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The return to classroom instruction time in private and public schools 私立和公立学校课堂教学时间的回归
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02560-9
{"title":"The return to classroom instruction time in private and public schools","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s00181-024-02560-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02560-9","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Private school students outperform their public school peers on standardized tests. Extensive effort has been devoted to testing whether the private–public gap is attributable to the schools themselves or simply due to peer effects or positive selection into private schools. Receiving far less attention is the extent to which the return to specific schooling inputs differs between private and public schools. We find evidence of an overall positive effect of class time on academic achievement and little evidence of a premium to time in private schools. Indeed, the benefit of added time appears similar in both settings. The lack of a private school premium to class time is consistent with the notion of positive selection into private schools.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"254 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139757951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Old-age unemployment and labour supply: an application to Belgium 老年失业和劳动力供应：比利时的应用情况
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-28 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02544-1
Octave De Brouwer, Ilan Tojerow
{"title":"Old-age unemployment and labour supply: an application to Belgium","authors":"Octave De Brouwer, Ilan Tojerow","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02544-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02544-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the last two decades, social security reforms in several European countries have turned early retirement routes for older workers increasingly difficult. The size of the effects of these reforms on labour supply and social security transfers, and how these effects interact with workers’ characteristics have yet to be measured. This article sheds light on this issue by exploring the consequences of postponing access to an old-age unemployment programme—from age 58 to 60—in Belgium. The programme provides laid-off workers with a combination of unemployment benefits and a monthly supplement paid by the employer until the full retirement age. Exploiting register data on the universe of workers and using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, the authors find that UCS eligibility negatively affects employment participation but also mitigates older workers’ participation in other social security programmes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139590390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regression discontinuity design with principal stratification in the mixed proportional hazard model: an application to the long-run impact of education on longevity 混合比例危险模型中的主分层回归不连续设计：应用于教育对长寿的长期影响
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02553-0
Govert E. Bijwaard, Andrew M. Jones
{"title":"Regression discontinuity design with principal stratification in the mixed proportional hazard model: an application to the long-run impact of education on longevity","authors":"Govert E. Bijwaard, Andrew M. Jones","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02553-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02553-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the long-run impact of education on longevity using data for England and Wales from the Health and Lifestyle Survey. Longevity is modelled by survival analysis using a mixed proportional hazard model. For identification we propose a Regression Discontinuity Design implied by an increase in the minimum school leaving age in 1947 (from 14 to 15) combined with a principal stratification method for estimation of the mortality hazard rate. This method allows us to derive the causal effect of extended education on longevity. In line with earlier studies we do not find credible evidence of a causal impact of the additional years of schooling that were induced by the reform on longevity.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139580999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Japan’s dual labor market and its macroeconomic characteristics 日本的二元劳动力市场及其宏观经济特征
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02555-6
Hirokazu Mizobata
{"title":"Japan’s dual labor market and its macroeconomic characteristics","authors":"Hirokazu Mizobata","doi":"10.1007/s00181-024-02555-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02555-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the characteristics of Japan’s dual labor market, which consists of standard and non-standard employment. I conduct labor stock and flow analyses using Japanese Labour Force Survey data from 2002 to 2022. The stock analysis suggests that, in the long run, non-standard employment improves labor market conditions, such as employment and unemployment rates. Changes in the composition of standard and non-standard employment reduce the average hours per worker in the long run but play a limited role over the business cycles. The flow analysis reveals that inflows and outflows involving non-standard employment have relatively significant effects on changes in employment and unemployment rates. This feature of non-standard employment is more pronounced for females and young individuals. The flow analysis also shows that within-employment reallocation, that is, transitions between standard and non-standard employment, primarily determines the changes in the share of non-standard employment. The sluggish movement between these two types of contracts leads to a persistently high level of non-standard employment in Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting the volatility of European Union allowance futures with macroeconomic variables using the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model 使用 GJR-GARCH-MIDAS 模型利用宏观经济变量预测欧盟津贴期货的波动性
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02551-2
Huawei Niu, Tianyu Liu
{"title":"Forecasting the volatility of European Union allowance futures with macroeconomic variables using the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model","authors":"Huawei Niu, Tianyu Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02551-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02551-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Building on the GJR-GARCH model, this paper uses the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) approach to link monthly realized volatility of EU carbon future prices and macroeconomic variables to the volatility of EU carbon futures market and proposes the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating macroeconomic variables including the economic sentiment indicator of the EU, the harmonized index of consumer prices of the EU, the European economic policy uncertainty index and ECB’s marginal lending facility rate (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models). An empirical analysis based on the monthly macroeconomic variables and daily EUA futures data shows that the above four low-frequency macroeconomic variables have significant positive or negative impacts on the long-term volatility of EUA future prices, respectively. The GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models significantly outperform other competing models, including the GJR-GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and standard GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model, in terms of out-of-sample volatility forecasting, which suggests that macroeconomic variables contain important information for EUA future price volatility forecasts. In particular, the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model with harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-HICP model) performs best in out-of-sample volatility forecasting, and our findings are robust to different forecasting windows.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"392 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139580998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determining economic factors for sex trafficking in the United States using count time series regression 利用计数时间序列回归确定美国性交易的经济因素
