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Forex forecasting: The critical role of feature selection 外汇预测：特征选择的关键作用
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108556
Ziwei Xu , Tong Wu , Yi Zhou , Dezhen Li
{"title":"Forex forecasting: The critical role of feature selection","authors":"Ziwei Xu ,&nbsp;Tong Wu ,&nbsp;Yi Zhou ,&nbsp;Dezhen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the evolution of machine learning (ML), forecasting exchange rate dynamics has gained considerable research attention. This study innovates by integrating ML models with adaptive feature techniques to optimize prediction precision. Using principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and kernel regression for modeling, we analyze daily closing prices of 20 major currencies in foreign exchange (forex) markets. Results demonstrate that the framework achieves accurate predictions for all currencies, with minimal errors. Notably, prediction accuracy does not correlate linearly with feature quantity. Our hybrid ML-feature selection approach presents a scalable framework with potential applicability to diverse financial forecasting domains beyond exchange rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108556"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Informed short selling: Do institutional investors anticipate ESG risks? 知情卖空：机构投资者能预见ESG风险吗？
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108499
Wenjun Lu , Hanlin Luo , Yiqi He , Shouchao He , Ge Gao
{"title":"Informed short selling: Do institutional investors anticipate ESG risks?","authors":"Wenjun Lu ,&nbsp;Hanlin Luo ,&nbsp;Yiqi He ,&nbsp;Shouchao He ,&nbsp;Ge Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can institutional investors anticipate ESG-related risks before public disclosure? Using short position data under EU236 regulation and RepRisk’s ESG incident database, this study examines informational advantages among 586 European listed companies. Employing panel probit models and event studies, we find institutional investors exhibit significant anticipatory behavior prior to ESG incidents. Short-selling probability increases substantially when ESG events are expected within seven trading days. Short positions rise systematically in the five pre-event days, with minimal post-disclosure adjustment. Placebo tests based on bootstrap method confirm these patterns reflect genuine anticipation rather than random variation. Cross-dimensional analysis reveals heterogeneous advantages, with environmental events showing the strongest anticipatory effects. Our findings provide direct evidence of ESG information asymmetry, with implications for disclosure reform and sustainable investment practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108499"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of technology finance on corporate green innovation 科技金融对企业绿色创新的影响
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108553
Tian Liang , Liqin Zhang , Michal Fabuš , Chaobo Zhou , Aimaitijiang Ailikamujiang
{"title":"The impact of technology finance on corporate green innovation","authors":"Tian Liang ,&nbsp;Liqin Zhang ,&nbsp;Michal Fabuš ,&nbsp;Chaobo Zhou ,&nbsp;Aimaitijiang Ailikamujiang","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of integrating technology and finance on corporate green innovation, drawing on a quasi-natural experiment from China's pilot program between 2007 and 2023. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) framework, the research provides robust evidence that these tech-finance policies significantly bolster firm-level green innovation. Further analysis reveals that this positive effect is primarily channeled through two mechanisms: increased R&amp;D investment and enhanced environmental information transparency. Conversely, the findings indicate that stricter financial regulation attenuates this beneficial impact. Heterogeneity analysis confirms the policy's effectiveness is more pronounced among privately-held, technology-intensive firms and those located in China's eastern regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108553"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reform of the social credit system, green innovation, and corporate resilience 社会信用体系改革、绿色创新和企业韧性
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108550
Can Geng, Guozheng Wen
{"title":"Reform of the social credit system, green innovation, and corporate resilience","authors":"Can Geng,&nbsp;Guozheng Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid increasing economic uncertainty, enhancing corporate resilience has become a critical task for achieving high-quality development. Based on data from China's A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2023, this paper utilizes a quasi-natural experiment stemming from the pilot cities of the Social Credit System reform and empirically examines the impact of the Social Credit System reform policy on corporate resilience using the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The study finds that the Social Credit System reform significantly enhances corporate resilience, with green innovation playing a partial mediating role. In addition, the degree of equity balance has a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between the Social Credit System reform and corporate resilience. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy's effect on promoting resilience is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises, technology-intensive, and labor-intensive enterprises, while the impact is not significant for state-owned and asset-intensive enterprises. This paper provides theoretical and empirical support for the robust development of enterprises under the dual background of credit system construction and green transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108550"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does cross-border e-commerce reform influence corporate internationalization? 跨境电商改革如何影响企业国际化？
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108542
Haitao Fan , Shouchao He , Lin Fang , Jinhuika Ying , Jianbin Wu
{"title":"How does cross-border e-commerce reform influence corporate internationalization?","authors":"Haitao Fan ,&nbsp;Shouchao He ,&nbsp;Lin Fang ,&nbsp;Jinhuika Ying ,&nbsp;Jianbin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of China’s cross-border e-commerce reform (CBER) policy on corporate internationalization. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences approach and panel data from 2012 to 2022, we show that firms in CBER pilot zones significantly increase their internationalization level due to improved investment efficiency and reduced financial constraints. The effect is stronger in both private and traditional firms. These findings extend the institution-based view and internationalization theory by demonstrating how digital policy innovations influence firm strategy, offering practical insights for promoting cross-border e-commerce.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108542"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data assetization and corporate capital pricing efficiency 数据资产化与企业资本定价效率
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108548
Siqi Wang , Li Hou
