2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献_第2页

Linear Probabilistic Power Flow for Islanded Microgrids 孤岛微电网的线性概率潮流

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183485

E. Moreira, E. Chagas, A. Rodrigues, M. da Guia da Silva

引用次数: 2

Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates 应用贝叶斯估计个别输电线路的中断率

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183429

Kai Zhou, J. Cruise, Chris J. I kill, I. Dobson, L. Wehenkel, Zhaoyu Wang, Amy L. Wilson

引用次数: 1

Probabilistic Method for Transmission System Pricing Considering Intermittence of Wind Power Sources 考虑风力发电间歇性的输电系统定价的概率方法

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183543

Victor F. Zwetkoff, J. G. C. Costa, A. M. Leite da Silva

引用次数: 1

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183500

C. J. Wallnerström, M. Dalheim, Mihai Seratelius, T. Johansson

{"title":"Power outage related statistics in Sweden since the early 2000s and evaluation of reliability trends","authors":"C. J. Wallnerström, M. Dalheim, Mihai Seratelius, T. Johansson","doi":"10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183500","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents statistics based on over 15 years of power outage related data in Sweden collected by the national regulatory authority (NRA). In the early 2000s, Sweden introduced its first economic incentive scheme regarding continuity of supply (CoS) for power distribution system operators (DSO). For this purpose, the NRA began to collect power outage data from each DSO on an aggregated level. A few years later, in 2005, a severe hurricane struck Sweden that highlighted the vulnerability of the Swedish power system, resulting in a new regulatory framework related to power outages. To be able to effectively monitor the CoS in Sweden, the NRA began in 2010 to collect data on power outages on a customer level. Since 2012 a new revenue cap regulation with economic CoS incentives was implemented with major revisions from 2016 and 2020 respectively.The amount of detailed data available enables the NRA to closely monitor the CoS in the Swedish power grid. As a result of the stricter rules on power outages, there have been major investments in more reliable power distribution systems over the past decade. A positive tendency can be seen even if the CoS fluctuates from year to year due to e.g. weather events. The CoS is slightly better for years with mild weather and the impact on the CoS is less negative for years with severe storms, even if it is still far from good enough. The aim of this paper is to publish statistics with some concluding remarks from the NRA. We believe that sharing our experiences from Sweden may be of value for others, e.g. when developing new laws and regulations. The paper also contributes by informing about available data related to Swedish power outages for others to use when comparing countries or developing probabilistic models.","PeriodicalId":126918,"journal":{"name":"2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116211267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Distributed Model-free Control in Low Voltage Distribution Networks: A Mean Field Approach 低压配电网的分布式无模型控制:一种平均场方法

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183398

Boyuan Wei, G. Deconinck

引用次数: 3

Variability Reduction of Wind Power using Aggregation and Energy Storage 利用聚合和储能减少风能的可变性

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183515

Atri Bera, N. Nguyen, Saad Alzahrani, Khalil Sinjari, J. Mitra

{"title":"Variability Reduction of Wind Power using Aggregation and Energy Storage","authors":"Atri Bera, N. Nguyen, Saad Alzahrani, Khalil Sinjari, J. Mitra","doi":"10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183515","url":null,"abstract":"Integration of wind energy into the grid poses serious challenges to the system reliability due to its intermittent nature. Variability of wind can be mitigated using various methods including deployment of energy storage systems (ESS), aggregation of geographically diverse wind, and the use of flexible loads. This paper proposes a novel method for reducing the variability of wind power by both deploying ESS and aggregating geographically diverse wind production. Although the aggregation of geographically diverse wind can reduce its intermittency to some extent, the benefits of this approach are limited due to a number of factors which are discussed in this paper. ESS, on the other hand, have been widely used for variability mitigation of wind and achieving reliability targets. However, ESS projects are expensive. In this context, this paper studies the impact of reliability enhancement of a system and the reduction in storage size by aggregating wind power from geographically diverse wind farms. The proposed approach is validated by performing sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) using the IEEE Reliability Test System data. Results show that aggregation of geographically diverse wind can significantly reduce the size of ESS required for improving the reliability of the system.","PeriodicalId":126918,"journal":{"name":"2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132076501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Risk Assessment for the Amount of Transmission System Usage Penalties via Probabilistic Load Flow 基于概率负荷流的输电系统使用惩罚量风险评估

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183692

André Milhorance, A. M. Leite da Silva, Érica Telles, A. Street

引用次数: 2

Parameter Estimation in Three-Phase Power Distribution Networks Using Smart Meter Data 基于智能电表数据的三相配电网参数估计

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183638

Wenyu Wang, N. Yu

引用次数: 8

Nonconvex Environmental Constraints in Hydropower Scheduling 水电调度中的非凸环境约束

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183590

A. Helseth, B. Mo, Hans Olaf Hågenvik

引用次数: 6

Temperature Driven Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling of Electricity Demand, Capacity, and Adequacy 电力需求、容量和充分性的温度驱动贝叶斯概率模型

2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183613

Elyas Ahmed, Daniel Sohm

{"title":"Temperature Driven Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling of Electricity Demand, Capacity, and Adequacy","authors":"Elyas Ahmed, Daniel Sohm","doi":"10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183613","url":null,"abstract":"The declining costs for various distributed energy resources such as solar and energy storage is driving an increase in the penetration level of these resources at the grid’s edge. The electricity market operator must account for these changes to effectively plan the system’s demand, supply, and adequacy for various scenarios. This paper proposes a simplified methodology to create a probabilistic model of demand and supply which can be used to model resource adequacy as a function of temperature. This adequacy model is then translated to describe adequacy by duration of need. This description can then inform the duration of service needed from limited energy storage resources to reduce the probability of load being unserved. We first use a Bayesian additive model to infer the relationship between demand and available capacity as function of temperature. We then calculate the probability for when demand will be greater than supply for each unit increment of temperature. This probability can be described as a binomial random variable of demand being greater than supply for that hour. Finally, we estimate the duration of need by approximating the sum of binomial random variables for the day. With this methodology, one can rapidly simulate various supply mixes by fuel type to understand its effects on the final duration of need.","PeriodicalId":126918,"journal":{"name":"2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125461839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0