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02549-w
{"title":"Determining economic factors for sex trafficking in the United States using count time series regression","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02549-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02549-w","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The article presents a robust quantitative approach for determining significant economic factors for sex trafficking in the United States. The aim is to study monthly counts of sex trafficking-related convictions, and use a wide range of economic variables as covariates to investigate their effect on conviction counts. A count time series model is considered along with a regression setup to include economic time series as covariates (economic factors) to explain the counts on sex trafficking-related convictions. The statistical significance of these economic factors is investigated and the significant factors are ranked based on appropriate model selection methods. The inclusion of time-lagged versions of the economic factor time series in the regression model is also explored. Our findings indicate that economic factors relating to immigration policy, consumer price index and labor market regulations are the most significant in explaining sex trafficking convictions. </p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139590447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine 入侵乌克兰后的悲观预期
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3
Domenico Depalo
{"title":"Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Domenico Depalo","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB, I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine–Russia war. I find that individuals expected lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war was larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency. Hence, the expectation formation process might have changed.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139553515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
School starting age and the impact on school admission 入学年龄及对入学的影响
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02546-z
Julio Cáceres-Delpiano, Eugenio Giolito
{"title":"School starting age and the impact on school admission","authors":"Julio Cáceres-Delpiano, Eugenio Giolito","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02546-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02546-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study employs Chilean administrative data to investigate the impact of school starting age on the characteristics of students’ initial enrolled schools. Employing minimum age requirements and an RD design to mitigate endogeneity concerns, we identify benefits linked to commencing school at a later age. Our findings demonstrate that children starting school at an older age enroll in institutions with higher average scores in standardized tests and interact with older peers whose parents have higher education levels. Furthermore, they display a heightened likelihood of entering schools employing academic selection methods, a greater proportion of full-time teachers, and a larger percentage of instructors with a 4-year college degree. The analysis by level of education of the parents and gender reveals that most of our results are driven by parents with lower levels of education and girls. Subgroup analyses further reveal that many of our results are driven by parents with lower levels of education and parents of girls.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139421006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Late-in-life investments in human capital: evidence on the (unintended) effects of a pension reform 晚年人力资本投资：养老金改革（意外）影响的证据
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02538-z
Simone Chinetti
{"title":"Late-in-life investments in human capital: evidence on the (unintended) effects of a pension reform","authors":"Simone Chinetti","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02538-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02538-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies whether forced increases in the residual working life, determined by a restrictive pension reform, induce additional training activities. By exploiting a sizable Italian pension reform, in a difference-in-differences setting, I find that a lengthening of the working horizon increases, through training, workers’ human capital. Additionally, I show that the response to the reform appears very heterogeneous and depends on gender, age, education, marital status, sector of employment and firm size. My estimates suggest, furthermore, that these individual positive effects are not attributable to employers’ sponsorship.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139396622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
k-Class instrumental variables quantile regression k 类工具变量量化回归
IF 3.2 4区 经济学
Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02543-2
David M. Kaplan, Xin Liu
{"title":"k-Class instrumental variables quantile regression","authors":"David M. Kaplan, Xin Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02543-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02543-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With mean instrumental variables regression, <i>k</i>-class estimators have the potential to reduce bias, which is larger with weak instruments. With instrumental variables quantile regression, weak instrument-robust estimation is even more important because there is less guidance for assessing instrument strength. Motivated by this, we introduce an analogous <i>k</i>-class of estimators for instrumental variables quantile regression. We show the first-order asymptotic distribution under strong instruments is equivalent for all conventional choices of <i>k</i>. We evaluate finite-sample median bias in simulations for a variety of <i>k</i>, including the <i>k</i> for the conventional <i>k</i>-class estimator corresponding to limited information maximum likelihood (LIML). Computation is fast for all <i>k</i>, and compared to the <span>(k=1)</span> benchmark estimator (analogous to 2SLS), using the LIML <i>k</i> reliably reduces median bias in a variety of data-generating processes, especially when the degree of overidentification is larger. We also revisit some empirical estimates of consumption Euler equations derived from quantile utility maximization. All code is provided online (https://kaplandm.github.io).\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139374693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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