baseline period (2001–2020), with the most significant increase of about 1% in the very far future (2081–2100) under the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Currently, approximately 13% of the world’s land area is at very high risk of landslide, mainly in the Cordillera of the Americas and the Andes in South America, the Alps in Europe, the Ethiopian Highlands in Africa, the Himalayas in Asia, and the countries of East and South-East Asia. Notably, India is the country most adversely affected by climate change, particularly during 2081–2100 under SSP3-7.0, with approximately 590 million people—23 times the global average—living in areas categorized as having very high susceptibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 4","pages":"Article 102074"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144239781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geodynamic record of Rodinia breakup to Gondwana formation: Insights from bulk geochemistry, whole-rock Sr-Nd isotopes, and zircon U-Pb-Hf data of Katherina Ring Complex, Sinai Peninsula, Egypt 埃及西奈半岛Katherina环杂岩Rodinia碎裂至Gondwana组的地球动力学记录:整体地球化学、全岩Sr-Nd同位素和锆石U-Pb-Hf数据
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102082
Mohamed Faisal , Huan Li , Chao Sun , Muhammad A. Gul , Abdulgafar K. Amuda , Wenbo Sun , Jar Ullah , Ibrahim H. Khalifa , Sara Mustafa
{"title":"Geodynamic record of Rodinia breakup to Gondwana formation: Insights from bulk geochemistry, whole-rock Sr-Nd isotopes, and zircon U-Pb-Hf data of Katherina Ring Complex, Sinai Peninsula, Egypt","authors":"Mohamed Faisal ,&nbsp;Huan Li ,&nbsp;Chao Sun ,&nbsp;Muhammad A. Gul ,&nbsp;Abdulgafar K. Amuda ,&nbsp;Wenbo Sun ,&nbsp;Jar Ullah ,&nbsp;Ibrahim H. Khalifa ,&nbsp;Sara Mustafa","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS) serves as a key geological archive, preserving the tectono-thermal evolution associated with the Rodinia breakup (∼900–800 Ma) and Gondwana formation (∼800–620 Ma). The Katherina Ring Complex (KRC), located in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt (northern ANS), exemplifies continental growth through multistage magmatism and orogenesis, spanning the Tonian to Ediacaran periods (∼900–530 Ma). Despite its importance, debates persist regarding the nature, age, crustal characteristics, and magma source evolution of its constituent units. Situated in the northwestern part of the KRC, the Wadi Rofaiyed Cu deposit offers an exceptional natural laboratory for investigating continental crust formation during this interval, owing to its superb exposure and preservation. This study integrates detailed fieldwork, petrographic analyses, whole-rock geochemistry, Sr-Nd isotopes, and in situ zircon U-Pb-Lu-Hf isotopic data. It aims to (i) establish a robust chronological framework for the unmetamorphosed plutonic rocks of the KRC, (ii) advance the understanding of associated geodynamic processes, and (iii) elucidate the episodic magmatism events. The findings show that Wadi Rofaiyed juvenile crust developed in four main phases: (i) a subduction-accretionary phase (∼755 Ma) characterized by intense calc-alkaline magmatism, originating from the partial melting of mafic lower crust; (ii) a syn-collisional phase (∼630 Ma) occurred during the collision between the Saharan metacraton and the younger ANS crust, producing I-type granitoids formed through magma mixing and crustal anatexis; (iii) a post-collisional phase characterized by intermediate I-type (∼595 Ma) to felsic A-type alkaline magma (∼594 Ma), originated from the partial melting of the overthickened lower crust corresponding to lithospheric delamination; and (iv) an anorogenic phase (∼530 Ma) related to the final amalgamation of Greater Gondwana. Isotopic analyses across all four magmatic phases reveal low initial <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr (0.702648–0.703311) and positive <em>ε</em><sub>Hf</sub>(<em>t</em>) (+2.84 to +7.78) and <em>ε</em><sub>Nd</sub>(<em>t</em>) (+2.61 to +5.21) values, consistent with lower crustal sources with depleted mantle-like signatures. The model ages (<em>T</em><sub>DM2</sub>) for these magmatic rocks derived from zircon Hf (1.2–1.5 Ga) and whole-rock Nd isotopes (0.96–1.17 Ga) support a predominantly juvenile crustal origin. These findings underscore the multistage tectono-magmatic evolution of the northern ANS, advancing our understanding of obduction-accretion dynamics and crustal development during the Neoproterozoic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 4","pages":"Article 102082"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144222522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme gradient boosting with Shapley Additive Explanations for landslide susceptibility at slope unit and hydrological response unit scales 斜坡单元和水文响应单元尺度上滑坡敏感性的Shapley加性解释
IF 8.5 1区 地球科学
Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2025-05-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102081
Ananta Man Singh Pradhan , Pramit Ghimire , Suchita Shrestha , Ji-Sung Lee , Jung-Hyun Lee , Hyuck-Jin Park
{"title":"Extreme gradient boosting with Shapley Additive Explanations for landslide susceptibility at slope unit and hydrological response unit scales","authors":"Ananta Man Singh Pradhan ,&nbsp;Pramit Ghimire ,&nbsp;Suchita Shrestha ,&nbsp;Ji-Sung Lee ,&nbsp;Jung-Hyun Lee ,&nbsp;Hyuck-Jin Park","doi":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides an in-depth comparative evaluation of landslide susceptibility using two distinct spatial units: and slope units (SUs) and hydrological response units (HRUs), within Goesan County, South Korea. Leveraging the capabilities of the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), this work assesses the precision and clarity with which each unit predicts areas vulnerable to landslides. SUs focus on the geomorphological features like ridges and valleys, focusing on slope stability and landslide triggers. Conversely, HRUs are established based on a variety of hydrological factors, including land cover, soil type and slope gradients, to encapsulate the dynamic water processes of the region. The methodological framework includes the systematic gathering, preparation and analysis of data, ranging from historical landslide occurrences to topographical and environmental variables like elevation, slope angle and land curvature etc. The XGB algorithm used to construct the Landslide Susceptibility Model (LSM) was combined with SHAP for model interpretation and the results were evaluated using Random Cross-validation (RCV) to ensure accuracy and reliability. To ensure optimal model performance, the XGB algorithm’s hyperparameters were tuned using Differential Evolution, considering multicollinearity-free variables. The results show that SU and HRU are effective for LSM, but their effectiveness varies depending on landscape characteristics. The XGB algorithm demonstrates strong predictive power and SHAP enhances model transparency of the influential variables involved. This work underscores the importance of selecting appropriate assessment units tailored to specific landscape characteristics for accurate LSM. The integration of advanced machine learning techniques with interpretative tools offers a robust framework for landslide susceptibility assessment, improving both predictive capabilities and model interpretability. Future research should integrate broader data sets and explore hybrid analytical models to strengthen the generalizability of these findings across varied geographical settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12711,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience frontiers","volume":"16 4","pages":"Article 102081"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144239776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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