{"title":"Implicit Entropic Market Risk-Premium from Interest Rate Derivatives","authors":"Juan Arismendi-Zambrano, Rafael Azevedo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3654217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3654217","url":null,"abstract":"Implicit in interest rate derivatives are Arrow–Debreu prices (or state price densities, SPDs) that contain funda- mental information for risk and portfolio management in interest rate markets. To extract such information from interest rate derivatives, we propose a nonparametric method to estimate state prices based on the minimization of the Cressie–Read (Entropic) family function between potential SPDs and the empirical probability measure. An empirical application of the method, in the US interest rates and derivatives market, shows that the entropic based risk-neutral density measure highlight potential risks previous to the 2007/2008 financial crisis, and the potential arbitrage burden during the Quantitative Easing period.<br>","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133224213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Crisis Impact on the Diversity of Financial Portfolios - Evidence from European Citizens","authors":"Dorothea Schaefer, Michael Stoeckel, H. Weser","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3696401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3696401","url":null,"abstract":"Since the 2008 Lehman bankruptcy, it is clearly shown that global economic and financial crises present major challenges to private households, requiring from them, a high level of shock absorption capacity. According to the old adage, “Do not put all the eggs in one basket”, resilience depends, to a large extent on financial diversification. So far, especially for Europe, little is known about whether and how the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) affected the diversity of private households’ investment portfolios. We tackle this research gap and explore the impact of the GFC on portfolio diversity of European private households. Our European focus complements Sierminska and Silber (2019) who explore the diversification behaviour of US households after the Lehman insolvency. Our study reveals a significant decrease in the diversity of financial portfolios. This finding is robust across distinct model specifications. In response to the GFC, evidence suggests that European households adjusted the diversity of their financial portfolio in the opposite directions to that of US households.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129861023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pandej Chintrakarn, P. Jiraporn, Sirimon Treepongkaruna
{"title":"How Do Independent Directors View Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) During a Stressful Time? Evidence From the Financial Crisis","authors":"Pandej Chintrakarn, P. Jiraporn, Sirimon Treepongkaruna","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3675569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3675569","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We explore the effect of board independence on CSR investments during a stressful time, i.e. during the Great Recession. Our results show that independent directors exhibit an unfavorable view of CSR investments during the crisis. Stronger board independence leads to a significant reduction in CSR. In particular, a rise in board independence by one standard deviation reduces CSR investments by about 8.22%. Further analysis shows that managers raised CSR investments during the crisis, consistent with the risk-mitigation view, where managers invest in CSR to reduce their risk exposure. However, managers appear to over-invest in CSR during the crisis as they are forced to cut back in the presence of a strong board, implying that part of the CSR investments during the crisis is motivated by managers’ own risk preference. Additional robustness checks corroborate the results, including fixed- and random-effects regressions, propensity score matching, and instrumental-variable analysis. Our study is the first to shed light on how independent directors view CSR during a stressful time. Finally, we show that CSR reduces firm risk substantially during the crisis, strongly confirming the risk-mitigation hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123680354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey","authors":"M. Jackson, Agathe Pernoud","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3651864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3651864","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an overview of the relationship between financial networks and systemic risk. We present a taxonomy of different types of systemic risk, differentiating between direct externalities between financial organizations (e.g., defaults, correlated portfolios, fire sales), and perceptions and feedback effects (e.g., bank runs, credit freezes). We also discuss optimal regulation and bailouts, measurements of systemic risk and financial centrality, choices by banks regarding their portfolios and partnerships, and the changing nature of financial networks.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132476255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Importance of Deposit Insurance Credibility","authors":"Diana Bonfim, João A. C. Santos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3674147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3674147","url":null,"abstract":"The success of deposit insurance arrangements at eliminating bank runs is likely closely tied to their credibility. We investigate this hypothesis building on two episodes which tested the insurance protection offered by the Portuguese arrangement in the midst of the country’s sovereign debt crisis. Our results show that Portuguese depositors responded to foreign banks’ decision to convert their subsidiaries into branches by relocating their deposits into the latter. We find a similar response following the announcement that insured depositors in Cyprus would lose part of their savings. On both instances responses are concentrated on household deposits. Given that foreign banks’ branches offer the insurance protection of these banks’ home countries, rather than that granted by their host country arrangement, our findings confirm that the credibility of the deposit insurance arrangement is critical for the protection it offers banks against the risk of depositor runs. These results show that sovereign-bank links can be detrimental to financial stability through a novel channel: the credibility of deposit insurance.