ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Economic Hysteresis and its Modeling","authors":"I. Mayergoyz, C. Korman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3932547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3932547","url":null,"abstract":"Hysteresis is treated as a history dependent branching, and the use of the classical Preisach model for the analysis of macroeconomic hysteresis is first discussed. Then, a new Preisach-type model is introduced as a macroeconomic aggregation of more realistic microeconomic hysteresis than in the case of the classical Preisach model. It is demonstrated that this model is endowed with a more general mechanism of branching and may account for the continuous evolution of the economy and its effect on hysteresis. Furthermore, it is shown that the sluggishness of economic recovery is an intrinsic manifestation of hysteresis branching.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73236516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit Horizons","authors":"N. Kiyotaki, John. Moore, Shengxing Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3734844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3734844","url":null,"abstract":"Entrepreneurs appear to borrow largely against their near-term revenues, even when their investment has a longer horizon. In this paper, we develop a model of credit horizons. A question of particular concern to us is whether persistently low interest rates can stifle economic activity. With this in mind, our model is of a small open economy where the world interest rate is taken to be exogenous. We show that a permanent fall in the interest rate can reduce aggregate investment and growth, and even lead to a drop in the welfare of everyone in the domestic economy. We use our framework to examine how credit horizons interact with plant dynamics and the evolution of productivity. Finally, we speculate that the measurement of total investment may camouflage the true level of productive investment in plant and human capital, and give too rosy a picture of property-fueled booms sparked by low interest rates.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72770843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models","authors":"J. Kukacka, Stephen Sacht","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3792139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792139","url":null,"abstract":"This paper offers a simulation-based method for the estimation of heuristic switching in nonlinear macroeconomic models. Heuristic switching is an important feature of modeling strategy since it uses simple decision rules of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. The simulation study shows that the proposed simulated maximum likelihood method identifies the behavioral effects that stay hidden for standard econometric approaches. In the empirical application, we estimate the structural and behavioral parameters of the US economy. We are especially able to reliably identify the intensity of choice that governs the models’ nonlinear dynamics.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77051140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach","authors":"K. B. Ogutu, F. D'Andrea, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3697299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3697299","url":null,"abstract":"The when and/or how improved environmental-performance leads to improved macroeconomic-performance under increasing likelihood of global-warming abatement are not well understood. We thus formulate a simple Stochastic Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB-S) model that is qualitatively oriented—it is constructed to account for the main global macroeconomic and climate facts and is designed, in particular, to offer insights toward sustainable climate policy formulation. The paper begins with climate, carbon-cycle, and biosphere modules. A detailed description of stylized long-run macroeconomic facts and the core framework for replicating them, along with an extension to include endogenous technological-change, endogenous population, and energy depletion is added. Climate affects economic activity through damage appearing in the macroeconomic structure. The results show that abatement delivers a win-win solution by ~2050. However, the non-business-as-usual mitigation measures are wrought with high unemployment rates. This paper therefore demonstrates that a sustainable climate policy should be reinforced with appropriate economic measures that restrain the threat for the employment market and the possible high income/wealth disparity.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76127162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post Keynesian Economics Is Based on Joan Robinson’s Many Canards About Supposed Gaping Holes in Keynes’s Theory: The Real Problem Is Gaping Holes and Gross Ignorance in the Post Keynesian Understanding of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability","authors":"M. E. Brady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3637692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3637692","url":null,"abstract":"There is no Post Keynesian economist or allied philosopher who can comprehend the following, basic 100 year old fact-Keynes, building on Boole ‘s The Laws of Thought (1854), created an interval valued approach to probability, as well as a decision weight approach, the c coefficient, that re-expresses interval valued probability as non additive and non linear probability, that has nothing to do with radical uncertainty or ordinal probability as asserted continuously for 50 years. \u0000 \u0000Consider the example of R. Skidelsky. R. Skidelsky was very much like Joan Robinson in his academic skills, upon whom he has built his view of Keynes’s contributions. R. Skidelsky, like Joan Robinson, has admitted many times that he is mathematically illiterate, inept, and innumerant. This self admitted fact made Skidelsky very susceptible and receptive to the Frank P. Ramsey myth, recently resurrected by C. MIsak (2020). This myth purports that Ramsey, an 18 year old teenager who came to Cambridge University in 1921, was able to convince Keynes in 1922 that his logical theory of probability, as presented in his 1921 A Treatise on Probability, was full of logical, epistemological and philosophical errors that demolished the entire logical foundation and edifice of Keynes’s theory. Of course, given the fact that Keynes’s theory is built directly on a foundation and edifice of George Boole’s mathematical propositional logic and algebra,which Ramsey (nor any other supporter of Ramsey, such as R.B. Braithwaite) dared not challenge at any time in his lifetime, the