后凯恩斯主义经济学基于琼·罗宾逊对凯恩斯理论中所谓漏洞的诸多质疑:真正的问题是后凯恩斯主义对凯恩斯《概率论》理解中的漏洞和严重无知

M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

没有一个后凯恩斯主义的经济学家或联合哲学家能够理解下面这个100年前的基本事实——凯恩斯在布尔的《思想法则》(1854)的基础上,创造了一种区间值概率方法,以及一种决策权重方法,即c系数,它将区间值概率重新表达为非加性和非线性概率,与连续50年断言的根本不确定性或有序概率无关。考虑R. Skidelsky的例子。斯基德尔斯基在学术技能上与琼·罗宾逊非常相似,他对凯恩斯贡献的看法建立在琼·罗宾逊的基础之上。斯基德尔斯基和琼·罗宾逊一样,多次承认自己不懂数学、不懂数学、不懂数学。这一自我承认的事实使斯基德尔斯基非常容易受到弗兰克·p·拉姆齐神话的影响,最近由c·米萨克(2020)复活。这个神话声称,1921年来到剑桥大学的18岁少年拉姆齐在1922年说服了凯恩斯,他在1921年发表的《概率论》中提出的逻辑概率论充满了逻辑、认识论和哲学上的错误,这些错误摧毁了凯恩斯理论的整个逻辑基础和大厦。当然,考虑到凯恩斯的理论直接建立在乔治·布尔的数学命题逻辑和代数的基础和建筑上,而拉姆齐(也没有拉姆齐的任何其他支持者,如R.B.布雷斯韦特)在他的一生中都不敢挑战,凯恩斯在他的印度货币、金融和和平的经济后果中成功地使用了他的近似和不精确测量方法,凯恩斯知道,拉姆齐基于可加性和线性的纯学术理论在现实世界的决策中根本站不住脚,因为现实世界中存在缺乏证据和模糊、相互矛盾的知识。当然,凯恩斯意识到,拉姆齐出色的形式和智力技能将使他成为一名伟大的学术思想家。所有后凯恩斯主义者和非正统经济学家都接受凯恩斯部分或全部向拉姆齐投降,这导致了将《概率论》中的凯恩斯与《通论》中的凯恩斯正确地联系起来的彻底失败。这与亚当·斯密学者未能正确地将斯密的《道德情操论》与斯密的《国富论》联系起来非常相似。当然,凯恩斯和斯密的观点在两本书中都是相同的。自1921年以来,拉姆齐的神话一直被不断地传播。米萨克2020年关于拉姆齐的书继续对凯恩斯做出断言,而这些断言与凯恩斯本人直接相矛盾。粉碎拉姆齐神话的最佳阐释是凯恩斯-汤森在1937-38年TP上的通信,其中涵盖了非数值概率、证据的权重、概率的逻辑理论以及与GT的关系。书中没有提到弗兰克·拉姆齐(Frank Ramsey),也没有提到凯恩斯(Keynes)或汤森(Townshend)的主观概率论。弗兰克·拉姆齐的消除神话是一个必要的步骤,可以取得任何进展之前必须采取理解之间的联系TP和GT。从1986年的哈恩和斯沃尔什2001年Togati早在2020年,我们可以看到,真正的问题不在于任何差距在凯恩斯的理论中,但失明后凯恩斯主义和正统经济学家对于TP和GT,要么是无法或不愿读TP和/或20章,GT的21 19章和附录。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post Keynesian Economics Is Based on Joan Robinson’s Many Canards About Supposed Gaping Holes in Keynes’s Theory: The Real Problem Is Gaping Holes and Gross Ignorance in the Post Keynesian Understanding of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability
There is no Post Keynesian economist or allied philosopher who can comprehend the following, basic 100 year old fact-Keynes, building on Boole ‘s The Laws of Thought (1854), created an interval valued approach to probability, as well as a decision weight approach, the c coefficient, that re-expresses interval valued probability as non additive and non linear probability, that has nothing to do with radical uncertainty or ordinal probability as asserted continuously for 50 years. Consider the example of R. Skidelsky. R. Skidelsky was very much like Joan Robinson in his academic skills, upon whom he has built his view of Keynes’s contributions. R. Skidelsky, like Joan Robinson, has admitted many times that he is mathematically illiterate, inept, and innumerant. This self admitted fact made Skidelsky very susceptible and receptive to the Frank P. Ramsey myth, recently resurrected by C. MIsak (2020). This myth purports that Ramsey, an 18 year old teenager who came to Cambridge University in 1921, was able to convince Keynes in 1922 that his logical theory of probability, as presented in his 1921 A Treatise on Probability, was full of logical, epistemological and philosophical errors that demolished the entire logical foundation and edifice of Keynes’s theory. Of course, given the fact that Keynes’s theory is built directly on a foundation and edifice of George Boole’s mathematical propositional logic and algebra,which Ramsey (nor any other supporter of Ramsey, such as R.B. Braithwaite) dared not challenge at any time in his lifetime, the belief that Keynes, who had used his approach to approximation and inexact measurement in his Indian Currency and Finance and Economic Consequences of the Peace successfully, would accept Ramsey’s purely academic theory based on additivity and linearity, which Keynes knew did not hold at all in the real world of decision making involving missing evidence and vague, conflicting knowledge, is simply silly. Keynes,of course, realized that Ramsey’s great formal, intellectual skills would make him a great academic thinker. The acceptance by all Post Keynesians and heterodox economists, that Keynes capitulated, either in part or wholly, to Ramsey, has led to a complete failure to properly connect the Keynes of the A Treatise on Probability to the Keynes of the General Theory. This is very similar to the failure of Adam Smith academics to properly connect the Smith of The Theory of Moral Sentiments to the Smith of The Wealth of Nations. Both Keynes’s and Smith’s are, of course, identical in both books. The Ramsey myth has been continually promulgated since 1921. Misak’s 2020 book on Ramsey continues to make assertions about Keynes which are directly contradicted by Keynes himself. The best exposition that explodes the Ramsey myth is the Keynes-Townshend correspondence over the TP of 1937-38, where non numerical probability, weight of the evidence, and the logical theory of probability, and the relation to the GT are covered. There is no mention made of Frank Ramsey or the subjective theory of probability by Keynes or Townshend. The elimination of the Frank Ramsey myth is a necessary step that must be taken before any progress can be made on understanding the linkages between the TP and GT. From Hahn and Skidelsky in 1986 to Walsh in 2001 to Togati in 2020, we can see that the real problem is not any gaps in Keynes’s theory, but the blindness of Post Keynesian and heterodox economists regarding the TP and GT, who are either unable or unwilling to read the TP and/or chapters 20, 21 and appendix to chapter 19 of the GT.
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