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Consumption- and Productivity-Adjusted Dependency Ratio with Household Structure Heterogeneity 家庭结构异质性下的消费与生产力调整抚养比
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187951
Xuehui Han, Yuan Cheng
{"title":"Consumption- and Productivity-Adjusted Dependency Ratio with Household Structure Heterogeneity","authors":"Xuehui Han, Yuan Cheng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187951","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we construct a new dependency ratio measure by taking into account the consumption needs of the young and elderly people, and the productivity of middle-aged people. Different from the way that Cutler et al. (1990) and Weil (1999) constructed the relative needs by using the average consumptions of each age cohort of people, we estimate the factor of relative needs of people at different ages based on a regression model, which embraces the household age compositions and size in the assessment. Our analysis uses household survey data from five developing countries in Asia—Bangladesh, Cambodia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Thailand, and Viet Nam. To our best knowledge, this is among the pioneer work exploring such patterns for these countries. Focusing on the PRC, we further examine whether consumptions depend on the coresidence style. We found that (i) the consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio (both total and old dependency ratios) are consistently lower than the one that is traditionally defined across all five countries in our sample, and the differences vary from country to country; (ii) in the PRC, the differences between traditional dependency ratio and the consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio grow larger in more distant future; and (iii) in the PRC, the relatively younger elderly members between 65 and 72 years old help in reducing the consumption of young members in their households, and the elderly members who live alone consume more than their peers who live with their offspring. We also simulate the impacts of smaller households, urbanization, and economic growth on consumption for the PRC, based on our model.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"417 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124191282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Exchange Rate Dynamics and United States Dollar-Denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets 新兴市场汇率动态与美元计价主权债券价格
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187948
C. Hui, C. Lo, P. Chau
{"title":"Exchange Rate Dynamics and United States Dollar-Denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets","authors":"C. Hui, C. Lo, P. Chau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187948","url":null,"abstract":"The study conducts an empirical test on dollar-denominated sovereign credit spreads in emerging markets, including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, and Turkey to examine their relationship with each country’s exchange rate and the United States (US) Treasury yields. The relationship between each country’s exchange rate and the pricing of each country’s US-dollar denominated sovereign bonds was particularly strong after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. A two-factor pricing model is developed with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds. The correlated factors in the model are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in a low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track market credit spreads.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127961630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Place-Based Preferential Tax Policy and its Spatial Effects: Evidence from India's Program on Industrially Backward Districts 基于地的税收优惠政策及其空间效应——来自印度工业落后地区规划的证据
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187834
R. Hasan, R. Rafols
{"title":"Place-Based Preferential Tax Policy and its Spatial Effects: Evidence from India's Program on Industrially Backward Districts","authors":"R. Hasan, R. Rafols","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187834","url":null,"abstract":"The Government of India initiated a program in 1994 to promote manufacturing in districts designated as backward. The way the backward districts were identified enables us to employ a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impacts of the program. We find that the program’s 5-year tax exemption to manufacturers led to a significant increase in firm entry and employment in relatively better-off backward districts, particularly in light manufacturing industries. However, the program also resulted in negative spillover effects in districts which were neighboring these backward districts and relatively weaker in economic activity. The findings emphasize that the spatial effects of place-based policies deserve greater attention from policy makers.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129180557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Asia's Middle-Income Challenge: An Overview 亚洲的中等收入挑战:概述
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187905
Gemma Estrada, Xuehui Han, Donghyun Park, Grace Tian
{"title":"Asia's Middle-Income Challenge: An Overview","authors":"Gemma Estrada, Xuehui Han, Donghyun Park, Grace Tian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187905","url":null,"abstract":"Developing Asia has undergone a dramatic shift over the past 5 decades from a region of mainly low-income economies toward one that is largely middle income. Compared with world aggregate data, developing Asia now has a much greater proportion of middle-income economies. The region faces the challenge of sustaining rapid growth after graduating from low to middle income, and moving further to high income. Evidence shows that it takes longer for economies to move from upper-middle to high income than shifting from lower-middle to upper-middle income. Still, developing Asian economies were able to shift more quickly than the rest of the world, whether the transition is from lower-middle to upper-middle income or from upper-middle to high income. The experience of newly industrializing economies shows that innovation, human capital, and infrastructure all played a vital role in their quicker transformation from middle to high income.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116594273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Capital Flows and Financial Stability in Emerging Economies 新兴经济体的资本流动与金融稳定
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187832
Christopher F. Baum, Madhavi Pundit, Arief Ramayandi
{"title":"Capital Flows and Financial Stability in Emerging Economies","authors":"Christopher F. Baum, Madhavi Pundit, Arief Ramayandi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187832","url":null,"abstract":"There is mixed evidence for the impact of international capital flows on financial sector's stability. This paper investigates the relationship between components of gross capital flows and various financial stability indicators for 16 emerging and newly industrialized economies. Departing from panel data methods, for each financial stability proxy, we employ systems of seemingly unrelated regression estimators to allow variation in the estimated relationship across countries, while permitting crossequation restrictions to be imposed within a country. The findings suggest that, after controlling for macroeconomic factors, there are significant effects of different gross capital flow measures on the financial stability proxies. However, the effects are not homogeneous across our sample economies and across flows. Country-specific financial and macroeconomic characteristics help to explain some of these differences.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132684992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Structural Reform and Productivity Growth in Emerging Europe and Central Asia 欧洲和中亚新兴经济体的结构改革与生产率增长
