Risk Assessment for the Amount of Transmission System Usage Penalties via Probabilistic Load Flow

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic load flow (PLF) based approach, via Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and cross-entropy (CE) method, for evaluating possible risks associated with contracting the amount of transmission system usage (ATSU). Distribution companies (DISCOs) and the Brazilian ISO establish these contracts on yearly bases. The application of PLF via MCS-CE provides a risk assessment analysis tool to adequately manage possible penalties due to over/under ATSU contracting when several uncertainties are taken into account. The proposed tool is applied to Brazilian DISCOs considering uncertainties on demand, generation, and electric network topology, i.e., contingencies on transmission elements.