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127158293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Alternative Forms of Bank Consolidation on Credit Supply and Financial Stability","authors":"S. Mayordomo, Nicola Pavanini, E. Tarantino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3648114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3648114","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2009 and 2011, the Spanish banking system underwent a restructuring process based on consolidation of savings banks. The program’s design allows us to study how alternative forms of consolidation affect credit supply and financial stability. Compared to bank business groups, we find that bank mergers’ market power produces a contraction in credit supply, higher interest rates, but also a reduction in non-performing loans. We then estimate a structural model of credit demand and supply. We show that short-run welfare gains from improved financial stability outweigh losses from reduced credit supply, while small long-run cost efficiencies generate large welfare increases.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114297083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Fragility in the Covid-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets","authors":"Antonio Falato, Itay Goldstein, Ali Hortaçsu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3656665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3656665","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using daily microdata, we document major outflows in corporate-bond funds during the COVID-19 crisis. Large outflows were sustained over weeks and most severe for funds with illiquid assets, vulnerable to fire sales, and exposed to sectors hurt by the crisis. By providing a liquidity backstop for their bond holdings, the Federal Reserve bond purchase program helped to reverse outflows especially for the most fragile funds. In turn, the program had spillover effects on primary market issuance and peer funds. The evidence points to a “bond-fund fragility channel” whereby the Fed liquidity backstop transmits to the real economy via funds.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124067717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reading the Stars","authors":"P. Williams, Yasser Abdih, E. Kopp","doi":"10.5089/9781513550916.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513550916.001","url":null,"abstract":"Following the global financial crisis, significant uncertainty has existed around the U.S. economy’s steady state equilibrium. This paper uses a factor model to provide a new approach to estimating “the stars” (i.e. the neutral interest rate, maximum employment, and the level and growth rate of potential output) that are most consistent with a medium-term equilibrium where inflation converges to the FOMC’s two percent target. It is applicable to any country with an inflation targeting central bank. It also explicitly incorporates estimates of the extensive margin of slack in the labor market, which has proven to be an important factor in describing the post-financial crisis landscape.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130059721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Quirin Fleckenstein, M. Gopal, German Gutierrez Gallardo, Sebastian Hillenbrand
{"title":"Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality","authors":"Quirin Fleckenstein, M. Gopal, German Gutierrez Gallardo, Sebastian Hillenbrand","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3629232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3629232","url":null,"abstract":"We document three new facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, lending by nonbanks is about three times as cyclical as lending by banks, even after controlling for borrower demand and loan characteristics. Second, the cyclicality of nonbanks - as opposed to bank health - explains the majority of the decline in originations during both the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis. Third, we study the main nonbank investors in the market - CLOs and loan mutual funds. Cyclicality in flows to these institutional investors explains cyclicality in nonbank lending. We provide evidence that time-series variation in the benefit from securitization (i.e., the \"CLO arbitrage\") and fragility in loan mutual fund redemptions contribute to the cyclicality of nonbanks.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126486935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tail Risk Targeting: Target VaR and CVaR Strategies","authors":"Lars Rickenberg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3444999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3444999","url":null,"abstract":"We present dynamic trading strategies that target a predefined level of risk measured by volatility, Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recent studies have shown that volatility targeting increases the risk-adjusted performance and heightens utility gains for mean-variance investors. We find that downside risk targeting outperforms volatility targeting in terms of higher Sharpe Ratios, better drawdown protection and higher utility gains for mean-variance, CRRA and loss-averse investors. In particular, a loss-averse investor is not willing to pay a positive fee to switch from a static portfolio to a volatility managed strategy, whereas the same investor would pay a fee of 18% per year to have access to the downside risk managed strategy. The performance of risk targeting can further be enhanced by switching between volatility and CVaR targeting based on estimates of whether the market will be in a bull or bear regime. This strategy successfully reduces the drawdowns during the global financial crisis and the recent corona crisis.","PeriodicalId":123550,"journal":{"name":"Financial Crises eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126568868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}