belief that Keynes, who had used his approach to approximation and inexact measurement in his Indian Currency and Finance and Economic Consequences of the Peace successfully, would accept Ramsey’s purely academic theory based on additivity and linearity, which Keynes knew did not hold at all in the real world of decision making involving missing evidence and vague, conflicting knowledge, is simply silly. Keynes,of course, realized that Ramsey’s great formal, intellectual skills would make him a great academic thinker. \u0000 \u0000The acceptance by all Post Keynesians and heterodox economists, that Keynes capitulated, either in part or wholly, to Ramsey, has led to a complete failure to properly connect the Keynes of the A Treatise on Probability to the Keynes of the General Theory. This is very similar to the failure of Adam Smith academics to properly connect the Smith of The Theory of Moral Sentiments to the Smith of The Wealth of Nations. Both Keynes’s and Smith’s are, of course, identical in both books. \u0000 \u0000The Ramsey myth has been continually promulgated since 1921. Misak’s 2020 book on Ramsey continues to make assertions about Keynes which are directly contradicted by Keynes himself. The best exposition that explodes the Ramsey myth is the Keynes-Townshend correspondence over the TP of 1937-38, where non numerical probability, weight of the evidence, and the logical theory of probability, and the relation to the GT ar","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87706648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Karl Mittermaier and the Hands of Classical Liberalism","authors":"D. Klein","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12403","url":null,"abstract":"Karl Mittermaier (1938–2016) completed a work in 1987 titled The Hand Behind the Invisible Hand: Dogmatic and Pragmatic Views on Free Markets and the State of Economic Theory, published for the first time in 2020. Here I treat Mittermaier's rich meditation, which I interpret as a pursuit of greater coherence in classical liberal thought. Mittermaier emphasises the moral, cultural, and institutional preconditions of a liberal market order, and argues that some of the preconditions depend on people feeling that they have reason to embrace such classical liberal principles. The preconditions, then, depend in part on the perception of coherence and appeal of the liberal order.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79312888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Block Versions of R functions in 'generalCorr' for Generalized Correlations and Causal Paths","authors":"H. Vinod","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3478318","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3478318","url":null,"abstract":"Karl Pearson developed the correlation coefficient r(X,Y) in 1890s vastly underestimates dependence between two series. Vinod(2014} develops new generalized correlation coefficients so that when r*(Y|X) > r*(X|Y) then X is the \"kernel cause'' of Y. Vinod (2015) reports simulations favoring kernel causality. An R software package called 'generalCorr' (at r-project.org) computes generalized correlations, partial correlations, and plausible causal paths. This short paper describes the block versions of various R functions newly added to the 'generalCorr' package in October 2019. Newly published Vinod (2019) has the latest rendering of the theory behind causal paths including theorems with proofs. The function 'causeSummBlk(.)' is recommended for practitioners.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88734085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Robustness","authors":"Bálint Szoke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2955235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2955235","url":null,"abstract":"I estimate and evaluate a model with a representative agent who is concerned that the persistence properties of her baseline model of consumption and inflation are misspecified. Coping with model uncertainty, she discovers a pessimistically biased worst-case model that dictates her behavior. I combine interest rates and aggregate macro series with cross-equation restrictions implied by robust control theory to estimate this worst-case distribution and show that (1) the model’s predictions about key features of the yield curve are in line with the data, and (2) the degree of pessimism underlying these findings is plausible. Interpreting the worst-case as the agent’s subjective belief, I derive model implied interest rate forecasts and compare them with analogous survey expectations. I find that the model can replicate the average bias found in the survey.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90221498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Political Economy of ‘Ordered Competition’ in European Telecoms","authors":"Dmitrii Trubnikov, E. Trubnikova","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12349","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses the current efforts of policymakers to spur development of telecommunications infrastructure. It argues that the policy of ‘ordered competition’, widely implemented in this sector, has formed a highly beneficial environment for major players, who have the ability to influence the regulatory machine. The system protects the status quo, impedes the efficiency of the market process and allows unnecessary public subsidy of the industry's development. The main alternative to this regulatory regime is structural reform of the industry and the formation of a genuinely competitive marketplace which could function without ex ante regulation.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82289634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Logarithmic Depreciation","authors":"Evan W. Anderson, W. Brock","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3022609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3022609","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies logarithmic depreciation which is similar to conventional geometric depreciation, except that capital and investment are replaced by their logarithms. We provide empirical and theoretical evidence that logarithmic depreciation can account for capital depreciation better than geometric depreciation and about as well as a more general method that has an additional parameter. We document that consumption and investment decisions in the United States and other countries appear to be made under the erroneous assumption that capital approximately depreciates geometrically and the welfare losses from doing so are large.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76602140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}