{"title":"Predicting match outcomes in football by an Ordered Forest estimator","authors":"D. Goller, M. Knaus, M. Lechner, Gabriel Okasa","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00026","url":null,"abstract":"We predict the probabilities for a draw, a home win, and an away win, for the games of the German Football Bundesliga (BL1) with a new machine-learning estimator using the (large) information available up to that date. We use these individual predictions in order to simulate a league table for every game day until the end of the season. This combination of a (stochastic) simulation approach with machine learning allows us to come up with statements about the likelihood that a particular team is reaching specific places in the final league table (i.e. champion, relegation, etc.). The machine-learning algorithm used, builds on a recent development of an Ordered Random Forest. This estimator generalises common estimators like ordered probit or ordered logit maximum likelihood and is able to recover essentially the same output as the standard estimators, such as the probabilities of the alternative conditional on covariates. The approach is already in use and results for the current season can be found at www.sew.unisg.ch/soccer_analytics.","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131032050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does live broadcasting displace gate attendances? Evidence from the English Football League","authors":"Babatunde Buraimo, Jake Owen, R. Simmons","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124302543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competing against the same team: does the length of time between the games matter? Evidence from the UEFA Champions League","authors":"Alex Krumer","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"137 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115554301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Form is temporary, class is permanent”: an English Premier League analysis","authors":"Stefan Szymanski, G. Wilkinson","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00023","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"456 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123036227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mega-events and tourism: the case of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil and the 2016 Rio Summer Olympic Games","authors":"R. Baade, R. Baumann, Victor A. Matheson","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129677556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competitive intensity: sporting rules generating it and impact on fan demand","authors":"N. Scelles, W. Andreff","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116618930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncertainty of outcome and competitive balance: impact, causes and cures","authors":"S. Késenne","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127176212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","authors":"R. Koning, S. Késenne","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126030173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Labour market restrictions in English professional team sports","authors":"P. Sloane","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00021","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126545745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dimensions of sports participation: evidence from Mexico","authors":"Jaume García, M. J. Suárez","doi":"10.4337/9781789906530.00019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906530.00019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":125066,"journal":{"name":"A Modern Guide to Sports Economics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114387345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}