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3187854
Yordan Georgiev, Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, A. Plekhanov
{"title":"Structural Reform and Productivity Growth in Emerging Europe and Central Asia","authors":"Yordan Georgiev, Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, A. Plekhanov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3187854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3187854","url":null,"abstract":"Since 1990, countries in emerging Europe and Central Asia have undergone comprehensive economic transformation. These reforms helped achieve an impressive degree of income convergence toward the levels of the advanced economies, although at the cost of rising inequality and lower life satisfaction. Over the last decade, both the speed of reforms and economic growth have slowed down markedly. To sustain convergence, greater emphasis needs to be put on structural reforms, facilitating innovation and boosting firm productivity while, at the same time, taking into account the distributional impact of reforms.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122667405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Trade in Health Products: Reducing Trade Barriers for Better Health 卫生产品贸易:减少贸易壁垒促进健康
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-01-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2955559
Matthias Helble, Ben Shepherd
{"title":"Trade in Health Products: Reducing Trade Barriers for Better Health","authors":"Matthias Helble, Ben Shepherd","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2955559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2955559","url":null,"abstract":"Trade in health products has been flourishing in recent years as the demand for better health has been growing throughout the world. At the same time, trade in health products is hampered by substantive trade barriers. In this paper, we present evidence that countries around the world still apply tariffs and nontariff measures that increase prices and limit the availability of health-related products such as pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medical equipment. The case for liberalizing trade in these products is therefore strong. In addition, we show that improving trade facilitation performance, using the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement as a starting point, can be linked to improved handling of health-related products such as vaccines which, in turn, would boost usage. In the last part of the paper, we study the price differences for insulin across countries. We observe that the price of insulin has various determinants, one of them being open trade: the higher the level of competition between manufacturers, the lower the price of insulin. In summary, lowering trade barriers on health products can make a substantive contribution to building up health systems and lowering out-of-pocket payments of patients.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127032202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Exploring the Trade–Urbanization Nexus in Developing Economies: Evidence and Implications 探索发展中经济体的贸易-城市化关系:证据与启示
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-01-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2928701
Y. Zhang, G. Wan
{"title":"Exploring the Trade–Urbanization Nexus in Developing Economies: Evidence and Implications","authors":"Y. Zhang, G. Wan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2928701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2928701","url":null,"abstract":"Developing countries have seen a rapid rise in population urbanization in the past decades. At the same time, they have participated actively in the process of globalization. However, possible interlinks between population urbanization and trade openness in developing economies have been ignored by present literature. We propose a simple framework explaining the cereals trade–population urbanization nexus, showing how cereals supply constrains population urbanization and how international trade can change this constraint. Then, we present historical evidence, empirical tests, and case studies from the People’s Republic of China, and India further highlighting the critical role of cereals trade in population urbanization in developing economies. Policy suggestions that may help developing countries achieve more inclusive and sustainable urban development are discussed in the final section of this paper.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122948881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Trade, Infrastructure, and Development 贸易、基础设施和发展
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2016-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2893415
M. Olarreaga
{"title":"Trade, Infrastructure, and Development","authors":"M. Olarreaga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2893415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2893415","url":null,"abstract":"This paper surveys the literature on trade and development, especially on complementarities associated with trade infrastructure. The empirical literature shows that, on average, trade causes growth, but the relationship is far from homogeneous across countries since initial conditions matter. Although the empirical literature shows that investment in soft and hard infrastructure has an unambiguously positive impact on trade flows, the theoretical literature argues that priority should be given to investments in national rather than international infrastructure in countries with relatively poor national infrastructure. This paper finds that data support this prediction.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129882603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
A Poverty Line Contingent on Reference Groups: Implications for the Extent of Poverty in Some Asian Countries 以参照群体为条件的贫困线:对一些亚洲国家贫困程度的影响
Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2016-11-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2893052
S. Chakravarty, N. Chattopadhyay, J. Silber
{"title":"A Poverty Line Contingent on Reference Groups: Implications for the Extent of Poverty in Some Asian Countries","authors":"S. Chakravarty, N. Chattopadhyay, J. Silber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2893052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2893052","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the number of poor in various countries in Asia by applying an “amalgam poverty line”, which is a weighted average of an absolute poverty line (such as $1.25 per day or $1.45 per day) and a reference income (such as the mean or the median income). The number of poor is computed under various values of the weight applied to the absolute poverty line, namely 100%, 90%, 66%, and 50%. The paper provides estimates of the headcount ratio and poverty gap ratio under the various scenarios for 25 different countries or regions examined.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114193176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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