{"title":"Data assetization and corporate capital pricing efficiency","authors":"Siqi Wang ,&nbsp;Li Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the development of the data factor market deepens, data assetization has become a key instrument for enterprises to enhance the quality of information disclosure and improve market recognition. Based on data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2023, this paper constructs a text-based data assetization indicator and empirically analyzes its impact on corporate capital pricing efficiency. The study finds that data assetization significantly enhances the efficiency of corporate capital pricing. Furthermore, financing constraints play a moderating role in the relationship between data assetization and capital pricing efficiency—specifically, the greater the financing constraints, the more pronounced the positive effect of data assetization on capital pricing efficiency. Additionally, the facilitative effect of data assetization on capital pricing efficiency is more significant among non-state-owned enterprises and technology-intensive firms. This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the market function of data assets and provides empirical support for relevant policy formulation and corporate practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108548"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of discrepancies in ESG ratings and institutional investors' shareholding on corporate sustainability development ESG评级差异和机构投资者持股比例差异对企业可持续发展的影响
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108538
Tian Shang , Gongyu Song , Yijia Yu , Yi Wei
{"title":"The impact of discrepancies in ESG ratings and institutional investors' shareholding on corporate sustainability development","authors":"Tian Shang ,&nbsp;Gongyu Song ,&nbsp;Yijia Yu ,&nbsp;Yi Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper conducts an empirical analysis based on data from non-financial listed companies in China from 2010 to 2023, exploring in depth the impact mechanism of ESG rating discrepancies and institutional investors' shareholding on corporate sustainable development. The research findings indicate that ESG rating discrepancies significantly hinder corporate sustainable development, while institutional investors' shareholding demonstrates a notable positive effect on sustainable development. Further analysis reveals that institutional investors' shareholding plays an important moderating role between ESG rating discrepancies and corporate sustainable development, with a significant difference in this moderating effect between high-tech and non-high-tech enterprises. Additionally, the degree of impact of ESG rating discrepancies on corporate sustainable development shows significant differences between high-tech and non-high-tech enterprises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108538"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The development of digital inclusive finance and rural residents’ subjective well-being 数字普惠金融发展与农村居民主观幸福感
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108530
Lihao Shen , Zhengrong Li , Shuo Wang
{"title":"The development of digital inclusive finance and rural residents’ subjective well-being","authors":"Lihao Shen ,&nbsp;Zhengrong Li ,&nbsp;Shuo Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of digital inclusive finance (DIF) on the subjective well-being (SWB) of rural residents, using 2010–2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data and the Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index of China. We find that DIF significantly enhances the SWB of rural residents, a result that remains robust after accounting for a comprehensive set of individual, household, and regional covariates and addressing endogeneity. The analysis reveals two primary channels for this effect: improving job satisfaction and raising economic benefits. The positive effect is more pronounced among low-income groups and less-educated residents, highlighting DIF’s role in alleviating financial exclusion and promoting social equity. This study provides micro-level evidence of digital finance’s role in rural revitalization and public well-being.</div></div><div><h3>JEL classifications</h3><div>300, 390, 410, 490, 810</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108530"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anti-monopoly law, data factor mobility, and the level of supply chain finance 反垄断法、数据要素流动与供应链金融水平
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108531
Ranran Wang , Yongqian Tu
{"title":"Anti-monopoly law, data factor mobility, and the level of supply chain finance","authors":"Ranran Wang ,&nbsp;Yongqian Tu","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on data from listed companies during 2014–2023, this study aims to explore the relationships among anti-monopoly law, the flow of data elements, and the level of supply chain finance. The findings are as follows: anti-monopoly law helps to enhance the level of supply chain finance; the flow of data elements promotes the development of supply chain finance; data liquidity serves as a mediating factor between anti-monopoly law and the level of supply chain finance; and the mediating role of data factor mobility between anti-monopoly law and supply chain finance shows heterogeneity between profitable and loss-making enterprises. The research results provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for optimizing antitrust policies, data flow, and supply chain finance, thereby helping to improve the efficiency of supply chain financial services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108531"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Directors' and officers' liability insurance, cybersecurity governance, and sustainable development capability of listed companies 董事责任保险、网络安全治理与上市公司可持续发展能力
IF 6.9 2区 经济学
Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108541
Yaxin Hu , Silin Chen , Yongqian Tu
{"title":"Directors' and officers' liability insurance, cybersecurity governance, and sustainable development capability of listed companies","authors":"Yaxin Hu ,&nbsp;Silin Chen ,&nbsp;Yongqian Tu","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Focusing on Chinese non-financial listed companies, this paper systematically examines the interrelationships among directors and officers liability insurance (D&amp;O insurance), cybersecurity governance, and corporate sustainable development capability. The findings indicate that both D&amp;O insurance and cybersecurity governance significantly enhance the sustainable development capability of listed companies. Moreover, a notable interaction effect exists between insurance and cybersecurity governance, where their synergistic impact further strengthens corporate sustainable development capability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals significant differences in the influence of D&amp;O insurance and cybersecurity governance on sustainable development capability across companies with varying levels of board independence. Additionally, mediation effect analysis confirms that digital transformation plays a critical intermediary role in the pathways through which D&amp;O insurance and cybersecurity governance respectively affect corporate sustainable development capability. This study enriches the cross-sectional research on corporate governance and risk management by constructing a “D&amp;O insurance-digital transformation-sustainability” conduction chain, providing an empirical evidence for building a China-specific digital governance systems and corporate resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108541"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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